Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/6

Apr 19, 2021; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Washington Wizards center Daniel Gafford (21) dunks the ball against the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second quarter at Capital One Arena. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs 76ers

Have to go again here. Ended up getting all the way up to 26 minutes despite the early foul trouble but the most encouraging thing for me was the 10 minute stretch he played to open up the 3rd quarter. He looked bloody gassed, but if he’s not going to be limited to 7 minute stints then he’s a real good shot at playing 30+ minutes. He’s at 0.58 points per minute for the series, so 30 minutes would have him at 17.4 points. No Embiid here so fouls shouldn’t be an issue.

• Daniel Gafford over 10.5 Points @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Daniel Gafford over 14.5 Points @ 3.40 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Daniel Gafford over 19.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

A few things line up for Rui here. Going back to the regular season I often mentioned the correlation between Bertans health and Rui’s playing time, as Rui averaged 35.3 minutes per game when Bertans sat, up from 31. No Bertans here should absolutely clear the runway for Rui to play monster minutes once again. He played 21.6 second half minutes in the last game getting right up to 41 posting a gem of a line with 20/13/2. Brooks absolutely raved about him post game and made it very clear that he’s going to fill the Bertans role as their outlet / catch and shoot guy. A little worried the efficiency has to drop off soon, but getting a really nice price on his three’s and a crazy price on his double double here.

• Rui Hachimura over 20.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.86 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Rui Hachimura Double Double @ 14.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Rui Hachimura over 1.5 3’s @ 2.70 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Rui Hachimura over 2.5 3’s @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

This is just a tailor made matchup for Simmons with the poor defence and fast pace and he’s had a nice series so far averaging 13.8/10.3/8.8 in just 30.4 minutes. Blowouts and foul trouble have limited him, but those numbers look ridiculous at the per 40 rate with an 18.1/13.5/11.5 line. Now we take out the 30%+ usage from Embiid and there’s just going to be so much more offensive upside. During the season he didn’t really see a massive production boost without Embiid, but he’s capable of some huge games and the way this game sets up I really think he’s going to come out aggressive. Kinda expect Brooks to go to hack-a-Simmons again at some point so could get some cheap FTs. Wizards really just don’t have anybody to guard him.

• Ben Simmons over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Ben Simmons Triple Double @ 7.25 with B365 – 0.2 units

I just don’t see where the extended minutes come from for Howard to reach this line. I’ve got him playing between 18-20 and he hasn’t proven at all he can be productive in this series at 0.79 PRA per minute. 29 minutes at that rate still stays under this line and he is not going to get close to that today. During the regular season, Dwight with the starters had an awful -31 net rating. He only played 5.1 second half minutes last game without Embiid, which should probably be an indication that Doc doesn’t trust him. Mike Scott was the major beneficiary playing 12.9 second half minutes.

• Dwight Howard UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Dwight Howard UNDER 6.5 Points / UNDER 8.5 Rebounds @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Knicks vs Hawks

20 first half minutes for Rose in game 4 is the big takeaway. He really has been awesome this series, and I’m not too sure why his PA line has dropped a point here getting back home. He’s going to play 40 minutes and he’s going to get his shots up. Thibs made the call to take him off Trae defensively last game which should give him some extra energy on the offensive side. Hawks have done an amazing job limiting Randle and it’s hard to really see that changing, so am definitely expecting more offence to be running through Rose again here and he’s right up at 24.6 points per 40 for the series.

• Derrick Rose over 19.5 Points @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Jazz vs Grizzlies

He’s a deadset shot at playing 45 minutes in this one as he’ll likely play the entire second half again. They’ve been putting a little bit more pressure on him in the lane which has resulted in him being able to create some shots for team-mates, getting right up to 19 potentials last game finishing with 12 dimes.

• Ja Morant over 7.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Ja Morant over 11.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Back to back games with 29 minutes and he’s got up a wild 15 3 pointers across those two. He’s been getting quality looks as well with 9 of the 15 coming wide open and 3 of them open. Jenkins cut down to a 9 man rotation last game which is awesome news for Allen.

• Grayson Allen over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.97 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Grayson Allen over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 9.0 units out

• Daniel Gafford over 10.5 Points @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Daniel Gafford over 14.5 Points @ 3.40 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Daniel Gafford over 19.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Rui Hachimura over 20.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.86 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Rui Hachimura Double Double @ 14.00 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Rui Hachimura over 1.5 3’s @ 2.70 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Rui Hachimura over 2.5 3’s @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ben Simmons over 33.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Ben Simmons Triple Double @ 7.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Dwight Howard UNDER 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Dwight Howard UNDER 6.5 Points / UNDER 8.5 Rebounds @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Derrick Rose over 19.5 Points @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Ja Morant over 7.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Ja Morant over 11.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Grayson Allen over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.97 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Grayson Allen over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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