Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 27/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 2.95 Units Loss
• -6.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Celtics vs Bucks 10:40am AEST

What an absolute disaster last game but the role great and I’m more than happy to come back to him here with his assists. Loved the way they were using him in the half-court, with him holding the ball at the top with the other guys running actions around him opening up a ton of opportunities as he barely even looks at the rim in those situations. He’s had a little bit of a disjointed season, but the minutes have really come up in the last 2 games as Boston are struggling to get wins on the board and would expect another tight rotation here with him playing upwards of 36 minutes. The line has been set based on his season average of 5.4 (still getting a number below that) but he’s played just 31 minutes per, so that gets bumped right up to 6.9 dimes per 36 on the season so we are getting quite a big edge. He’s played 30+ minutes in 4 games since returning from injury and covered this in all of them including 6 vs the Bucks two days ago. No Teague here who had 2.2 minutes of touch time last game so expect some extra ball handling to fall to Smart.

• Marcus Smart over 4.5 Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

So unlucky not to have cashed last game and unfortunately not getting the same prices  but have to go again here. As mentioned, the Bucks have allowed the most wide open 3s in the league since the break and they looked like they were happy to help off Smart to slow down the other guys which is going to result in a bunch more looks for him. He isn’t shy and will happily fire away and although his shot hasn’t been great this season he is more than capable of getting hot. Still amazing prices for someone who is likely going to take 8+ 3’s.

• Marcus Smart over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.88 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Smart over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Marcus Smart over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Rockets vs Wolves 11:10am AEST

“Hornets were playing at one of the fastest pace in the league with LaMelo but that pace just isn’t going to be there anymore so we can expect a lot more half-court action for the Hornets. It was only one game, and the Spurs don’t exactly play at a blistering pace either but that game came in at a 93.00 pace which is a crawl. Hayward came out publicly and said he was going to be more aggressive, and the early returns on that were extremely promising with a bump in all the key statistics. His touch time was 4.2 minutes (up from 3.0), had 49 front-court touches (up from 42), had 15 drives (up from 11.4) and had 15 potential assists (up from 7.7). Finished the game with an awesome 27/7/6 line and should be busy again today in a really good matchup against the Rockets. Was tossing up between just taking the assist line or the PA, but have gone with the PA and getting some decent exposure to his dimes as there is some really nice upside if he’s going to create 15 potentials again.”

Have to come back here. Had 19 potentials for just 7 dimes last game playing under 30 minutes in the blowout. Gets another great matchup here against the Wolves and their 29th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks. Wood was ice cold last game going 4-14 including a bunch of misses off Wall which resulted in 0 assists but really expect Wood to be better today and he’s an awesome source of dimes for Wall once he’s rolling.

• John Wall over 7.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• John Wall over 11.5 Assists @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Hornets vs Miami 11:10am AEST

Not a great matchup for him scoring wise and he’s struggled against better defenders but he’s really been stuffing the stat sheet of late covering this line in 6 of his last 9 games (10,10,6 the other 3) averaging 7.4 boards and 6.4 dimes per 36 over that span which is about what we can expect from him today. Miami D has been awesome lately but they give up a lot of assists at 25.5 per game which is the 9th highest mark in the league. They aren’t a great rebounding team either giving up the 12th most per game. Had 15 potentials 2 games back and they get back home here after a tough 4 game west coast trip.

• Gordon Hayward over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Gordon Hayward over 7.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Blazers vs Magic 11:10am AEST

This Magic offence was already struggling with the 28th rank over the last 2 weeks, but they will be without their top 4 scorers in Vooch, Gordon, Fournier and Ross today and this could get really ugly. Dwayne Bacon and MCW are projected to lead the way for the Magic today which is not going to be pretty. Bacon currently has a 44.9% eFG which is good for 9th percentile (better than his 5th percentile last season) and MCW is even worse at 42.7%. Over the last 5 seasons, his percentiles have been 0,0,2,23,8. Portland are by no means a strong defensive side but they get Nurkic back here which will help and they play at a slow pace in the bottom third of the league. They had a game where they only scored 77 points against the Spurs with Vooch playing so this isn’t out of the question at all.

• Orlando Magic UNDER 103.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Orlando Magic UNDER 93.5 Points @ 5.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Both teams to score 80 NO @ 81.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Bets are a little conflicting, but this does just set up too well for Bacon to pass up on and if the total does go over it’ll likely be because of him. Can easily cover with them staying well under 103 as they are just so limited elsewhere. We’ve got a 78 minute sample of him without the aforementioned guys and he gets a stupid 12.8% usage bump up to 31.3% putting up 30.9 points per 36. It could be a painful watch as he really isn’t efficient but there’s going to be so much volume for him and he’s headed for huge minutes with just 8 guys available for the Magic. He’ll probably stay out there in garbage time too if it eventuates.

• Dwayne Bacon over 17.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dwayne Bacon over 24.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 6.6 units out

• Marcus Smart over 4.5 Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Marcus Smart over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.88 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Smart over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Marcus Smart over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• John Wall over 7.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• John Wall over 11.5 Assists @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Gordon Hayward over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Gordon Hayward over 7.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Orlando Magic UNDER 103.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Orlando Magic UNDER 93.5 Points @ 5.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Both teams to score 80 NO @ 81.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Dwayne Bacon over 17.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dwayne Bacon over 24.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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