Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 29/4

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

76ers vs Hawks 9:10am AEST

More than happy to keep fading teams against the Philly defence. They really have been bringing it on a nightly basis and it’s so much fun to watch, and it’s just awesome having Matisse coming off the bench as it sets the tone for the second unit so there are just no cheap possessions for the opponents. The on/off splits for Trae are wild, as this offence is 11.2 PP100P worse with him off the court. The next highest mark on the team is Gallo at 3.9. They are without both Huerter and Bogdan today which is just going to make things awfully tough for them. Kris Dunn is a superb defender, but just doesn’t have an offensive game and they said they want to up his minutes today. Could get ugly for the Hawks who were held to just 86 by the Pistons..

• Atlanta Hawks UNDER 101.5 @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Atlanta Hawks UNDER 94.5 Points @ 3.78 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Lakers vs Wizards 9:40am AEST

Came through for us (albeit a bit lucky as the volume wasn’t there and he didn’t play any 4th quarter minutes) the other day, but his stock is trending down quickly after playing 33+ minutes in a couple straight, he’s gone 28,24 and as such a low usage guy he really needs minutes to be productive. Wizards are super healthy with Rui back so there’s a big minutes crunch everywhere. Think this one will either be sweat free or he’ll go way over by earning himself extra playing time. Awful matchup for him against this really strong Lakers D who does a great job of running guys off the 3 point line giving up the 7th fewest 3s at just 32 per game.

• Raul Neto UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.98 with Sportsbet – 0.6 units
• Raul Neto UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.77 with Topsport – 0.6 units

Heat vs Spurs 10:10am AEST

I was digging through Jimmy trying to find a bet for him as I think he’s going to finish off the season strong, but I just can’t quite work out why this number is so high and such a good price. He’s averaging 7.0 boards on the season, but a lot of that was bolstered by a strong Feb where he averaged 8.8 boards through 14 games. The number has dropped way down to 6.5 since the break and just 5.4 in April through 12 games. Only gone over this line twice in his last fifteen games.

• Jimmy Butler UNDER 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.95 with Topsport – 1.2 units

There’s been some money pouring in for the under here bringing his line down, but I’m happy to bite at this more than reasonable line. I was considering betting it at 20.5 so getting 18.5 now makes it really hard to pass up on. To me, he’s the clear beneficiary of Derrick missing time as Pop won’t need to go to the Demar at the 4 line-ups, and Keldon’s likely going to be the primary guy on Jimmy here so he should be set for mid 30s. He’s had stellar output on the season without Derrick, putting up 16.9/8.1/2.6 per 36 in a 912 minute sample. Matchup isn’t amazing but Miami give up a stack of 3s, so he should get some good looks from outside to compliment any drives. Had covered this in 3 straight and 6 0f the last 7 despite only getting over 29 minutes twice. He’s played 34,38 the last 2 and getting the added benefit of no Derrick today. His PRA line’s were routinely set at 24.5 earlier in the season while White was injured, so we have to take some of the 4.00 here.

• Keldon Johnson over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Blazers vs Grizzlies 11:10am AEST

Just needs to stay out of foul trouble and this line should seem a gift. He’s averaging 16.0 points since returning in just 21 minutes but he managed to get up to 24 minutes against the Blazers last week (dropped 23 on them). Didn’t really get his minute cap tested against the Nuggets as he was plagued by fouls, but it’s been a week since he got up to 24 minutes so have to think there’s a little bit more upside from that number in a huge game for both teams. Portland’s defence remains awful and this should just be an awesome game environment for everyone.

• Jaren Jackson Jr over 13.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Kings vs Jazz 12:10pm AEST

Huge spot for Ingles today. He’s been a bit cold but he’s too good to remain cold for long and he couldn’t get a better chance to bounce back than a game against the Kings without Conley and Donny. He’s going to handle the ball a TON, and should be headed for big minutes. Has awesome splits without his other two guards at 19/7 for the season. This is a bruuuutal matchup for the Kings who have the worst PNR defence in the league, coming up a team that just runs PNR all day, for the highest % in the league. Ingles and Rudy are going to give the Kings fits.

• Joe Ingles over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Joe Ingles over 9.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 7.6 units out

• Atlanta Hawks UNDER 101.5 Points @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Atlanta Hawks UNDER 94.5 Points @ 3.78 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Raul Neto UNDER 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.98 with Sportsbet – 0.6 units
• Raul Neto UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.77 with Topsport – 0.6 units
• Jimmy Butler UNDER 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.95 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 18.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Keldon Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jaren Jackson Jr over 13.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Joe Ingles over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Joe Ingles over 9.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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