Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 22/4

Results:

• 83.26 Units Profit
• 16.1% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Thunder 9:10am AEST

He’s been better since returning from injury and I’ve been impressed with his aggressiveness. Part of it is due to the lack of bodies on the team but it looks like he’s playing with a ton more confidence also. We’ve got a pretty nice 110 minute sample of Bazley without Shai, Horford and Dort and he’s put up some strong numbers with a 23.8/7.8/2.3 per 36 line with A 5.4% usage bump up to a team high 26.5%. He’s covered this in 3 of his last 4 (25 other) and the numbers are up across the board in that span with 13.8 drives (up from 6.6!), 2.8 minutes of touch time (up from 2.1) and 33 front-court touches (up from 24.4). He’s had a 24% usage rate in all 4 games and gets an insanely good matchup here against the Pacers missing all 4 of their big men. There shouldn’t be much resistance if any around the rim so expect him to be able to use his size and capitalise on a lot of these drives. Wrote this up going to bet over 25.5 PRA, but TAB have gone up a point lower on his points line so we are getting more of an edge betting that. He’s covered it in 4 straight and 5 out of 6 since returning from injury.

• Darius Bazley over 15.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Darius Bazley over 19.5 Points @ 3.20 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Darius Bazley over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Wizards vs Warriors 9:10am AEST

He’s a triple double threat nightly and I quite like this matchup for him against the Wizards. Should be played at a wild pace.

• Draymond Green Triple Double / Warriors win @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Clippers vs Grizzlies 12:10pm AEST

Brutal yesterday as he took the first shot but couldn’t get it to go down. That’s 5 straight games and in this one I’d expect Zu to be able to win the tip against Tillman so happy to give him another go.

• Marcus Morris FIRST BASKET @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Blazers vs Nuggets 12:10pm AEST

Matchup is OK but this line is just too low if he’s going to play upper 20s minutes which they have said he is going to. He can be productive in all 3 categories which has worked out at a 0.92 PRA per minute output in his 10 games since coming back from injury. 22 minutes at that rate gets him there but I really think that he’ll play closer to 28 as Jokic just kills Kanter every time they play. He went off against them in a bubble game last season with 22/7/4.

• Jusuf Nurkic over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.89 with Topsport – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 3.0 units out

• Darius Bazley over 15.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Darius Bazley over 19.5 Points @ 3.20 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Darius Bazley over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Draymond Green Triple Double / Warriors win @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Marcus Morris FIRST BASKET @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.89 with Topsport – 1 unit
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