Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 21/4

Results:

• 76.61 Units Profit
• 14.99% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Nets vs Pelicans 9:40am AEST

He’s been a bit of a surprise to me but can’t argue with the production he’s given the Pelicans this season and he should be a major beneficiary of James Johnson missing this one as he’ll likely have even more minutes headed his way. He’s covered this in the last 3 games he’s played 30 minutes and his multi positional flexibility should get him into the mid 30s here with how thin this Pelicans line-up currently is. We’ve got a decent enough sample now for the season at 295 minutes, and his per 36 line is awesome with 11.5/6.8/4.6. Gets a nice matchup against the Nets here and their 25th ranked defence. This should set up as a nice game environment with plenty of opportunity to go around.

• Naji Marshall over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Hornets vs Knicks 9:40am AEST

Thought he may have been a little limited last game coming off the bench so stayed clear, but he exploded for 5 3’s but once again it’s the attempts that are just way way up. He’s now had 27! attempts over his last 3 healthy games which is just ridiculous considering we are getting even money here. He’s shooting the ball so confidently and I don’t mind this matchup at all for him as a big part of Knicks defence which I usually try to avoid is limiting opponents in transition, but P.J takes almost all of his 3s in half-court sets so shouldn’t be a major problem. I would’ve loved to have this been against a worse defence as Knicks can go to a switching defence which makes getting up 3s tougher out of the PNR, but the prices are just too good as P.J is just so streaky, have to ride him.

• P.J Washington over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.03 with Topsport – 1 unit
• P.J Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.50 with Sportsbet  – 0.3 units
• P.J Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Clippers vs Blazers 12:10pm AEST

Not something I usually bet on, but there is a clear trend forming so am happy to have a go at the price. Over the last 4 games Morris has played, the Clippers first half court possession has been a Morris jumper down in the post. 4 games ago, took the first shot of the game and rimmed out, 3 games ago took the first shot and made it, 2 games ago Morris took the first shot and missed, last game Zubac got a look in transition but the very next play (first half court possession) Morris took it and made it. So much can go wrong here but worth a crack at the price.

• Marcus Morris FIRST BASKET @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

He’s just balling at the moment making it near impossible to fade him and he couldn’t get a better matchup here against this historically bad Blazers defence. Get’s a silly 7.6% usage bump right up to 37.8% in 315 minutes with no Lou or Kawhi on the court this season. Had 5 straight 32+ point games (3 of them 36+) before needing just 26 minutes for his 23 points against the Wolves in the blowout W 2 days ago. No Nurkic today makes this just far too good a spot to pass up on the high (but reasonable) number and the Blazers should be able to hang around here. Averages 32.3/6.8 in the 4 games he’s played without Kawhi and Lou.

• Paul George over 26.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units ** Line gone I would now suggest to take 32.5 PA

Staking Plan – 3.9 units out

• Naji Marshall over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• P.J Washington over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.03 with Topsport – 1 unit
• P.J Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.50 with Sportsbet  – 0.3 units
• P.J Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Marcus Morris FIRST BASKET @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Paul George over 26.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
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