Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 24/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 0.13 Units Profit
• 0.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Knicks vs Wizards 10:40am AEST

There’s no denying how good he’s been recently averaging 28.6/9.6/11.9 for 50.1 PRA since the break but this is an awful spot for him. The Knicks defence has remained solid post all star with the 12th ranked defensive rating, but they have been absolutely crawling playing at a ridiculously slow 96.0 pace which is 28th resulting in them allowing just 1o4.8 points per game, which is the fewest in the league since the break (Lakers 106.2). They just don’t allow points in transition with the leagues fewest 16.1 since ASB which is not good news for Westbrook who completes 21.1% of his possessions in transition scoring 5.9 points per game which is the 3rd most in the league. They’ve also done an awesome job all season shutting down the paint, allowing just 42.7 points per game which is the 3rd fewest. Westbrook’s jumper can fail him, but is usually pretty good in the paint and he’s scoring 9.6 PITP per game this season. He has some pretty contrasting home/away splits with a 49.3% eFG at home which dips right down to 45.6% on the road translating to 24.2 points per 36 at home vs just 20.8 PP36 on the road. I think it’ll be tough for him to score, but with the Knicks playing so slow the peripherals might not show up either and there is a ton of downside from the 20.5 RA line. Knicks allow the 3rd fewest assists per game at just 22.8 and are about mid pack at 13th in opponent rebounds. Since the break he’s had some seriously favourable matchups and he’s cashed in in all of them: Bucks x2 (64 & 45 PRA), Kings (50 PRA), Jazz (63 PRA) and Nets (55 PRA) but has had two sup-bar matchups and failed to cover this in both: Grizzlies (35 PRA) & 76ers (38 PRA).

• Russell Westbrook UNDER 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.3 units

Knicks vs Wizards 10:40am AEST

It was THT who I mentioned in my tweet the other day that lines hadn’t come up for. They ended up coming online just before tip but I didn’t have enough time to get it out but his PRA line was set at 21.5 against one of the best defences in the league so to see it jump to just 22.5 in a far better matchup after the role last game was even better than we could have hoped for is surprising. This Lakers offence is seriously going to struggle as their team is built around role players to compliment AD and Lebron, so naturally without them playing it’s going to be tough. THT is one of the few guys on their team who can get his own shot consistently so I think there could be a little bit of upside from the 28 minutes he played last game. His per 36 numbers without AD and Bron this season are awesome, at 19.8/6.2/6.0 with a 28.2% usage. His numbers were right up across the board last game as he led the team in drives with 16.0 (up from 7.8), had 3.7 minutes of touch time (up from 1.9) and had 53 touches (up from 33.2). He gets the gun matchup here against the Pelicans and their 28th ranked defence. There has been a little bit of buzz about the Lakers using him as a trade chip, so I think he’ll play garbage time if it eventuates as it’s a good chance to showcase him.

• Talen Horton-Tucker over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Talen Horton-Tucker over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Blazers vs Nets 1:10pm AEST

Was close to backing him last game against the Mavs which turned out to be a good miss but his line has actually come down to 19.5 here and I’m ready to jump in. It’s a little concerning how bad he’s been and I wouldn’t be backing him if he hadn’t put the runs on the board yet but he did have a really strong game against the Mavs so trusting his quality here. Has another game under his belt now and although it was a blowout the 15.3 first half minutes are an extremely positive sign that he was likely on pace to play 30+ which we can expect again here as a minimum. Not seen enough to deploy a full unit on him as he’s had the 3 poor games to 1 good game, but if he does have a good game and gets his minutes ramped up don’t expect to see these prices again. Scored 25+ in 8/12 games before he got hurt and gets a gun matchup at home here against the Nets. Pretty keen that Portland will win this one regardless if Harden plays or not, but I think he’ll be sitting this one out as it’s the front end of a b2b and the second leg is vs Jazz on national TV. Going the player performance route.

• C.J. McCollum over 24.5 Points / Blazers win @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

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Staking Plan – 2.9 units out

• Russell Westbrook UNDER 45.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Talen Horton-Tucker over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Talen Horton-Tucker over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• C.J. McCollum over 24.5 Points / Blazers win @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
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