Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/4

Results:

• 83.26 Units Profit
• 16.1% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Celtics vs Hornets 3:10am AEST

My word what an absolute disaster against the Bulls. Don’t think I’ve ever been more frustrated watching a bet. As expected, Vooch was just not leaving the paint at all so all PJ had to do was pop back out and he would’ve been wide open but instead almost every single time he set a screen he’d roll straight into the lane where Vooch was waiting forcing him to take a shitty little floater. Then there’s Borego who decided it was a good idea to play Biyombo more first half minutes than PJ despite them only being able to put up 44 points in the half… and then of course to top it all off he comes out yesterday and bombs 5 3’s playing 37 minutes. Odds have been crunched, but there is still value which just shows how ridiculous the prices were when we launched. Role is awesome and if you take out the Bulls game and the game he got hurt, he’s taken 46 3 pointers over his last 5 (made 21 @ 4.2 per game). Boston have given up the 10th most 3’s to centres on the season, and the 5th most over the last 2 weeks. Game is early and I’d feel better if I knew he was starting, but it’s very hard to imagine he doesn’t.

• PJ Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.00 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• PJ Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• PJ Washington over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Blazers vs Grizzlies 6:10am AEST

Love the way they’ve been using Nurk the last couple of games and after such a dominant scoring game, Grizz might need to guard him a bit closer which should open up some lanes for cutters. He touches the ball pretty much every single offensive possession as they just chuck it to him at the top of the key and have either Powell, CJ, or Dame come curling around for a DHO using his big body to create some space. It couldn’t be a better fit as these guys just get their shot off so quickly so it generally creates potentials when they run this action. He’s up to a wild 40 front court touches over his last 2 games (easily leads the team, Dame 33). He’s covered this line in 7 of his last 8, despite averaging just 24 minutes which are really starting to trend up as he’s a chance to play 30 here.

• Jusuf Nurkic over 3.5 Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 5.5 Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jusuf Nurkic Triple Double @ 61.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Wizards vs Cavs 9:10am AEST

Wouldn’t often bet something this low but it’s well over the odds of where it should be. Has covered this in 14 of his last 16 and 9 of his last 10, and he’s doing it with ease averaging 13.8 boards and 12.6 dimes over his last 15. Price is as low as 1.40 on B65 which is honestly probably closer to where it should be.

• Russell Westbrook Triple Double @ 1.63 with TAB – 1 unit

Playing big minutes up at 36,33 over his last 2 games and in this offence with Westy driving so often it just creates so many open shots for the surrounding shooters. Neto a big beneficiary as he’s had 10 wide open 3’s and 1 open 3 over his last 2 games, knocking down 6 triples with 3 in each. Really nice price here as I don’t think bookies have fully adjusted. He’s shooting 42.7% on wide open 3s for the season on decent volume at 96 attempts and the looks should be there.

• Raul Neto over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.88 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Raul Neto over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Pacers vs Magic 10:10am AEST

“Should be set for big minutes again here, coming off 29.5%, 34% and 34.5% usage games. The sample is growing now for Brogdon without Sabonis and Turner and the numbers are great, at 24.2/9.2/6.1 per 36 in 113 minutes with a 5.4% usage bump up to 31.8%. The wild part of this is that he’s managed to get to 24.2 points on just 33.3% shooting! He’s a career 46.7% and is 45.6% on the season so there’s a stack of scoring upside here from a number that already clears this line comfortably. Like the matchup against the Pistons who have the 25th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks.”

The b2b does scare me a little but ah the role is just way way too good. He’s at 19.0 drives per game over his last 3 and Orlando has the 30th ranked D over the last 2 weeks at a 120.2 rating.

• Malcolm Brogdon over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit

Warriors vs Kings 12:10pm AEST

Back to a favourite of mine here. He just showed once again what he can do against bad defences and he gets the worst of them all today. Kings D rating is 119.1 on the season, with the second worst down at 117.6. Crazy. This is going to be played at a wild pace and Dray is going to get a ton of chances to find guys on the break. They have an implied total of 120 today and Dray’s Ast% has spiked right up to 34.8% which is seriously elite. Averages 10.0 dimes in wins vs 7.4 in losses and it’s very hard to see them losing this one.

• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 2.63 with Sportsbet – 0.8 units
• Draymond Green 14+ Assists @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 6.5 units out

• PJ Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.00 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• PJ Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• PJ Washington over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 3.5 Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 5.5 Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jusuf Nurkic Triple Double @ 61.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Russell Westbrook Triple Double @ 1.63 with TAB – 1 unit
• Raul Neto over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.88 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Raul Neto over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Malcolm Brogdon over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 2.63 with Sportsbet – 0.8 units
• Draymond Green 14+ Assists @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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