Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 23/2

Season Results:

• 180 Wins / 363 Losses
• 92.58 Units Profit
• +32.22% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Rockets vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

They’ve had plenty of time off here so Eric Gordon should be ready to go. He has a 106 minute sample this season without Harden, Wood, Cousins & Oladipo and has really cashed in with an awesome 29.0/2.7/6.7 per 36 line. I’d think they try and have one of either Wall or Gordon out there most of the time today so if I include Wall in that sample, Gordon has a staggering 34.3/3.2/8.4 per 36 line on 32% usage. Won’t get a ton of minutes without Wall but should be able to really take advantage when he does. He gets an awesome matchup today against the Bulls and their 20th ranked defence. Gordon doesn’t run a ton of PNR, but he runs enough and as I’ve mentioned a million times this Bulls team just can’t defend it. This game environment should be great to target with the Rockets defence really falling off a cliff of late too, and the Bulls pushing the pace at every opportunity. Could get a shootout here which is good for everyone. He’s had 6 dimes in his last two games, so pretty happy with the price we are getting here in what should be an even better role sans Boogie.

• Eric Gordon over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Eric Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Eric Gordon over 29.5 Points @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Suns vs Blazers 1:10pm AEST

He is just playing so well at the moment it’s hard to go past him today against the Blazers and their 28th ranked defence. His points line has shot right up to 19.5 which is a little scary considering a lot of his production of late has been on insane (unsustainable) efficiency, but we will have something on that as he’s definitely a chance to keep it rolling in the gun matchup. Taking his dimes today though as he’s just been a potentials machine over the last 4 games creating 20.3 potentials and it’s insane as he is doing it in under 30 minutes at just 29.6 (Dame 19.3 in 37.6, Trae 19.3 in 36.9). He’s really assumed control of the team and I feel pretty good about Blazers being able to hang with them here so it should mean CP gets 32+ in what really is a dream matchup.

• Chris Paul over 8.5 Assists @ 1.93 with TopSport – 1 unit
• Chris Paul over 11.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Chris Paul over 24.5 Points @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Jazz vs Hornets 1:10pm AEST

This sets up beautifully for Utah. Hornets allow the 2nd most wide open 3s per game and the Jazz create the most open 3s per game so expect their perimeter guys to just be getting a ton of open looks. As they are such a prolific 3 point team there isn’t really much value in most of the guys and it’s really hard to know who’s going to have the hot hand each night so just having a few smaller bets on Bojan and Royce, who are their main catch and shoot guys.

• Royce O Neal over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.02 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Royce O Neal over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bojan Bogdanovic over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 3.10 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Bojan Bogdanovic over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Wizards vs Lakers 2:10pm AEST

It might be a nice bounce back spot for their offence here as it has just completely tanked down to 107.4 rating over the last 2 weeks which is 26th in the league, but until I see it I’m happy to take them on. The Lakers are 7.7 PP100P better with AD on the court, and 4.6 PP100P with Dennis on, so it isn’t a surprise to see them struggle a bit as both of them miss more time. Getting 7 free points here for a Wiz team that is rolling at the moment playing really hard on the defensive end which has resulted in 7th best defence over the last 2 weeks and a 5-2 record including 4 straight wins against quality opponents (Celtics, Nuggets, Blazers, Rockets). Westy is playing big minutes and he just racks up stats with 3 triple doubles in a row now. He’s decent value as a single bet here too but the Lakers defence has remained pretty solid and they are playing very slow so just taking the player performance double.

• Washington Wizards +7 @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Russell Westbrook Triple Double / Wizards win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 5.0 units out

• Eric Gordon over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Eric Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Eric Gordon over 29.5 Points @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Chris Paul over 8.5 Assists @ 1.93 with TopSport – 1 unit
• Chris Paul over 11.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Chris Paul over 24.5 Points @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Royce O Neal over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.02 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Royce O Neal over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bojan Bogdanovic over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 3.10 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Bojan Bogdanovic over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Washington Wizards +7 @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
• Russell Westbrook Triple Double / Wizards win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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