Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 20/8

We’ve got a huge day ahead with 12 bets across two games as we look to build on an impressive profit so far this season.

Season Results:

• 309 Wins / 194 Losses
• +100.56 Units Of Profit
• 19.05% ROI

Raptors vs Nets 3:30am AEST

Freddy was awesome in the opener with a massive 30/2/11 line in a team high 38:41 mins. His points line has jumped up a bit but I’m a little weary as he went 8-10 from 3. The dimes however can definitely show up again as the 11 came from 19 potentials. He had a massive 7.1 minutes with the ball in his hands (2 minutes higher than Lowry). This Nets defence isn’t good and FVV is a great decision maker so he should be able to get his team-mates some easy looks. He’s had 10+ in 3 of his last 7 outings so worth having something small on.

• Vanvleet over 6.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Vanvleet over 9.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Levert is also coming off a really nice game where he did an amazing job running the point for the Nets getting everyone involved ending up with 15 assists. Raptors made it very hard for him in the lane which was expected but I thought he did well not forcing his shot and making the right play. I made a note while I was watching that he was making some great passes for some easy finishes around the rim. He had 22 potentials in the game which is elite PG territory – Bron lead the league in the regular season with 18.4 ahead of Trae at 17.3. He also had 24 drives in the game – Westbrook lead the league in the regular season with 20.8 ahead of Luka at 20.7. It’s clear the Nets need him initiating the offence and with the Raptors tight interior defence expect plenty more dimes.

• Levert over 7.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
• Levert over 9.5 Assists @ 3.40 with Beteasy – 0.1 units
• Levert over 11.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Beteasy – 0.1 units

I mentioned in my write-up for G1 that he should have plenty of corner 3’s coming his way as Raptors allow the most in the league, and he did. He shot the ball terribly however only managing 1-10 from 3 but it was encouraging the attempts were there. It was also notable that Vaughn gave him 34:29 minutes on a poor shooting night which means he should be locked into big minutes again. With the ball humming around under Vaughn’s offence he managed to find a few open lanes and scrambled his way 12 points. He shot 37.5% on 5.7 attempts in the 7 bubble games he played so expect him to be better this game.

• Temple over 12.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1 unit

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Jazz vs Nuggets 6:00am AEST

Looked like an absolute stud in G1 shooting 13-20 and 6-9 from 3 on his way to a stellar 36/5/9 in 40 minutes. He completely shredded Ingles down the stretch so that seems an obvious adjustment for Snyder to make but regardless of who’s on him the volume should be there. I’ve mentioned time of possession a few times, but I think it’s a really strong indicator of who the alpha on the team is and who’s trusted with the ball in their hands. Murray had a team high 7.4 minutes (Jokic 5.7) which resulted in a 27% usage and 16 potential assists.

• Murray over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit

Line has jumped a bit and deservedly so after his herculean effort in the opener, but I still think he should be able to clear this. His advanced stats were Luka-like with a remarkable 44.4% usage, 10.5 minutes in possession, 25 drives and 14 potential assists. He was 19-33 from the field and 6-15 from 3 but got to the line a very impressive 13 times. He only had 2 points in the first quarter which made the effort even more impressive, but I expect him to come out more aggressive here and look to get himself going early. Jazz only shot 34% from 3 while Denver were at an amazing 53.7% so although Denver are the better team, Utah certainly aren’t out of this series and I expect we see another close game here which bodes well for Mitchell as he had a 60% usage in the 4^th quarter and 63.6% in OT.

• Mitchell over 33.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Mitchell over 34.5 Points / Jazz win @ 7.75 with Sportsbet 0.1 units

Ingles double / double Jazz win @ 12.00 with Sportsbet

As one of the league’s better shooters it’s been quite frustrating to watch him be so passive this season taking just 4.9 per game. Jazz really need him to be aggressive taking them, and he did just that in the opener taking 12 of his 14 attempts from 3, making 5 of them. He played 38 minutes in regulation so should once again be in line for big minutes and could be a beneficiary if Malone decides they want to be more aggressive defending Donny.

• Ingles over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.15 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Whenever Ingles runs the PNR he looks for Rudy on the roll whereas Mitchell is generally looking to score so if we get a lower usage Donny game and see more of Ingles handling the ball they can rack up the stats pretty quickly. Just a couple of small bets here to try capitalise.

• Ingles Double Double / Jazz win @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ingles over 7.5 Assists / Gobert over 19.5 points @ 7.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units

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Celtics vs 76ers 8:30am AEST

Looked great in G1 with 32/13/1 in 41 minutes. No Hayward here and all the guys in line to take his minutes are all low usage, so expect more shots coming Tatum’s way. I don’t think Stevens is too willing to give his bench guys extended run so am expecting another 40+ minute game from Tatum. He gets a 2.9% usage bump up to 31.8% in his 2211 minutes without Hayward this season. Thybulle defended him well with Tatum going 2-9 with just 4 points in 22.7 so I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw him move into the starting line-up. I was originally going to pivot to Brown who has a lower line, but under a little injury cloud I’m not positive he’ll play minutes in that high 30’s (should see 35 and still like his over 21.5)

• Tatum over 35.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

It was so obvious Celtics have nobody who can remotely guard him, so to take just 15 shots in game one was pretty abysmal.  He played 37.5 minutes – more than I was expecting – which is great for his rebounding. Was quite vocal after the loss “I got one job to do, carry us….I got to take more shots, be more aggressive” He had just 6!? Paint touches and 7 post ups and still managed to rack up 26 points on 15 shots. Hayward is a big loss for the C’s, as he boasts the teams 2^nd highest on/off differential at +4.7 (Tatum 11.4) so I think if Embiid can get going Philly are a real chance here.

• Embiid over 41.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit
• Embiid over 34.5 Points / Sixers win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Clippers vs Mavs 11:00am AEST

“Gets a tailor made matchup here. Clippers are going to make things extremely difficult for Doncic which will result in a bunch of open looks for the big man. When Zubac is out there, he’ll likely hang back off screens which leaves KP free to pop out to the 3 point line. The only game in the bubble he didn’t cover this line was against the Kings where he fouled out on 22.” Copy from G1 bet and nothing has changed. Still haven’t recovered from his ejection but saw more than enough to butter up again here. He had 14 points in just 19 minutes, on a poor shooting night going 3-9 and 1-4 from 3. The looks were there as expected, and I think he’ll come out firing here looking to make amends for last game. I really would’ve liked to launch at this, but his injury is a little concerning so may only see mid 30s opposed to close to 40.

• Porzingis over 24.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.25 units

After a few shaky games he’s got himself going with 15+ in 5 of his last 6, including 19 in game 1. With Kawhi and PG out there he often gets the benefit of mismatches and has been taking advantage. Doc had nothing but praise for him on both ends so would expect him to be out there for minutes in the mid 30’s. It’s a great matchup for all the Clippers guys as the Mavs defence has leaked points but with so many mouths to feed it’s hard to back the higher lines with confidence. I do think Kawhi is due for a monster night soon though.

• Morris over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Vanvleet over 6.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Vanvleet over 9.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Levert over 7.5 Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
• Levert over 9.5 Assists @ 3.40 with Beteasy – 0.1 units
• Levert over 11.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Beteasy – 0.1 units
• Temple over 12.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Murray over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit
• Mitchell over 33.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Mitchell over 34.5 Points / Jazz win @ 7.75 with Sportsbet 0.1 units
• Ingles over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.15 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Ingles Double Double / Jazz win @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ingles over 7.5 Assists / Gobert over 19.5 points @ 7.75 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units
• Tatum over 35.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Embiid over 41.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit
• Embiid over 34.5 Points / Sixers win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Porzingis over 24.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.25 units
• Morris over 12.5 Points @ 1.80 with TAB – 1 unit
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