Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 4/9

Season Results:

• 343 Wins / 223 Losses
• +110.07 Units Of Profit
• 18.58% ROI

Raptors vs Celtics 8:30am AEST

Really like this. His minutes were right up in G2 playing 38 and turned in a big 20-point game. He doesn’t have a major role in the offence but has been playing it perfectly. Majority of the time he’s standing in the corner where he’s a threat for a 3 pointer (has had 9 open or wide-open attempts through 2 games), but it’s the timing of his back door cuts when the Boston guys are over helping which has allowed him to get some easy looks around the rim. Celtics aren’t a good rebounding team and he’s managed to grab 7 in both games so with big minutes likely heading his way again should get plenty of chances. He has upside with his 3 pointers as he just shown, and the price is great. Powell hasn’t been good which has helped OG’s minutes, but he’s always a chance of going off which may cut into OG’s time so having a little saver.

• OG over 16.5 PRA @ 1.85 with TAB – 0.7 units
• OG over 1.5 3’s @ 2.75 with B365 – 0.7 units
• OG over 2.5 3’s @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• OG over 3.5 3’s @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Powell over 14.5 points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

A bit more of a volume play here, as Jaylen has taken 17 3 pointers through the 2 games. Interestingly, he’s only knocked down 2 of his 10 open or wide-open attempts but made 4 of his 7 with a defender tight. In the 4 games vs Philly he hit 9 of his 21 open or wide-open attempts so I’d expect them to come back here, and as we are aware Raptors allow a bunch of corner 3’s and he’s had 7 attempts from the corner through the 2 games so should be getting a few good looks.

• Brown over 2.5 3’s @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Obviously not getting great odds here but still looks a solid bet. Nurse has finally unleashed him getting up to 43 minutes in G2 and with their season likely on the line, expect more of the same here. They need him to be aggressive and while he hasn’t been able to get his shot going, it’s crucial he keeps attacking if not for himself then to create for others. He had 6 assists in G2 and created 12 potentials which is more than enough to cover the low line. Also had 5 minutes of touch time. He flashed some massive upside at the back end of round 1 where he had 5 and 10 in the final 2 games. Feel free to multi the low odds with Clippers ML.

*The more I’ve thought about this I can’t get out of my mind the game against Nets when Nurse used him as a straight PG and he racked up 10 assists. It’s obviously not a guarantee but down 2-0 it’s very possible and there is a clear path to him absolutely smashing this line so am going to roll the dice. 

• Siakam over 2.5 Assists @ 1.64 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Siakam over 5.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam over 3.5 Assists @ 2.25 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Siakam over 4.5 Assists @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam over 5.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam over 6.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam triple double @ 276.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units 

Shooting the ball so confidently and has really picked up the volume in this series. Have had my eye on this as he has been hot since the playoffs begun, but he was shooting a ridiculous percentage going 8-14 in round 1. He has taken 12 attempts in this series, with 9 of them being wide open and another 1 open. It’s easy offence for the Raptors and something they can get often so expect them to keep going to it. Has to cool off at some point but until the volume drops off again am happy to back it.

• Ibaka over 1.5 3’s @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit

Clippers vs Nuggets 8:30am AEST

Clippers got tested against a really good Mavs team and are going to relish the easier opposition here. Nuggets are coming off a tough 7 game series where they did everything other than impress. Jamal was great, but it came from extremely hot shooting and Clippers have so many different bodies they can throw at him to slow him down if he gets going. Zubac has been great and is a legitimate defensive presence who should be able to hold his own against Jokic. After such an emotional series this might be a bit of a letdown spot against a fully rested Clippers team who can kill the

• Clippers -9.5 @ 1.95 with Beteasy – 1.5 units

Rivers continues to praise Zubac and deservedly so. He’s been great for this Clippers team and has outplayed Harrell thus far in the playoffs so should be a lock for minutes after reaching a season high 33 in the close-out game vs Mavs. He has good numbers against Jokic with a per-36 line of 18/16/2 over a 61 minute sample.

• Zubac over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• OG over 16.5 PRA @ 1.85 with TAB – 0.7 units
• OG over 1.5 3’s @ 2.75 with B365 – 0.7 units
• OG over 2.5 3’s @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• OG over 3.5 3’s @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Powell over 14.5 points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Brown over 2.5 3’s @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Siakam over 2.5 Assists @ 1.64 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Siakam over 5.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ibaka over 1.5 3’s @ 2.05 with TAB – 1 unit
• Siakam over 3.5 Assists @ 2.25 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Siakam over 4.5 Assists @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam over 5.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam over 6.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Siakam triple double @ 276.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units 
• Clippers -9.5 @ 1.95 with Beteasy – 1.5 units
• Zubac over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
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