Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 5/8

Tough day. Still not sure how Shai didn’t get his dimes, CP3 missed a likely game winning free throw which in turn would’ve cashed the double and Davis missed a regulation Alley off Lebron. A few at some big odds today I don’t mind the look of.

Season Results:

• 275 Wins / 177 Losses
• +91.06 Units Of Profit
• 21.01% ROI

Mavs vs Kings 4:30am AEST

This game is set to create some big opportunities across the board as Mavs are 3^rd and Kings 4^th in pace through 2 bubble games with both teams having over 120 defensive ratings (only 4 in the bubble) It’s hard to trust any of the Kings (other than Fox, who I do quite like, but line might be a touch high) as Walton hinted at a potential line-up change. Holmes I like but with Giles playing well last game and Len potentially make in the mix I’m a bit hesitant. Settled on Buddy. Been pretty poor through 2 games but has had a massive 33.0% usage in his 40 minutes. If (big if) he can get himself going early could crush it here. Kings are still in touch, only 1 game back from 9^th so will be really trying to get their first win on the board here against the Mavs who have several question marks and will now likely be without Seth. It looks almost certain Mavs will finish 7^th, so I wonder if Carlisle may limit KP & Doncic who are averaging 37 & 40 mins.

• Hield over 19.5 Points @ 3.8 – 0.3 units
• Hield over 24.5 Points / Kings win @ 10.00 – 0.1 unit
• Hield over 29.5 Points / Kings win @ 31.00 – 0.1 unit

** I have made an error here on the original post, should be 19.5/Kings win @ 10.00 & 24.5/Kings win @ 31.00

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Magic vs Pacers 8:00am AEST

Yes please. Through 2 bubble games Vooch has a ridiculous 32.1/13.5/5 per 36 line. Admittedly some favourable matchups, but the line is low enough to allow for some regression. Gets a decent matchup here too catching the Pacers on the second night of a back to back. Embiid had 41/21 in their first game and today Bryant had 20/11 in just 28 minutes. I’m not sure why the rested Magic, who are as hot as anyone right now are dogs here so need to get some exposure to that. Obviously no travel here but Pacers are just 3-5 with a -7.5 net rating this season on 0 days rest so could be vulnerable.

• Vucevic over 20.5 Points @ 1.92 – 1.5 units
• Vucevic over 24.5 Points / Magic win @ 6.00 – 0.25 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport

Rockets vs Portland 11:00am AEST

The Bosnian Beast has been fantastic since returning. He fouled out of his opening game after 33 minutes against the Grizzlies with a nice 18/9/5 line, before erupting against the Celtics with 30/9/5 in 32 minutes. He leads Portland in usage through 2 games at 28.0% and you have to assume he’s going to be busy again here. He gets the interesting matchup against the Rockets and their small ball line-up. We saw Milwaukee have really good success posting up Lopez yesterday and he ended with 23/12, while KP absolutely torched them in the opener with 39/16. He’s been posted up 12 times in the bubble and has an elite 1.25 points per possession on those (Embiid leads the league – minimum 50 possessions – this season at 1.11) so he is clearly capable of taking advantage of the matchup. If he stays out of foul trouble, he will have a massive night. Portland look a much better team with him and Houston literally have no answer for the big man if he does get going, so worth a bet on them winning too.

• Nurkic over 17.5 Points @ 1.90 – 1.5 units
• Nurkic over 24.5 Points / Blazers win @ 8.00 – 0.1 units
• Nurkic over 29.5 Points / Blazers win @ 14.00 – 0.1 units

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Rockets vs Portland 10:00am AEST

Like this a lot. Stotts has said he is more than happy to play Dame 40 minutes in these games as they are fighting for a playoff spot. Last game against the Celtics he did just that, playing 44 minutes and went the whole way in the second half. Fully expect the same thing here if it’s close. He had a massive 16 dimes there and even more important came off a big 23 potentials. Gets a great pace up matchup here and should be able to pick apart the bad Rockets defence which is ranked 17th in the bubble. Big outlay on this Portland side of this matchup so going to need them to stay in it a long way.

• Lillard over 8.5 Assists @ 1.95 – 1.5 units
• Lillard over 11.5 Assists @ 5.50 – 0.2 units

Staking Plan

• Hield over 19.5 Points @ 3.8 – 0.3 units
• Hield over 19.5 Points / Kings win @ 10.00 – 0.1 unit
• Hield over 24.5 Points / Kings win @ 31.00 – 0.1 unit
• Vucevic over 20.5 Points @ 1.92 – 1.5 units
• Vucevic over 24.5 Points / Magic win @ 6.00 – 0.25 units
• Nurkic over 17.5 Points @ 1.90 – 1.5 units
• Nurkic over 24.5 Points / Blazers win @ 8.00 – 0.1 units
• Nurkic over 29.5 Points / Blazers win @ 14.00 – 0.1 units
• Lillard over 8.5 Assists @ 1.95 – 1.5 units
• Lillard over 11.5 Assists @ 5.50 – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport