Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 22/8

Season Results:

• 327 Wins / 209 Losses
• +108.35 Units Of Profit
• 19.43% ROI

Raptors vs Nets 3:30am AEST

It’s hard not to be impressed with how the Nets have performed in the first 2 games, but they are now down 2-0 and it seems like that was their chance to steal one with the Raptors shooting just 9-35 (25.7%) from 3. Joe Harris has been important for them, shooting 7-12 from 3 in the 2 games so he will be a massive loss. It’s a small sample but all 5 Nets starters have on/off net ratings between +34.8 & +74.8 then it falls off a cliff with everyone else in the rotation at -43.6. Nets were already playing a really tight rotation so filling Harris’ 36 minutes won’t be easy and will likely be a combo of Chiozza, Kurucs, Johnson posing some obvious chemistry issues.

• Raptors 11+ @ 2.00 with Beteasy – 1.5 units

It honestly feels like this is his team now coming off another great game with 24/10. It wasn’t as efficient as the opener, but from a betting perspective I prefer to see the volume and that’s what we got with 22 FGA. Is now averaging 27.5/10.5 across the 2 games. He had a team high 26.3% usage and played a team high 43.0 minutes. We know Nurse is going to keep the rotation tight and he’ll be eyeing off a sweep to get his guys some rest then. Might not see 43 again but should be around 40 if it’s relatively close.

• VanVleet over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

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Jazz vs Nuggets @ 6:00 am AEST

He was awesome last game with 9/7/8 in a team high 35 minutes, but it was his defence on Murray that really stood out. In the opener, he couldn’t get out of foul trouble so was a bit of a disjointed game from him but still managed 7 boards in 31 minutes. He finished with 0 assists, but he did have 6 potentials, so it wasn’t a shock to see them turn up in game 2. We won’t see the 8 again, but it is worth noting that he did have 13 potentials so even with Conley back in the fold if this offence is humming, we can expect multiple. He was on track to play 40+ minutes before sitting the final 5, and I think he’ll be in the upper 30’s giving him plenty of time to rack up some stats. Over the 8 seeding games, he averaged 12.9 PR per 36.

• O Neal over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1.25 units (Beteasy have been getting rid of odds/lines very quickly after posting so if you can only get over 9.5 I’d suggest just 1 unit)

Continued his offensive dominance over Rudy with 28 points in just 31 minutes. He’s now had 28,30,30,29,28 in 5 games against the Jazz this season. He looks in great shape and his footwork has been a joy to watch so unless Utah change up their defence on him (which I don’t expect) he should crush again. He’s had a team 32.9% usage across the 2 games. Was on track to play 39+ minutes before getting an early night, and with the stakes getting higher expect around the 40 mark in this one too.

• Jokic over 23.5 Points @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units

Have had a lot of messages asking about including some more same game multis, and while I rarely suggest them there’s a little opportunity here. I expect this to be a close game, and we know exactly how these two teams will play in the last 5 minutes. Donny will take almost every shot for Utah, while it will be Jokic/Murray 2 man game on the other side. Would think the majority of points scored in this time come from those 3 which will help them hit their lines if they are in striking distance. Can get 7.00 for the points over on those 3 guys with Sportsbet. *not tracking this*

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Celtics vs 76ers 8:30am AEST

Doesn’t get as much credit as Tatum and Kemba, but he continues to be very good for the Celtics. He played 38 minutes in the opener with 29 points, then following that up with 20 points in just 28 minutes in the blowout win. I was a little concerned about his minutes going into that game, but he logged 27:11 through 3 quarters before the game blew out. With more attention expected to head to Walker/Tatum he should get some nice matchups against the very poor Philly defence. He had a 23.0 usage in the opening game with Hayward, but it was nice to see that get bumped up to 25.4 in his absence.

• Brown over 20.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit

Clippers vs Mavericks 11:00am AEST

He’s been amazing. He was in foul trouble the whole way in game 2, but had 28 points in just 28 minutes to follow up his 42 points in the opener. He played 38:21 in that one, so expect high 30’s again. The advanced stats are off the charts. He’s had 32.0 drives per game (2nd Caris 25.5, 3rd Brogdon 20.5) and pretty much missed a whole 4th quarter. He has a 39.9% usage and leads the playoffs with 9.9 minutes per game of possession. I think Clippers will try trapping him a bit more and maybe use some bigger bodies on him instead of Reggie, but as long as he’s out there for big minutes he should cover this.

• Luka over 30.5 Points @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Raptors 11+ @ 2.00 with Beteasy – 1.5 units
• VanVleet over 26.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• O Neal over 8.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1.25 units
• Jokic over 23.5 Points @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Brown over 20.5 Points @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Luka over 30.5 Points @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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