Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 29/12

Season Results:

• 12 Wins / 33 Losses
• -1.42 Units
• -5.4% ROI

Hawks vs Pistons 11:40am AEST

There’s a lot to like here. He played every minute in the pre-season and the opener as a straight SG, which resulted in splitting time with Josh Jackson. Last game however Casey used him for 5 minutes with no PG next to him, and he came through with 19/6/4. Both Derrick Rose & Blake Griffin are out for this one, who are first and second on the Pistons in usage, so there’s going to be a lot of shots to go around. I’m expecting Delon to start at SG then move across as back-up PG while Hayes is off the court. He should have much safer minutes today and he has always been more productive as a PG. Was 13.4/7.3/8 per 36 in 411 minutes without a PG in Dallas last season. Gets a good matchup against the Hawks. Blowout a definite danger here, but he does have multi-category upside and there’s just so many shots to go around today it’s worth playing some alts.

• Delon Wright over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.00 with Topsport – 0.9 units
• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Delon Wright over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Grizzlies vs Nets 11:40am AEST

Got some nice value on him in the opener, but he didn’t pull through. Probably should’ve stuck with him after such a strong pre-season posting a 20.3/10.4/2.9 per 36 line but jumped off and was costly after in exploded against the Hawks with 20/14/1. Line is creeping up a bit here, but the 36 minutes was great to see, and he really looks like he’s full of confidence again. He’s getting good quality looks from deep with 4 wide open looks per game. Only has 3 dimes through his 2 games but has generated 14 potential assists so there’s a bit of upside. They’ve really talked up his rebounding so can see that continuing here. Grizzlies really should be winning this one against the depleted Nets.

• Kyle Anderson over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kyle Anderson Double Double @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.2 units

Jazz vs Thunder 12:10 AEST

Was pretty disappointing in his opener with just the 3 points on a team low 8.7% usage but I’m happy to give him another chance here. He finished that game with 3/13/3, still managing to get close to this line. As mentioned the other day, he had a team 2^nd 24.4% usage in the pre-season posting a 32/15/1 per 36 line. Not the perfect matchup for him today but the line has come down a bit and am more than happy to have a bet.

• Al Horford over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Been a bit of a rough start to the season for him offensively, with just 5 points and 1 assist through the 2 games going 1-6 from 3. He has however been very effective on the glass, averaging 10 boards. He’s looked extremely active so it wouldn’t surprise to see the rebounds stay, so to clear this line just needs to hit some shots. He’s been getting great looks in this Jazz offence with 5 of his 6 3’s being wide open. He only played 28 minutes in the opener, which was a blowout win, so it was great to see him get up to 34 in the loss against the Wolves. They should be comfortably winning this one today.

• Royce O Neal over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit

Rockets vs Nuggets 1:10am AEST

Has been awesome to start the season and I expect that to continue here in a gun matchup against the Rockets. He’s averaging 12 boards and 12 dimes through the 2 games, continuing on from his really strong pre-season where he averaged 14.5 boards and 10.6 dimes per 36. Last season 63% of his potentials were converted, so the 12 dimes per game is about expected from the 17.5 potentials. Wood will definitely help the Rockets rebounding woes but I still expect them to be somewhere near the bottom of the league.

• Jokic over 17.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 5.7 units out.

• Delon Wright over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.00 with Topsport – 0.9 units
• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Delon Wright over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kyle Anderson over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kyle Anderson Double Double @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Al Horford over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Royce O Neal over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jokic over 17.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1 unit
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