Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 25/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 0.13 Units Profit
• 0.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bucks vs Celtics 10:40am AEST

He’s as streaky as they come, but we are getting a really nice price here for a guy who is more than happy to fire away from deep in an awesome matchup. Since the break, the Bucks have allowed the most wide open 3s per game as they continue to prioritise protecting the paint so have to think one of the Celtics guys gets hot from deep today. He’s coming off a game where he went 3-9 from deep which is the second time he’s taken 9 3’s over his last 4 games (made 4 in other one).

• Marcus Smart over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.30 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Smart over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Nuggets vs Raptors 10:40am AEST

Was a little surprised Nurse opted to go with the small ball unit again here against Jokic, but it sets up nicely for OG who is the biggest beneficiary of that line-up. There’s an 86 minute sample of Lowry, FVV, Siakam, Powell, OG and OG is the only guy to receive a usage bump, up 2.4% as they use him as a screener and get him involved much more as opposed to just standing in the corner. He’s put up a really strong 17.4 points per 36 with the lineup, which is actually second out of the 5 behind just Lowry, and he has also taken the second most FGA in that 5 behind Siakam. Denver’s defence has definitely been better of late and they are sitting at a 111.3 D rating for the season, but that dips down a touch both on the road and on 0 days rest. OG has cleared this in both games since returning with 15,17 and is averaging 14.0 for the season.

• OG Anunoby over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Hornets vs Rockets 11:10am AEST

Hornets were playing at one of the fastest pace in the league with LaMelo but that pace just isn’t going to be there anymore so we can expect a lot more half-court action for the Hornets. It was only one game, and the Spurs don’t exactly play at a blistering pace either but that game came in at a 93.00 pace which is a crawl. Hayward came out publicly and said he was going to be more aggressive, and the early returns on that were extremely promising with a bump in all the key statistics. His touch time was 4.2 minutes (up from 3.0), had 49 front-court touches (up from 42), had 15 drives (up from 11.4) and had 15 potential assists (up from 7.7). Finished the game with an awesome 27/7/6 line and should be busy again today in a really good matchup against the Rockets. Was tossing up between just taking the assist line or the PA, but have gone with the PA and getting some decent exposure to his dimes as there is some really nice upside if he’s going to create 15 potentials again.

• Gordon Hayward over 25.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Gordon Hayward over 5.5 Assists @ 2.75 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Gordon Hayward over 7.5 Assists @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Huge beneficiary of LaMelo injury as he’s headed for a much larger and more consistent role. He should get into the mid 20s most nights with some 30 minute upside if he’s hot and he can get hot in a hurry as he showed back in Feb when he had 4 straight 20 point games. Been a little cold recently so just a small bet here but the upside is there in a gun matchup.

• Malik Monk over 24.5 Points @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Thunder vs Grizzlies 11:10am AEST

Although Maledon is listed as PG, I think we are going to see a big offensive game from Dort today without SGA with a ton of the ball handling responsibilities on his shoulders. Shai and Dort have alternated playing the last couple of games, so we have a fresh sample of this OKC line-up with Shai and Without Dort and everything is trending up for Dort. He had a ridiculous 22 drives in his last game which is up from just 8.4 on the season which resulted in him taking 22 shot attempts en route to an awesome 23/3/3 line. Also had 4.9 minutes of touch time (Maledon 5.1) which is well up from the 1.8 he averages on the season. Daigneault mentioned he wants Dort driving more, so with Shai out an extended period this is likely going to be his role moving forward (there is some serious shutdown risk on Shai so go grab Dort if he’s available in your fantasy leagues). We have a 130 minute sample with Dort on and Shai off this season and he clearly leads the team with a 29.4% usage putting up 19.0 points per 36 on just 35% FG (lots of upside).

• Lu Dort over 15.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Lu Dort over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.3 units

Rockets vs Hornets 11:10am AEST

“Getting a big edge on his points line here too, but the b2b has scared me off that completely so just going to stick with the dimes. We have a 78 minute sample of Wall with Wood on the court (No Harden or Oladipo) and Wall is averaging 9.7 dimes per 36. The Raptors were once a team I’d routinely avoid betting against but they just can’t click defensively and now they don’t have their best defender in OG. They are ranked 30th in defensive rating this month at a silly 121.2 so Rockets and have given up the 2nd most assists at 27.8 per game this month so the Rockets shouldn’t have any problems scoring. He’s covered this line in both games since coming back averaging just 31.5 minutes but I’d expect him to play a bit more than that today (worth noting he played 39 minutes in his only other b2b game this season). Expecting them to just run a ton of PNR today so he should get a bunch of dimes through Wood. No KPJ means more on ball time for Wall.”

Wrote this up last game but unfortunately ended up scrapping it, hope a few stuck with it as it ended up cashing easily. Role was unbelievable with an absolutely stupid 11.1 minutes of touch time (I don’t recall seeing a higher number this season from anyone) which is way up from the 7.7 he averages for the season. Wood really struggled with foul trouble playing just 8 first half minutes so they weren’t able to get much going in the first half together, but still combined for 4 assists throughout the game. Expect more minutes from Wood here with a lot more PNR action.  Gets the gun matchup agains the Hornets who allow the most assists in the league.

• John Wall over 7.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• John Wall over 11.5 Assists @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Cavs vs Bulls 11:10am AEST

Allen is probably the biggest winner of Sexton being out here, and he gets the dream matchup against the Bulls who have just been getting torched by centres over the last month giving up the most points and the 11th most rebounds. Sexton is a score first guard who uses Allen screens to get himself open, where as Garland is a far better distributer who looks for Allen much more in PNR situations. Allen averages 22.6 points per 36 with Sexton (and Drummond) off the court and Garland 0n, vs just 14.7 points per 36 with Garland off and Sexton on.

Started writing this up just as Sexton got ruled out but lines have come back at 15.5 which is probably just too high in a game I don’t have much confidence will remain close. Would be more interested in taking the 20+ for a lower stake.

Staking Plan – 5.9 units out

• Marcus Smart over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.30 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Smart over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• OG Anunoby over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Gordon Hayward over 25.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Gordon Hayward over 5.5 Assists @ 2.75 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Gordon Hayward over 7.5 Assists @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Malik Monk over 24.5 Points @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lu Dort over 15.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Lu Dort over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.3 units
• John Wall over 7.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• John Wall over 11.5 Assists @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport