Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 30/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 2.95 Units Loss
• -6.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Celtics vs Pelicans 10:40am AEST

Pretty surprised we’re seeing these prices again here. It was a tailor made matchup for him against the Bucks where he managed to get up 10 3’s in both of the games, and gets another awesome matchup here against the Pels who allow the 3rd most 3 pointers in the league. No Jaylen means we’re likely going to see some extra offensive load for Smart today.

• Marcus Smart over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.75 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Smart over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Marcus Smart over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Nets vs Wolves 10:40am AEST

This is a huge number, but this is an absolutely terrible defence coming up a potentially all time great offence. The Rockets put 129 on this Wolves team 2 days ago and the Rockets currently have the 28th best offence on the season which does not bode well for the Wolves. Okogie is probably their only plus defender on the roster currently, but he’s out again today and they just don’t have any bodies that are going to be able to slow down Harden and Kyrie. Also expecting a pass first Harden today and he’s had 15+ dimes in 3 of his last 6 so we’re getting a nice price here although this game could be done by the end of the third so just having a little on.

• Brooklyn Nets over 124.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Brooklyn Nets over 136.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• James Harden over 14.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Thunder vs Mavs 11:10am AEST

He was awesome against the Celtics last game with probably his best game of the season with 22/8/4 and gets a great chance to keep it rolling at home today against the Mavs and their 26th ranked defence. This number falls just above his per 36 averages for the season of 20.3 PRA, but a ton of that has come with Shai, Dort, Horford, Hill and Diallo in the line-up so he should get statistical increases across the board. I mentioned a few days ago how good the role for Dort was going to be moving forward, so obviously without him today all of that has to go somewhere and Theo is primed to take control of the team. Daigneault said he wants him to be more aggressive moving forward and without many other options on this team he’s going to have to be. Dort played 16 minutes last game, but the numbers for Theo were still so strong with 6.0 minutes of touch time (averages 3.1 for the season), 82 touches (averages 54.5 for the season), 15 drives! (averages 7.0 for the season) and a 24.1% usage rate (up from 16.2%). Can get it done in all categories and getting up to 37 minutes in the blowout loss against the Celtics bodes well for his playing time.

• Theo Maledon over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Theo Maledon over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Spurs vs Kings 11:40am AEST

Has had an interesting stretch over his last 8 games. Crushed against Detroit with 14, crushed against Bulls with 20 then got into a ton of foul trouble playing less than 10 first half mins against the Cavs finishing with 8, then had 4 straight tough matchups against the Bucks, Hornets and Clippers x2 before going off against last game against the Bulls with 20. Gets an awesome spot here against the Kings who comfortably give up the most PITP on the season which is where Jakob does his damage with a crazy 88.5% of his points coming from the paint. Like this line at 9.5 (much prefer than 10.5 at plus money) as it’s just 5 buckets for the big man. Kings also give up a staggering 1.28 PPP against the roll man which is the worst in the league.

• Jakob Poeltl over 9.5 Points @ 1.75 with TAB – 1 unit

Jazz vs Cavs 12:10pm AEST

Jeez this is going to be ugly. There is a 16 point spread here and it is just so hard to imagine any path to how the Cavs keep this one close, especially if Nance is likely going to miss as well. The Cavs front-court is in shambles with Allen and now maybe Nance out but they have a ton of back-court depth so I’m pretty confident he’d sit when it blows out. The Jazz have the #1 ranked home defence on the season and a crazy 13.1 net rating which comfortably leads the league (Bucks 2nd 8.7). Utah give up the 8th fewest points to PGs and the 5th fewest FG% as well as giving up the 2nd fewest assists per game. Happy to ride the under and just hope he doesn’t get any garbage time burn.

• Darius Garland UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.4 units out

• Marcus Smart over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.75 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Smart over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Marcus Smart over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Brooklyn Nets over 124.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Brooklyn Nets over 136.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• James Harden over 14.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 unit
• Theo Maledon over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Theo Maledon over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 9.5 Points @ 1.75 with TAB – 1 unit
• Darius Garland UNDER 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
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