Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/12

Season Results:

• 8 Wins / 14 Losses
• 4.40 Units Of Profit
• 33.36% ROI

Pelicans vs Heat 4:10am AEST

Jimmy is questionable so and he’s such a big part of this team it’s hard to bet anything confidently on any of the Heat guys. I think he does play but Bam gets a nice assist boost and Herro/Dragic will be busy if he misses. On the other side, I’ve been going back and forth on Ingram. I really think the dimes are legit this season, as his assist rate got a massive jump from 16% to 25% without Jrue on the court last year. It’s only one game, but he had 5.1 minutes of touch time (Bledsoe 5.6) and a team high 45 front court touches (Bledsoe 37.0). He did get a little lucky with 11 dimes from just 15 potential assists, with 7 of them coming from 3 pointers but there were 4 nice ones around the rim, 2 in PNR with Adams. Don’t expect 11 again as the Pels were hot from 3 at 45% but can cover this line at nice odds. Would definitely prefer 4+ if they offer it around the 1.75 mark anywhere.

• Ingram over 4.5 Assists @ 2.30 with B365 – 0.8 units

Warriors vs Bucks 6:40am AEST

Shambles for the Warriors in their opener, but there were several factors that made the score look worse that it was. Warriors just simply missed shots. They were generating good looks, but just went 6-18 on wide open 3’s, and 4-14 on open 3’s. Only took 1 tight 3 which was missed. Digging in deeper, Oubre was getting really high-quality looks, being open for all 6 of his missed 3’s (wide open for 4). 3 of them were from the corners. He’s obviously a much better shooter than this and was 37.4% on wide open 3’s last season. Only played 25 minutes to get those 6 attempts, so if this stays a bit closer and he can get up to 7 or 8 attempts, it should be enough to cover the low line. He went 6-15 (40%) from 3 in the pre-season so happy to forgive one bad shooting night where everyone was missing. Bucks gave up the most 3 pointers per team last season, at 39.3 per game so the opportunities should be there. 1.74 is available on Topsport but they aren’t taking bets until the morning, had 1.2u on but will take the 1.68 for 1u elsewhere.

• Oubre 2+ 3’s @ 1.68 with TAB/B365 – 1 unit
• Oubre 3+ 3’s @ 3.20 with TAB – 0.2 units

Nets vs Celtics 9:10am AEST

This Boston offence really just doesn’t have much other than Brown and Tatum and they will be getting heavily leaned on until Kemba comes back. Tatum was one of the league leaders in pre-season usage, coming in at 33.3% and that certainly translated into their opener posting a ridiculous 39.0% usage. He only finished with 30 points on his 28 shots (didn’t get to the line at all) but was great to see him get up so many shots. He had 24 or more FGA just 6 times last regular season, with scores of 29,32,32,33,39,30. He only played 32 minutes in the opener but Stevens has shown a willingness to play him massive regular season minutes in the past, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see that number get into the mid 30s. Far from sold on Brooklyn’s defence so happy to take them on here. Betting studs can be difficult because there’s such little margin for error at such a high number with foul trouble & game scripts crucial. If this game does stay tight until the end, Jaylen is likely going to need to have a big night as well, as this team just doesn’t have many other options so I’m going to get them in a couple of multi’s together. Kyrie & KD both looked awesome in their opener, scoring 26&22 points respectively in just 25 minutes apiece. Can feel pretty good about them having big nights if we do have another close game. Getting a little exposure to them all with a SGM.

• Tatum over 26.5 Points @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 0.8 units
• Tatum/Brown 25+ each @ 3.4 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Tatum/Brown/Kyrie/KD 25+ each @ 10.75 – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.3 units out.

• Ingram over 4.5 Assists @ 2.30 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Oubre 2+ 3’s @ 1.68 with TAB/B365 – 1 unit
• Oubre 3+ 3’s @ 3.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Tatum over 26.5 Points @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 0.8 units
• Tatum/Brown 25+ each @ 3.4 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Tatum/Brown/Kyrie/KD 25+ each @ 10.75 – 0.2 units
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