Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 24/12

Season Results:

• 0 Wins / 0 Losses
• 0 Units Of Profit
• 0% ROI

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Cavs vs Hornets 11:10am AEST

He’s been one of the usage leaders in the pre-season coming in at 30.4% with one of the larger samples playing 4 games. Sexton missed the first 3 of those, but it was nice to see Garland still posting a 31.6% usage in the game they played together (tiny sample of 17 mins & Drummond missed this one). He hasn’t been great, but the per-36 line of 20.7/3.2/3.6 is hard to ignore and this has been on just 41.7% from the field.

• Garland over 12.5 Points @ 1.77 with Topsport – 1 unit

He’s been flirting with 3 point shooting for a couple of seasons now, but it looks like he has got the green light to shoot them when the opportunity is there. He went 2-5 in 58 pre-season minutes, at 3.1 attempts per36. If he hits one in the first quarter, he might look for a second and it’s worth a tiny spec at the odds.

• Drummond 2+ 3’s @ 11.31 with Topsport – 0.1 units

Think we are getting pretty crazy odds here. He is clearly not at all shy, jacking up 22 3 pointers in 87 pre-season minutes, which is 9.1 per36. There are lots of questions to be answered about this rotation, but I feel pretty good that LaMelo is going to get decent minutes straight away and as long as he’s out there he’s going to have the ball in his hands. Only have to go back to his 3^rd pre-season game where he hit 4/9 3’s. Definitely don’t want to be over-exposed here and he’s going to be extremely inconsistent this season, but at this price it’s worth having something on.

• LaMelo 3+ 3’s @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• LaMelo 4+ 3’s @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Pacers vs Knicks 11:10am AEST

Pretty keen here. It’s not the greatest matchup for him but he is set for a huge season and don’t think we’ll be getting this line for very long. Nate Bjorkgren wants this team playing faster, and the early returns on that are promising with the team playing at a 105.00 pace through pre-season up from 99.41 last season under McMillan. Sabonis looks like he’s gone to another level and is getting used in so many different ways posting a ridiculous 27.5/15.1/2.3 per-36 line on a team high 28.6% usage through his 3 pre-season games. He’s improved pretty significantly every season and I expect that trend to continue and it wouldn’t at all surprise me to see him figure for the rebounding award. He’s 21.00 on Unibet.

• Sabonis over 31.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units (UPDATE 10:03PM – Over 29.5 @ 1.83 is available on B365)

Another key directive from Bjorkgren was to shoot more 3’s, and the Pacers are definitely obliging getting up a massive 42.0 3 pointers per game in the pre-season. They were DEAD last under McMillan last season, shooting just 28.0 per game. The whole team is going to benefit so feel free to bet on a few guys, but I’ve singled out Brogdon who was scorching hot in the pre-season going 10-19 in his 80 minutes of action, putting him at 8.5 attempts per 36. 45.2% of his shots were from behind the arc, up from 30.9% last season. Keen.

• Brogdon 2+ 3’s @ 1.96 with Topsport – 1.25 units
• Brogdon 3+ 3’s @ 3.81 with Topsport – 0.25 units
• Brogdon 4+ 3’s @ 6.00 with Topsport – 0.1 units

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Heat vs Magic 11:10am AEST

No tracking stats in the pre-season, but to the eye it looked like Bam was handling the ball even more. He was racking up dimes in such a variety of ways it’s hard to imagine he takes a step back on the 5.1 he averaged last season. I’m not sure how Spo is planning on ramping these guys up off the quick turn-around, but if he gets mid 30s he should be covering this. Averaged 6 per game in the pre-season in just 22 mins, 9.8 per 36.

• Bam over 4.5 Assists @ 1.82 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Bam over 5.5 Assists @ 2.65 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Bam over 7.5 Assists @ 7.00 with Topsport – 0.1 units

Hawks vs Bulls 12:10am AEST

By no means a hot take, but I’m pretty in on him this season and like a lot of guys on this list, the early signs are really encouraging. He was completely mis-used by Boylan last season which explains the fairly underwhelming 11.3/9.4/1.2 line. He took just 29 3 pointers all campaign, so the 16 3 pointers taken through just 90 mins of pre-season action, is a very positive sign. He did however only hit 1 of them, but I’d expect it to come back around as he was a 41.3% 3 point shooter on 1.2 attempts in his lone season at Duke.

Billy Donovan also really helped Steven Adams in OKC as a passer, and it looks like WCJ is going to benefit too, running a fair bit of action through him in the post. He averaged 3.5 per game in the pre-season (5.6 per 36) which included a really nice 6 dime in 23 minute performance in their most recent game. This is an absolutely absurd price we will likely only see once.

• Carter Jr over 2.5 Assists @ 4.86 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Carter Jr over 3.5 Assists @ 9.21 with Topsport – 0.4 units
• Carter Jr over 4.5 Assists @ 13.93 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• Carter Jr 1+ 3 Pointer @ 4.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Spurs vs Grizzlies 12:10am AEST

I honestly can’t believe how good he looked through his 4 pre-season games. He’s set for a monster campaign and gets a perfect matchup against the Spurs to kick things off. He led the pre-season in dimes at 9.8 and amazingly he did it in just 25 minutes. That gets up to 13.6 per 36 which is closer to how many he’ll be playing here. I’m not sure what their plan for his minutes are, but he showed in the bubble he can handle a large workload averaging just shy of 38 minutes.

• Ja over 8.5 Assists @ 2.15 with TAB – 1.4 units
• Ja over 11.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.1 units

On the other side of the ball, Dejounte has shown some very encouraging signs through the pre-season. Spurs are all in on their youth movement, looking to push to pace where possible which suits his game nicely. He has a real chance to shine while White is still sidelined. Every report out of SA says he’s as healthy as he has been coming into a season and will be playing without minute restrictions. He’s a stat stuffer that has upside in all 3 categories, posting a 16.3/10.3/7.0 per-36 line in the pre-season on just 36.8% shooting. Can be even better. Had a team second 26.7% usage (Mills 28.6%). I started writing this up on Tuesday before the line had come out as I was keen to be betting him here, was shocked to see it this low. Best of the day.

• Dejounte over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.4 units
• Dejounte over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.2 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Dejounte over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10 with TAB – 0.2 units

Pistons vs Timberwolves @ 12:10am AEST

It is pretty clear to everyone other than the Detroit front office that Grant is not a high usage guy, but it seems as if that’s the role he’ll be playing (for the start of the season anyway). He had a team second 27.0%! usage (Rose 27.7%) which is a ridiculous spike from 17.7% in Denver last season, and the 15.0% in OKC the year prior. He’s going to be extremely inefficient and this may be a painful bet to watch but it’s such a low line for how much opportunity he has ahead of him. He was pretty awful in the pre-season but still managed a per-36 line of 16.1/6.7/0.7, while shooting just 29.3%.

• Grant over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 12 units out.

• Garland over 12.5 Points @ 1.77 – 1 unit
• Drummond 2+ 3’s @ 11.31 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• LaMelo 3+ 3’s @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• LaMelo 4+ 3’s @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Sabonis over 31.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Brogdon 2+ 3’s @ 1.96 with Topsport – 1.25 units
• Brogdon 3+ 3’s @ 3.81 with Topsport – 0.25 units
• Brogdon 4+ 3’s @ 6.00 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• Bam over 4.5 Assists @ 1.82 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Bam over 5.5 Assists @ 2.65 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Bam over 7.5 Assists @ 7.00 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• Carter Jr over 2.5 Assists @ 4.86 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Carter Jr over 3.5 Assists @ 9.21 with Topsport – 0.4 units
• Carter Jr over 4.5 Assists @ 13.93 with Topsport – 0.1 units
• Carter Jr 1+ 3 Pointer @ 4.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Ja over 8.5 Assists @ 2.15 with TAB – 1.4 units
• Ja over 11.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Dejounte over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.4 units
• Dejounte over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.2 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Dejounte over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Grant over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit
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