Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 6/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 8.08 Units Loss
• -10.25% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Kings vs Wolves 9:10am AEST

For those that remember a while ago when we were betting Towns dimes lines, I mentioned how I thought Finch was going to run a tight rotation like Nurse however it seemed like at the time he didn’t want to disrupt things too much straight away. Fast forward and he had 3 guys play 40+ minutes in regulation time last game against the 76ers on the second leg of a b2b. Big minutes are obviously just so good for production and while we can’t expect 44 minutes for KAT again, Finch said he talked to his guys about bumping up his minutes so I like him to play close to 40 here. He’s been much better on the glass recently covering this line in 5 of his last 6 bringing down 16.0 boards per 40 minutes. He gets the gun matchup against the Kings here as he’s going to just be able to sit in the paint all game. Kings give up the 2nd most rebounds to centres on the season.

• Karl Anthony Towns over 12.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Thunder vs Pistons 9:10am AEST

There’s going to be a few weird lines in this game but it’s so tough to back any of these Thunder guys with any confidence as the rotations and role seemingly change every game. They’ve now brought in Hoard and Robinson and said they will likely be in the rotation straight away which doesn’t make things any easier. I’ve been fairly impressed with Poku and he’s starting to look a lot more comfortable (still going to be a brutal at times) but he should be set for huge minutes today with his positional flexibility. He had back to back 20 point games before failing on the second leg of a b2b on the road, so back at home rested today will see if he can pick it back up. There’s just so much usage available on this team.

• Aleksej Pokusevski over 19.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Raptors vs Wizards 9:10am AEST

He couldn’t have asked for a better way to try build off that awesome performance against the Warriors where he went off for 36 points in 31 minutes. He took 24 FGA which is a season high and now gets the Wizards here and a date with either Bertans or Avdija, both of whom have been disasters defensively this season. There isn’t much of a sample size without the Raptors guys missing today, and it’s a bit cloudy with all the changing rotation pieces but he’s put up 33/5/6 in 33 minutes on 32.9% usage. Expecting another 30%+ usage game from him today and against such a bad defence should be set for a big game. He’s going to play some PG, which Nurse has really trusted him with over the years so there’s some assists upside here.

• Pascal Siakam over 24.5 Points @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Pascal Siakam over over 34.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Pascal Siakam over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 2.5 units out

• Karl Anthony Towns over 12.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Aleksej Pokusevski over 19.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Pascal Siakam over 24.5 Points @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Pascal Siakam over over 34.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Pascal Siakam over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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