Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 8.08 Units Loss
• -10.25% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Bulls 9:10am AEST

Turner is a huuuge beneficiary of Sabonis missing getting a wild stat increase across the board as he’s used in all the PNR action instead of Sabonis creating so many more opportunities. Gets a 7.3% usage bump with Sabonis off with an amazing 23/9.6/2.0 per 36 line vs just 12.3/6.8/1.0 with Sabonis on the court. I quite like the matchup here against the Bulls as Vooch will be sitting back in drop coverage so Turner should get a ton of clear air to get up some 3 pointers. Sabonis missed his first game of the season on Sunday and Turner had a nice game with 18/7/1 in 38 minutes. Turner has quite good splits at home this season with a 15.2/7.9/1.2 per 36 line (with Sabonis), and without Sabonis here we can feel pretty good about him getting his 36 minutes (Vooch doesn’t draw many fouls at all either).

• Myles Turner over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Myles Turner over 29.5 Points + Reboudns + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

76ers vs Celtics 9:40am AEST

His line has come way down here with Embiid being active, but he really hasn’t had much impact on Simmons statistical output this season as he’s at 15.3/7.9/7.6 with Embiid, and 15.2/8.0/6.5 without him and we have quite a large sample. Embiid was back for one game against the Wolves and Simmons covered this fairly comfortably with 14/8/6 in 33 minutes. Boston really need to win games and without Fournier + the national TV slot, expect Tatum to be set for big minutes and it wouldn’t at all surprise to see Doc match Simmons minutes up with Tatum so he should be set to play 36+ also.

• Ben Simmons over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.1 units

Blazers vs Clippers 12:10pm AEST

This Portland team just can’t get any stops and have the 28th ranked defence since the ASB and the 29th ranked defence on the season. They’ve been a little better over the last 2 weeks up to 19th, but so much of that is on Nurkic who they’ll be without today. I’m expecting Beverley to make his return today, which gives all the other starters a little bump as he’ll probably slide back into the starting line-up and he has a  14.5% usage compared to Reggie’s 19.0%. We have a growing sample of Kawhi/PG/Morris/Zubac, and in 157 minutes together it’s really been Morris who’s the stand-out. He has the second highest usage out of the 4 at 22.5% (PG 24.1%), but takes the most FGA at 16 per 36 minutes (PG 15.1, higher usage due to the 2.7 vs 0.5 turnovers per 36) and is at 23.5 points per 36 minutes (2nd Kawhi 20.1). Without Nurkic today and Portland seemingly committed to their 3 guard line-up, I’d expect Covington to guard Kawhi (love the spot for Kawhi too, o36.5 PRA close to being a bet), Powell to guard PG which will leave CJ on Morris. Morris has done a really good job of taking advantage of mis-matches and his mid range game has been good of late. Portland have also been cheating out of the corners a ton, giving up the 26th most corner 3’s in the league so he should get some quality looks where he’s been damaging this season at 54%. Getting a really strong price on the 20+ here which he’s hit in 3 of his last 5. Skewing a little bit more alts as the Clippers rotation can be a little messy.

• Marcus Morris over 13.5 Points @ 1.91 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.4 units

Bucks vs Warriors 12:10pm AEST

Giannis has only missed 2 games that Jrue has played in since returning from his COVID absence and he’s racked up a cool 25 dimes in them with games of 11 and 14. Jrue had a huge 23 potentials in just 29 minutes against Indiana then had 18 potentials just a few days ago against the Kings. Gets another favourable matchup here against the Warriors who have given up the 7th most assists since the ASB.

• Jrue Holiday over 7.5 Assists @ 2.15 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jrue Holiday over 9.5 Assists @ 4.30 with B365 – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 5.1 units out

• Myles Turner over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Myles Turner over 29.5 Points + Reboudns + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Ben Simmons over 12.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Marcus Morris over 13.5 Points @ 1.91 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Jrue Holiday over 7.5 Assists @ 2.15 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jrue Holiday over 9.5 Assists @ 4.30 with B365 – 0.3 units
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