Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/8

I was happy with all of my reads other than Philly in the last tip sheet. I won’t be betting on them any time soon. Clarkson 11 pts 4/17, almost a fill up with Shai if not for blow-out & Kawhi crushed as expected but missed a couple easy ones and fell 4 short sitting the whole 4th qtr.

Season Results:

• 266 Wins / 170 Losses (436 Bets)
• +88.71 Units Of Profit
• 20.17% ROI

Wizards vs Nets 4:00am AEST

Close to playing him vs Magic but happy I faded. Saw more than enough from him to launch at him here in the perfect matchup against the Wizards who played at the leagues fastest pace in their opening game. We knew he was going to be busy and he was with a monster 35.9% usage and there is no reason to expect anything different in this one as it’s obvious he’s the only guy on the roster who can create his own shot consistently. If he can get his outside shot going, he could go for 40. Two man game with Allen looked really nice vs Magic & he should rack up some easy dimes.

• Levert over 32.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 – 1.2 units
• Levert over 29.5 Points @ 2.85 – 0.2 units
• Levert over 34.5 Points @ 5.5 – 0.2 units
• Levert over 39.5 Points @ 11.00 0.1 units
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Wizards vs Nets 4:00am AEST

His opening game was interesting. Nets were really pushing the pace early on and he was a major beneficiary of that scoring 10 points in the first 7:30. After that when the pace slowed down and it was more half court action, he struggled and only added a further 4 points for the remainder of the game. I’m expecting this to be a very up & down game (total is set at 236) and think he’ll get a bunch of easy looks. He’s in line to play big minutes.

• Allen over 13.5 Points @ 1.88 – 1.25 units
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Wizards vs Nets 4:00am AEST

A bit annoyed at myself for not playing him in the opener as I was close to, but he played up to expectation and it is very clear he is the Wizards number one option. He finished that game with 21 points in just under 30 minutes due to some early foul trouble. His 28.2% usage is certainly replicable and leaves some room to the upside. Their team total is set at 117.5 and someone has to score them so this line for their #1 option is a great bet. Should see a bump in minutes and if this game stays close, I’d assume it’s due to him blasting through this line.

• Rui over 17.5 Points @ 1.83 – 1.25 units
• Rui over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 – 0.2 units
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Wizards vs Nets 4:00am AEST

Buttering up again. He let us down last time out, getting into early foul but I still liked what I saw when he had the ball in his hands. I mentioned his preseason per 36 line of 15.8/9.2/5.3 so it was a surprise to see him finish the game with just the 1 rebound and 1 dime which was what cost us the bet as he finished just 4 short. Again, big upside on him so get some exposure to his alts if you see them later.

• Troy Brown Jr over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 – 1 unit
• Troy Brown Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.5 – 0.1 unit
• Troy Brown Jr over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 – 0.1 unit

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Spurs vs Grizzlies 6:00am AEST

Wasn’t his most efficient night but still managed a nice 22/5/11 line thanks to a big second half but the key takeaway here for me was the 35:45 regulation minutes. With Tyus out it looks like they’re going to give him all the minutes he can handle. Love this matchup for him against a Spurs team who are dedicated to playing small and fast and we just saw Fox, who has a somewhat comparable game, torch them with 39/3/6. There’s some upside on his dimes too as his teammates were only able to hit 11 of a whopping 26 potentials.

• Ja over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.85 – 1 unit

Spurs vs Grizzlies 6:00am AEST

Getting a really nice price for this. After dropping last game, all of a sudden Portland are right on their heels so they’ll be eager to bounce back here against the ‘youth movement’ Spurs. Not reading much into the Spurs win in a fairly meaningless game but was very impressed with the Grizzlies in their loss. JJJ took an absurd 15 3’s in that game (made 6) and he’s clearly more comfortable shooting from out there than going inside.

• JJJ over 2.5 3’s / Grizzlies win @ 2.75 – 1 unit

Rockets vs Bucks 10:30am AEST

Perfect matchup for him here to bounce back from a sub par shooting performance where he went just 6-20 but still managed 18 points. Both of these teams will be pushing the pace so he should get some easy looks to get him going. Without Bledsoe we saw him handling the ball a bit more last game and he ended up with 8 dimes and that is definitely replicable as he created 13 potential assists.

• Middleton Over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 – 1.25 units

Suns vs Mavericks 11:00am AEST

It was a perfect setup for him against the Rockets but he looked amazing scoring 39 points on 26 shots with a monster 31.4 usage. He’s thriving playing at centre and today gets another good matchup against the Suns who have allowed top 10 points to centres. Will likely try pull Ayton away from the basket with some outside shots so if he can get going from out there early, could see another 30+ night. Mavs should take care of business comfortably.

• Porzingis Over 22.5 Points @ 1.80 – 1 unit
• Porzingis 25+ / Mavs Win @ 3.00 – 0.2 units
• Porzingis 30+ / Mavs Win @ 5.50 – 0.2 units

Staking Plan

• Levert over 32.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 – 1.2 units
• Levert over 29.5 Points @ 2.85 – 0.2 units
• Levert over 34.5 Points @ 5.5 – 0.2 units
• Levert over 39.5 Points @ 11.00 0.1 units
• Allen over 13.5 Points @ 1.88 – 1.25 units
• Rui over 17.5 Points @ 1.83 – 1.25 units
• Rui over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 – 0.2 units
• Troy Brown Jr over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 – 1 unit
• Troy Brown Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.5 – 0.1 unit
• Troy Brown Jr over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 – 0.1 unit
• Ja over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.85 – 1 unit
• JJJ over 2.5 3’s / Grizzlies win @ 2.75 – 1 unit
• Middleton Over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 – 1.25 units
• Porzingis Over 22.5 Points @ 1.80 – 1 unit
• Porzingis Over 24.5 Points / Mavs Win @ 3.00 – 0.2 units
• Porzingis Over 29.5 / Mavs Win @ 5.50 – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport