Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 6/8

Nice bounce back with a profitable day. Could have had a big collect picking Portland correctly, but Nurk wasn’t right on the offensive end in this one and just crawled over.

Season Results:

• 278 Wins / 178 Losses
• +92.28 Units Of Profit
• 19.87% ROI

Grizzlies vs Jazz 4:30am AEST

Really looking like the break has done him well. Bounced back strongly after everyone had down games against OKC with a strong 24/2/8 line against the rock-solid Lakers defence. Love how aggressive he has been and is sure to get some open looks from deep with Jazz’s unselfish ball movement. Gets a good matchup here against Ja. Guards have had success against the Grizzlies in the bubble with both CJ (34) & Dame (29) going off against them and Dejounte (21) & White (16) having nice games too. Through the 3 games he has taken advantage of his 31 minutes without Mitchell, getting a nice 9.4% USG increase up to 33.4.

• Mike Conley over 17.5 Points @ 1.93 – 1 unit
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Grizzlies vs Jazz 4:30am AEST

This starting group has been playing well (+29.7 net rating in 41 minutes) and with Snyder’s tight rotations, all seem to be in line for mid 30 minutes again. In their opener, he played 32 minutes and grabbed 9 boards with 3 dimes and last game against the Lakers had 13 boards and 5 dimes. The game in between was the blowout loss against OKC where he got in early foul trouble and only played 19 minutes, but still managed 5 boards and 2 dimes. This all translated to a nice per 36 line of 11.1/4.1 in the bubble. Good matchup for Utah here against the Grizz who have been 7^th in pace inside the bubble. The loss of JJJ for them is significant and I do expect Utah to come away with the win here so there should be some extra peripherals to go around. I must admit they have played better than I expected.

• Royce O Neal over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 2.00 – 1 unit
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Grizzlies vs Jazz 4:30am AEST

I may look silly here but he has to start hitting some of these shots doesn’t he? They need to get him going. He still has a team high 29.9% usage through the 3 games but is an absolutely brutal 6-30 from the field and 3-14 from 3 in his last 2 games. Minutes unsurprisingly got cut last game only playing 20 but I assume his 6^th man spot is safe, even though he has a -50.4 net rating through the 3 games. If he comes in and gets himself going early could go big and bring this bet into play.

• Jordan Clarkson Top Pointscorer @ 14.00 – 0.1 unit

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Nuggets vs Spurs 6:00am AEST

Ready to have a bet on him. He was a spectator of the Derrick White show due to fouls in their opener but has had 2 high usage game since then, sitting at 25% in the bubble. Went off in a good matchup against Memphis with 21/10 and then a poor shooting night vs Philly but still managed 13/6. He’s averaged a nice 0.78 PR per minute over his last 3, but that comes on just 40.9 shooting so there is clearly more upside there. Shai and CP3 both had their way with Denver yesterday with 24&23 points respectively.

• Dejounte over 19.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.90 – 1 unit

Lakers vs OKC 6:00am AEST

Davis should feast here. He is coming off a monster 42 points game and gets a matchup he has enjoyed in the past. They have met OKC twice this season and Donovan has put Adams on Davis with little success. He broke out of a slump against them with 34 then a few days later backed it up with 33. I was a little hesitant on the front end of a b2b but Vogel said earlier him and Lebron will see their usual minutes. OKC really missed Dennis against Denver and although Lakers are playing far below their best, they should be too strong here behind a big game from AD.

• AD over 26.5 Points @ 1.92 – 1 unit
• AD over 29.5 Points / Lakers win @ 3.75 – 0.25 units

Raptors vs Magic 10:00am AEST

Freddy has been great to kick things off in the bubble. He’s played 40+ minutes both games, with a solid 13/11 in the first before erupting against the heat with a career night finishing with 36/4. Line is still pretty low here for him in a good matchup against the Magic who have the 7th worst defence in the bubble (tied with Washington). Banking on Nurse keeping his tight rotations here and there’s been nothing to suggest he won’t as his guys have only played the 2 games.

• VanVleet over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 – 1 unit

Raptors vs Magic 10:00am AEST

This is an interesting one. I think we will be seeing a bunch of him here. Vucevic has had Ibaka’s number in the past, and was quite vocal saying how much he enjoyed the matchup with him as an undersized 5. Nurse has the perfect guy to cover him so I’d be surprised if we didn’t see them pretty much match minutes here. He’s been fine through 2 games, averaging 7.5/6.5 in 23 minutes. Nurse has commented on how much better shape has come back so the bump up in minutes shouldn’t be a problem for him. Doesn’t have to do much to cover this low line.

• Gasol over 12.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 – 1 unit

Celtics vs Nets  11:00am AEST

As good a spot he will get for the remainder of the season I would imagine. He absolutely feasted in February with a per 36 line of 31/8/3 in 343 minutes. In 981 minutes without Kemba on the floor this season, he has had a 33.2% usage. Not sure who will guard him here but it shouldn’t matter as this Nets defence is poor, especially on the interior so expect him to get some really easy looks around the rim. After stinking it up in their opener he’s turned in a pair of good games with 34 & 23 points, shooting over 50% in both.

• Tatum over 24.5 Points @ 1.87 – 1.5 units
• Tatum over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 – 0.25 units

Celtics vs Nets  11:00am AEST

It is very hard to fade him here after getting the game off yesterday. Played 39 minutes against the (poor) Wizards scoring 34 points on 25 shots. We were on him then and I mentioned how obvious it is he’s the only player on the team who can consistently create his own shot and that has translated into him having the 4th highest usage rate in the bubble at 34.2%. Celtics can throw a few different guys at him but their overall defence has been shocking in the bubble owning the 2nd worst rating at 117.9. It’s hard to forget the last time they met when he dropped 51 on them. With such high usage and playing so many minutes there is always a chance he goes off, especially if his 3 is falling early so happy to get some exposure to his alts.

• Levert over 23.5 Points @ 1.87 – 1 unit
• Levert over 29.5 Points @ 4.00 – 0.2 units
• Levert over 34.5 Points @ 10.00 – 0.1 units

Staking Plan

• Mike Conley over 17.5 Points @ 1.93 – 1 unit
• Royce O Neal over 9.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 2.00 – 1 unit
• Jordan Clarkson Top Pointscorer @ 14.00 – 0.1 unit
• Dejounte over 19.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.90 – 1 unit
• AD over 26.5 Points @ 1.92 – 1 unit
• AD over 29.5 Points / Lakers win @ 3.75 – 0.25 units
• VanVleet over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 – 1 unit
• Gasol over 12.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 – 1 unit
• Tatum over 24.5 Points @ 1.87 – 1.5 units
• Tatum over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 – 0.25 units
• Levert over 23.5 Points @ 1.87 – 1 unit
• Levert over 29.5 Points @ 4.00 – 0.2 units
• Levert over 34.5 Points @ 10.00 – 0.1 units
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