Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 2.95 Units Loss
• -6.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Rockets vs Celtics 10:40am AEST

Turns out we took the wrong bet last time out, but it certainly didn’t help that guys just couldn’t knock down shots as the game went on as he had 3 dimes in the first then just 2 more until the final play of the game where he got a cheap one. The Celtics defence has been abysmal of late with the 25th ranked defence over the last month so definitely not scared to take guys against them anymore. Had 13 potentials in the last game and a huge 6.5 minutes of touch time in just 31 minutes, and we’re getting 5.5 today at plus odds which is much nicer. Silas keeps saying how much he trusts KPJ to run the offence and that they need more reps to get better so although he might not have the 40 minute upside like we saw when DJ wasn’t there, he can push into the mid 30s and I would assume he gets the garbage time run too with no game tomorrow.

• Kevin Porter Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 7.5 Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Been very hard not to play him recently but the matchups have truly been awful. Have had this one circled praying TT would still be out so and we get that today so I’m expecting a big Time Lord game. He had the 2 games against the Bucks who allow the fewest points to centres and 6th fewest rebounds, then a game against OKC who allow the 7th fewest points to centres, then had the matchup with Pels and Adams who although struggle defensively, prioritise defending the paint and give up the 10th fewest paint points. Line has stayed reasonable and gets an awesome matchup here against the Rockets who allow the 6th most points and 3rd most rebounds to centres. He’s sitting at an awesome 0.89 PRA per minute so 28 minutes in a very favourable matchup should get him there. Got right up to 32 minutes last game against the Pels.

• Robert Williams over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit

Covered this in 7 straight and the volume has really picked up so don’t need to lean has heavily on efficiency as he’s getting up 11.2 3’s (making 4.7) over that 7 game stretch. Can’t work out why we’re getting such a good price here. Rockets have given up the 9th most 3 pointers since the ASB. Fair bit of exposure to a game with a 12 points spread, but would say if it blows out Jaylen will have a big hand in it so could cash this early and think KPJ plays garbage time. Also think Rockets can hang around with how bad the Celtics D has been.

• Jaylen Brown over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.00 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Wolves vs Grizzlies 11:10am AEST

Missed the 9.5 last night, so pivoting to his 3’s here and we are getting awesome prices with Toppy. He’s been so much fun to watch and is trending up quickly with 33+ minutes in his last 4 games and 35+ in his last 3. Shooting the ball with so much confidence with 7 triples over his last 2 games but it was the 9 attempts last game which stood out. KAT is just awesome and commands so much attention and his playmaking has really come along this season looking for the open guy out of the double team. Beasley is a proven knock-down shooter, so his guy usually stays attached to him so when the scramble starts it’s Jaden who finds himself open and had 7! wide open 3’s last game with the other 2 ‘just’ open. Gets a gun matchup here against the Grizzlies who have given up the 6th most 3 pointers per game since the ASB.

• Jaden McDaniels over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.71 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Jaden McDaniels over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 12.05 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Jaden McDaniels over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 23.00 with Topsport – 0.1 units

Pelicans vs Hawks 12:10am AEST

It’s not often you get a team coming off OT with a slight rest advantage but here we are. Pels played an OT game at home yesterday, but the Hawks played double OT & then had to jump on a plane for a 3 hour flight to New Orleans. Absolutely hated the game environment yesterday so didn’t back NAW but was close. He was dominant with 31/8/3 and everything points to a repeat showing. He had a 33.3% usage, 5.8 minutes of touch time, 20 drives and had 8 potentials. Josh Hart had 3 minutes of touch time and grabbed a ridiculous 17 boards so there’s some extra touch time and some more rebounding chances to go to NAW here. With no Lonzo, Ingram or Zion he’s at 26.2/6.3/3.6 per 36 in a 131 minute sample. Hawks might be running a Bogdan/Lou back-court at times today which he should be able to crush.

• Nickeil Alexander Walker over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit

*Regardless of results today will be taking a day off tomorrow and potentially Monday also. Tough run continues and am in need of a little freshen up. Was going to take today off too but loved today’s slate. Very happy with it. Happy Easter, hope you all have a good weekend!

Staking Plan – 5.2 units out

• Kevin Porter Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 7.5 Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Robert Williams over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jaylen Brown over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.00 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Jaden McDaniels over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.71 with Topsport – 0.7 units
• Jaden McDaniels over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 12.05 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Jaden McDaniels over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 23.00 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• Nickeil Alexander Walker over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit
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