Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 7/10

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 18: Duncan Robinson #55 of the Miami Heat reacts against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center on December 18, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

Season Results:

• 389 Wins / 264 Losses
• +113.53 Units Of Profit
• 16.48% ROI

Lakers vs Heat 12:00am AEST

Had a big miss on him in G5 in the Heat vs Bucks series, but feel pretty good about Duncan today. Bam coming back into the line-up helps him in a couple of ways. Miami love running the DHO with Bam/Duncan. Bam has assisted on 20 Robinson FGs in the playoffs, next highest is Jimmy at 14 then Dragic at 9. Similar story in the regular season with 96 FGs from Bam assists & a big drop off to 57 from Jimmy. He manages to get up a few more 3 pointers with Bam out there at 10.2 per 36, compared to 9.5 without him. Bam also might help him stay on the floor as he can help cover up a few of Duncan’s defensive short-comings, although he was far better on that end in G3. Although his G3 numbers (13-5-3) don’t jump out at you, he creates so much space on the court and it really benefited Jimmy as he was able to take guys 1-on-1 without seeing much help (also credit Spo for having 4 shooters around Jimmy for the majority of the game). Lakers obviously have a massive rebounding edge in the series so it’s clear all 5 guys who are on the court for Miami need to work hard on the glass. Lakers have done well limiting his space and he’s gotten much better at passing out of those situations to set up team-mates, so taking the PRA line. Earlier in the series he looked very rushed on a lot of his attempts, and it seems like every post game all the Miami guys talk about how important it is for Duncan to get up them up so there is definite potential for an explosion if you want to fire up some alt 3 lines, but the prices have come way down.

• Robinson over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit

Caruso saw a series high 26 minutes in G3 (23,21) and has a couple of paths to more minutes with both KCP and Danny not playing particularly well (Danny is a little banged up). He isn’t a high usage guy but gets some great looks playing next to Lebron and AD. Always running when they have fast break opportunities. Covered his 10.5 PRA line in 3 of his last 4 (10 in other). 

Would love to take Jimmy dimes today as he’s posting some off the charts advanced stats – 26 potential assists, 24 drives, 11.7 minutes touch time – but before Bam went down they were running so much through him and with Jimmy’s line coming up a bit there isn’t much margin for error. Still an OK play. 

Staking Plan

• Robinson over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
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