Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 30/12

Season Results:

• 16 Wins / 37 Losses
• 0.56 Units Profit
• +1.75% ROI

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Warriors vs Pistons 11:00am AEST

We’re getting another really strong price here. He hasn’t put a massive tally on the board yet, but he’s had 6 & 4 through his 2 games. Similarly, to Randle above, he’s been unlucky with his dimes, as he is ranked 10^th in the league with 14.5 potentials per game. Last season, he averaged 5.6 dimes on 10.6 potentials (52.8%) so if we use that as a guideline there’s still plenty of upside left here. He’s coming into this one fresh with the rest of the squad (minus Griffin) on the b2b so he may get asked to do a bit extra. He played all 4 pre-season games, averaging 5.3 dimes in just 21.4 minutes. He should play somewhere between 26-30. Gets the nice matchup against the Warriors who have the 3^rd worst defence at this early point in the season.

• Derrick Rose over 4.5 Assists @ 2.25 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Derrick Rose over 5.5 Assists @ 3.25 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Derrick Rose over 6.5 Assists @ 5.25 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Derrick Rose over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Knicks vs Cavs 11:00am AEST

Crazy prices here. He’s always been a decent passer, but I love the way he’s being used this season. Through 3 games, Randle is averaging 6.3 dimes in 35.7 minutes. We know Thibs loves to lean on his starters so his role/minutes look very safe here. The dimes shouldn’t be much of a surprise and I’m a bit annoyed we haven’t cashed in on them yet as he was averaging 7.0 per 36 through his 4 pre-season games. He’s currently ranked 9^th in the league in potential assists at a massive 14.7 per game. So much upside here as when you have that many potentials, if your shooters get hot you can really stack them up quickly. Need some exposure to alts. Gets a great matchup against the Cavs. If Burks misses it’ll mean extra ball handling duties for him.

• Julius Randle over 3.5 Assists @ 1.72 with Topsport – 1.1 units
• Julius Randle over 4.5 Assists @ 2.35 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Julius Randle over 5.5 Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Julius Randle over 7.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Julius Randle over 9.5 Assists @ 46.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Pacers vs Celtics 11:10am AEST

Had an ‘off’ game but still managed to put together 19 points and 5 dimes, covering this line. It is still simply too low for him, especially if he’s going to be playing anywhere close to 40 minutes. He’s now averaging 24.3/11/7.0 on the season. Decided to take out his rebounds here as the line is getting a little high and we haven’t seen the upside from him yet this season.

• Domantas Sabonis over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

OKC vs Magic 12:10am AEST

Both Horford & Hill are missing this one, which should open some extra minutes for a few guys. I’ve singled out Diallo as an interesting target with a really low line. He’s looked decent in their two games so far, averaging 7.5/6.0/1.5 (almost enough to cover this line) in just 19 minutes of action. He’s had a team 4th 19.2% usage which shouldn’t come as a surprise after his 23.4% usage in the pre-season. He’s been getting some reps at PG and without Hill today it’s just him, Shai & Maledon at the guard spots so he should be busy. He’s capable of producing, posting a 15.6/9.8/2.9 per 36 line in the pre-season. Might get some garbage time burn if it blows out. 

• Hamidou Diallo over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units

Pelicans vs Suns 2:10pm AEST

I was close to betting him in G2 after a strong opening game (18/7) against Dallas where he led the team in minutes with 35. Turned out to be a good miss as his minutes dipped right down to 26. This team is pretty deep on the wings, so night to night variance in minutes may end up being the norm, but I think he gets mid 30s again here off the back of a 22/7 game in once again a team high 36 minutes. They will need him to guard Ingram. He had an 18.5% usage in the pre-season and 15.4% through the 3 Suns games, a nice rise from the 12.5% last season. He’s been doing his damage from behind the arc, getting up 20 attempts through the 3 games and all 20 of them have either been open or wide open. Playing with Chris Paul & Devin Booker you can expect the good looks will continue. The 3 point volume was there in the pre-season too, taking 7.8 attempts per 36. If you can’t get this price, more than happy taking the 16.5 Points + Rebounds

• Mikal Bridges over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.05 with B365 – 1.4 units

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Staking Plan – 7.1 units out.

• Derrick Rose over 4.5 Assists @ 2.25 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Derrick Rose over 5.5 Assists @ 3.25 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Derrick Rose over 6.5 Assists @ 5.25 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Derrick Rose over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Julius Randle over 3.5 Assists @ 1.72 with Topsport – 1.1 units
• Julius Randle over 4.5 Assists @ 2.35 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Julius Randle over 5.5 Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Julius Randle over 7.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Julius Randle over 9.5 Assists @ 46.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Domantas Sabonis over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Hamidou Diallo over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Mikal Bridges over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.05 with B365 – 1.4 units
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