Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 23/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 1.38 Units Loss
• -5.30% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Thunder vs Wolves 11:10am AEST

Huge spot for Shai today. He comes into this one fresh after sitting out yesterday, and Dort joins Horford on the bench today after his heroics yesterday. We’ve got a huge 234 minute sample now with Shai on and Dort/Hoford off and he gets a massive 6.3% usage bump putting up 30.6 points per 36. If we add Diallo into that we have a 99 minute sample where Shai gets a 9.9% usage bump and is putting up 33.7 points per 36. His role is phenomenal right now, with a ridiculous 26.3 drives per game over his last 6 which comfortably leads the league as the next best over that span is Donny at 20.8. He’s been involved with a few blowouts so he’s only at 32.8 minutes over that span too (Donny 36.4). Gets an awesome matchup today against the Wolves who allow the 2nd most PITP so Shai should have no troubles scoring off his drives. Maybe Okogie gets the spot start to try slow him down, but either way Shai should crush here. Wolves defence as a whole has been awful over the last 2 weeks (and season) at a 118.8 D rating so it is hard to imagine OKC can’t stick with them here.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Rockets vs Raptors 12:10pm AEST

Getting a big edge on his points line here too, but the b2b has scared me off that completely so just going to stick with the dimes. We have a 78 minute sample of Wall with Wood on the court (No Harden or Oladipo) and Wall is averaging 9.7 dimes per 36. The Raptors were once a team I’d routinely avoid betting against but they just can’t click defensively and now they don’t have their best defender in OG. They are ranked 30th in defensive rating this month at a silly 121.2 so Rockets and have given up the 2nd most assists at 27.8 per game this month so the Rockets shouldn’t have any problems scoring. He’s covered this line in both games since coming back averaging just 31.5 minutes but I’d expect him to play a bit more than that today (worth noting he played 39 minutes in his only other b2b game this season). Expecting them to just run a ton of PNR today so he should get a bunch of dimes through Wood. No KPJ means more on ball time for Wall.

*** Wrote this up as an assists bet before it came through he has a minutes limit so scrapping it.

Very very scary slate today and would tread with caution for those who bet themselves too. Lots of teams on b2b’s and with the condensed schedules, from here on out I will likely be avoiding them completely as the wear on these guys is really beginning to show. There are also a few key injury related outs but it looks like the bookies have done quite a good job with inflating lines. Post trade deadline is always an awesome time to bet with so much player movement / rotation changes so can probably expect a little more volume soon. Quick hit on a few I had a good look at today;

Cavs guys in cupcake vs Kings: Would be really into Sexton and Garland here as it’s such a nice spot, but they’ve been logging some heavy minutes of late and it is their 5th game in 7 days which scares the shit out of me. Nance has some upside but been a bit inconsistent.

Moses Brown: Gets a pretty nice spot against the Wolves who have just leaked points everywhere, especially in the paint as mentioned above, but his line is getting high enough as he is only at a shade under 25 PR per 28 minutes. Also been extremely foul prone and comes up against KAT who can be very good at drawing fouls.

John Wall: Above^

Indiana/Bucks: Might have something later but it’s an awfully scheduled game for Indiana and they could be without Turner and Brogdon so it really wouldn’t shock to see them get blown out here even without Giannis. Jrue has some assist upside.

Favors: May have a play if Gobert is out as Bulls front-court has been getting smashed. I think he will play though.

Staking Plan – 1.3 units out

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.1 unit
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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