Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Knicks vs Blazers 5:10am AEST

Screwed up last game by not having a saver on Payton again as him and Quickley are so highly correlated with almost no overlap (only 21 minutes on the season). As long as Payton is starting, Thibs will give him the chance to produce and if he gets off to a nice start then will roll with him. Really can’t have much on this as it’s high risk but these odds are crazy if he gets off to a decent start. He’s a high usage guy at 21.9% for the season (26.8% last game) so you can feel pretty confident he will take some shots in his first stint. It’s an awesome matchup against this awful Portland defence (2nd worst over the last 2 weeks) who gives up the 5th most amount of points to opposing PGs. Going to have to be playing very well to get up to 34 minutes again but it just shows the upside is there for him. Happy to multi with Quickley unders to boost the odds here as the only way Elf gets to 15/20 is if he’s taking Quickley’s minutes.

• Elfrid Payton over 14.5 Points / Immanuel Quickley under 15.5 Points @ 8.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.2 units
• Elfird Payton over 19.5 Points / Immanuel Quickley under 15.5 Points @ 51.00 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units

Bulls vs Magic 11:10am AEST

“Finally someone has some lines up for him! Been awfully painful the last few games watching him ball out and not being able to bet. He has been so so good of late for the Bulls doing a bit of everything on both ends. Has stepped up in a huge way for them with WCJ out and his role in the rotation is extremely safe right now. Over the last 4 games he has a team second +19.8 On/Off net rating differential and has been producing at a very high level averaging 14.0/8.0/7.5 in that span covering this line in all of them. For those who have been around since the start of the season, you’ll remember I was pretty aggressively attacking WCJ’s assist lines as Donovan loves to get the ball in the hands of his big man and initiate the offence from there. Thad is a perfect fit for him as he is a very smart passer and is enough of a scoring threat that he creates a ton of problems for the oppositions defence. Has upside in all 3 categories so it’s a shame we aren’t getting his line’s on TAB for a PRA bet, but we are getting some huge odds here so am happy to have a good crack at them. Has had 8+ rebounds in 3 of his last 4, including an 11 rebound game and has 8+ assists in 3 of his last 4, including an 11 assist game.”

Ugh. We had one shot at the Thad lines yesterday and we launched at them but ended up coming out of that one with an L as he was one board and one rebound shy of his lines at the really strong prices. Very very frustrating game as we missed Cole 10+ as well. Anyways, big odds are gone now and his assists do come down a touch without Lauri out there but the role is too good to pass up on. He’s a little banged up and I’m always hesitant of guys on b2bs, but need some exposure here.

• Thaddeous Young over 7.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Thaddeous Young over 9.5 Assists @ 26.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Thaddeous Young Triple-Double @ 46.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Cavs vs Bucks 12:10pm AEST

“Bobby has been playing so well that Bud has started limiting his minutes in blowouts which isn’t ideal, however he also plays his studs way less minutes against lesser opposition so Bobby could come in and get his damage done early. He’s so hot right now and gets an awesome matchup against the Cavs. It may not seem the greatest matchup but the Cavs allow the most put-backs to bigs in the league so there could be some easy stats for him. He’s had 30+ PRA in 2 straight games averaging just 19.5 minutes which is ludicrous but I think he can push into the low-mid 20s today. Still a little hard to trust to take the base-line but some serious value in the alts again.”

No good yesterday but more than happy to go again here and we are getting better odds. He’s been a usage beast and that continued yesterday with a team 2nd 22.6% rate. Giannis actually seen his minutes increase on b2b’s, but they came against strong opposition which I mentioned above Bud has been extending him in, so I’d expect a lesser workload here, especially if Bucks can pick up where they left off yesterday and get off to a good start. Feel pretty good about the minutes here so happy to add the base.

• Bobby Portis over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Bobby Portis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Bobby Portis over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Rockets 12:10pm AEST

Just came through for us last game but should’ve been a more comfortable cover as I missed a quote from Pop saying they wanted to get him some more paint touches. His per 36 line of 10.2/11.0/3.0 indicated there was more of an edge on the rebounding line, but after hearing Pop say that I’m happy to include the points today. He was awesome against the Wolves with 19/8/1 and 4 blocks so although Gay comes back into the line-up today who will play some backup 5 and may limit the upside on his minutes, he should still see around the 30 mark. It might be tough for Spurs to go small with Boogie on the other end so we may just see Pop match Jakob and Boogie who played 32,29,33 the last 3 games Wood missed. Dejounte is questionable here and this play becomes stronger if he’s out as it’ll be Derrick white running more point who loves finding Jakob. Last season with White on the floor, he averaged 16.5/9.4/4.7 per 36, which dropped dramatically to 9.6/11.1/3.2 with him off. Saw some nice chemistry between White and Jakob against the Wolves, with White assisting on 3 of his made buckets (Dejounte, Demar, Lyles, Keldon 1 each).

• Jakob Poeltl over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Warriors vs Mavs 12:40pm AEST

“Everything here is pointing toward extended minutes for Dray in this one. His workload has been very much managed this season averaging just 27.2 minutes including just 6 games of 30+ minutes. He played a season high 36 minutes 2 games ago and should be getting at least that today on national TV with Paschall potentially missing this one too. His per 36 numbers are great up at 8.8 dimes and although he didn’t rack them up yesterday he still covered this base against the leagues 3rd best defence over the last 2 weeks and had 16 potentials. That is right around his season average of 15.6 potentials per 36 minutes which should be more than enough to cover this line in a good matchup against the leagues second worst defence over the last 2 weeks (23rd on season). Definitely some upside here when you’ve got someone like Steph on the team. His touch time came way up as well to 4.1 last game which is well above his season average of 2.7.”

Write up from last game. The price action has been a little weird as when markets opened the line was 7.5 but then some bookies were offering 6.5 at 1.75ish again last night which would have been ideal but now the lines are back to 7.5 so the bet is probably better off being the RA line at 14.5 which hasn’t moved. I was a little hesitant to take the rebound line as the rebounding numbers for him haven’t been strong this season, at just 6.7 per 36, but that does get a bump up to 8.2 per 36 when he’s not playing with a centre. Kicking myself for not taking the assist alt lines last game as that was the plan before switching to the double/double and triple/double late. Role was great as expected with the Warriors pushing the pace at every opportunity against this awful Mavs defence which resulted in 15 dimes. Got a little lucky as he had just 20 potentials but he did only play 3Q, and I would expect this one to be closer to push him into the mid 30s. Still a stack of upside with the dimes, not as much with the boards.

• Draymond Green over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Draymond Green Double Double @ 3.80 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green Triple Double @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Getting a surprisingly nice price for Luka here. He’s a triple double threat every night and it’s a really nice matchup for him on paper. Warriors are not a good rebounding team with the 28th ranked rebounding %. They play at such a fast pace (even faster now with Dray at the 5) that it creates a ton of extra opportunities. There weren’t many boards to go around last game as Warriors were so hot but we can’t expect that to happen again here. On the flip side, Mavs were ice cold and Luka was unlucky with just 6 dimes from his 17 potentials.

• Luka Doncic Triple Double @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

With Paschall ruled out here, Warriors are once again going to be super thin in the front-court. It resulted in Juan playing 40 minutes last game (including garbage time, which as always is a huge bonus), finishing with 14/8/5. I quite like him, and Kerr does too as he raves about him every chance he gets. In this Warriors system of ball movement it creates a ton of potentials and as a guy that always makes the right play without forcing shots, he’s a sneaky dime guy. He had a team 3rd 8 potentials last game, which is actually a fair bit below his season average of 10.0 per 40. He has a really nice 12.6/7.5/4.4 per 40 line which should have him covering this in a very plus matchup. I was just going to take the assists, but if he gets his 3 dimes he should be covering this RA too, and we are getting some great value on combining them.

• Juan Toscano-Anderson over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists / Over 2.5 Assists @ 3.30 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 6.7 units out

• Elfrid Payton over 14.5 Points / Immanuel Quickley under 15.5 Points @ 8.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.2 units
• Elfird Payton over 19.5 Points / Immanuel Quickley under 15.5 Points @ 51.00 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units
• Thaddeous Young over 7.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Thaddeous Young over 9.5 Assists @ 26.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Thaddeous Young Triple-Double @ 46.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bobby Portis over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Bobby Portis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Bobby Portis over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Draymond Green over 14.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Draymond Green Double Double @ 3.80 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green Triple Double @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Luka Doncic Triple Double @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Juan Toscano-Anderson over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists / Over 2.5 Assists @ 3.30 with B365 – 1 unit
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