Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 22/3

PHOENIX, AZ - MARCH 13: Caris LaVert #22 of the Indiana Pacers dribbles the ball during the game against the Phoenix Suns on March 13, 2021 at Talking Stick Resort Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2021 NBAE (Photo by Barry Gossage/NBAE via Getty Images)

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 1.38 Units Loss
• -5.30% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Heat 4:10am AEST

Got unlucky on his assists under last time with his 5 dimes coming from just 6 potentials, but I am going to take the PRA under here as it’s just too high for the role he’s currently in with the Pacers. He’s now played 4 games with them, and is yet to hit this mark in any of them, averaging 14.3/4.0/4.0 and just 22.3 PRA. He hasn’t been playing big minutes, but it looked like he was on track for a Pacers high last game around 36, so even if we bump his Pacers numbers up to per 36 it still comes in under this mark at 26.1. With Lamb coming back into the mix we got a little glimpse of the shot distribution and it was fascinating to see 8 guys have 7+ FGA (6 had 9+) yet nobody had above 12 – which could be similar to what we see moving forward as they have a bunch of options on the wings. Since Levert broke out, he’s been far far more productive playing as a PG with the ball in his hands, but that’s not the role he has here with the Pacers as every minute he’s played he’s either shared the court with Brogdon or McConnell resulting in just 2.4 minutes of touch time per game. Pacers were scorching hot yesterday putting up 137 on Miami, but Levert still managed just 19 PRA. Even with that game, Heat still have the 5th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks so I definitely expect them to be much better here. His dimes have come up in the last couple of games, but he’s gotten lucky with 12 dimes from just 13 potentials so there’s some downside there. All the numbers are way down, but his drives per game has taken a monster hit from is time with the Nets dropping from 14.5 down to 7.3 through 4 games with the pacers.

• Caris Levert UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units

Pistons vs Bulls 10:10am AEST

His arrow is pointing straight up at the moment, with 23+ minutes in each of his last 3 games where he has been excellent averaging 11.0/6.0/1.6 and has covered this in 4 of his last 5 highlighted by a 13/9/2 game last time out where he ended up playing more minutes than Plumlee. Casey has been talking him up a ton and he has said he is open to using him as a 4, so with the Pistons a little short-handed there is a path to a few extra minutes. The matchup is as good as it gets for centres at the moment, with the Bulls giving up a ridiculous 34 points to the centre position over the last month, which is first by a long long way (Jazz 26.7 2nd) as well as giving up the 4th most rebounds to centres. Stewart is an extremely active live body, who plays somewhat similar to Moses Brown who absolutely destroyed the bulls last week with 20/16 in just 29 minutes.

• Isiah Stewart over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Wizards vs Nets 10:10am AEST

To their credit, the Wizards have done an awesome job staying in games they have been big underdogs in lately but I still just find them a bit hard to trust. This game has some crazy potential though so want a little bit of exposure. Rui is the biggest winner of Bertans sitting, as he has no competition for minutes at the 4 so should play in the upper 30s here assuming it stays close (was close to making this a play at 20.5 last night but left it and is now 21.5 so just the smaller bet through the multi. Westbrook is just ridiculous right now with 22,22,24,28 RA across his last 4 and Kyrie gets an awesome matchup here against the Wiz who allow the most points to PGs on the season.

• Kyrie Irving over 29.5 Points / Rui Hachimura over 21.5 Points + Rebounds / Westbrook over 20.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 2.3 units out

• Caris Levert UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Isiah Stewart over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kyrie Irving over 29.5 Points / Rui Hachimura over 21.5 Points + Rebounds / Westbrook over 20.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
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