Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 21/8

Big day today and a great start to the playoffs. Just a few bets for tomorrow.

Season Results:

• 309 Wins / 194 Losses
• +100.56 Units Of Profit
• 19.05% ROI

Heat vs Pacers 3:00am AEST

Mentioned before the opener I wouldn’t be surprised if this ended as a sweep and nothing from the opener changed my mind about that. Miami just have so many options and their defence looks solid. They kept Indiana in it throughout the first half with 8 turnovers leading to 21 points. Pacers were able to shoot 41% from 3 which is well up from 36.2% on the season whereas Heat were a bit below their season average of 39.8% at 37.1%. They have now moved to 4-0 for the season.

• Heat -4 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

A little sour we missed him in G1 but wanted to hold off to see how the rotation played out. He got right up to 34 minutes which was great to see, booting Nunn out of the rotation. Looked good in those minutes turning in a 24/6/5 line with a 28.8% usage (Jimmy 30.4%). He played just 28.2 minutes a night in the regular season but had a per 36 line of 20.6/4.0/6.5 so there’s no reason to think he can’t cover this again. He had a team high 6 minutes of possession and just 5 dimes from his 13 potentials.

• Dragic over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.25 units

Rockets vs Thunder @ 5:30am AEST

Not many positives for OKC to take out of game 1, but it was clear that Gallo is going to be crucial in this series. He had mismatches all game long and went to work scoring 29 points on 9-17, and 9-9 from the line. I wasn’t sure what Donovan was going to do with his minutes, but it was great to see him get to 33:12 before sitting the final 2 minutes of garbage time. Can expect to see him somewhere around there again. He he bumped up his usage of 26.1% through the seeding games to a team high 28.9% which should give him ample opportunity to cover this in big minutes. Rebounding didn’t show up last game with just 3, but he averaged 10.0 across their 3 previous meeting this series, so wouldn’t be surprised to see them come back here.

• Gallinari over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Bucks vs Magic @ 8:00am AEST

He was really good in game 1 with 15/6 in his 29 minutes. He had 7.3 minutes of touch time which is a tick over 25% (Levert 23.7%, Lillard 24.1%, Luka 29.8%). Vooch had a really high 33.7% usage and was amazing but expect him to draw a lot of attention in this one as Bud and Giannis both vocal about it. Bucks have the tools to slow him down with Giannis and Lopez and I think it’ll give Fultz a bit more space to operate. Had over 4 minutes of overlap with DJA which is good news. I do think Bucks come out and destroy Magic here but the line is low enough to get through 3Q. Don’t mind Vooch unders.

• Fultz over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Heat -4 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Dragic over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.25 units
• Gallinari over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Fultz over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
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