Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 2/6

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Nets vs Celtics

Bruce Brown was awesome against the Celtics last game as the Nets look for another option to replace Jeff Green’s minutes and he played a series high 24 minutes. He was definitely aided by the Celtics going a touch smaller not using TT, but I would expect something similar here as the Celtics will likely need some offence from the 5 spot if they are going to mount a comeback (expect them to be down early and big here). He’s averaging 13.5 PRA for the series but in sub 20 minutes, and with him likely getting up to 24 here he has a shot at another nice game.

• Bruce Brown over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit

Gets grim very quickly when doing the minutes projections for the Celtics today with Pritchard, Langford, Nesmith, Williams and Parker all likely to get 10+ with at least 2 getting 20+. It is a big number of course, but they won their home opener by 11 when they shot awfully, the next game by 22 and then just won by 15 on the road. It was somewhat encouraging that the big 3 played right until the end despite the game being over by the end of the 3rd quarter so they should have chances to extend the lead. Don’t really see how this one ends in any other fashion than a blowout.

• Brooklyn Nets -12.5 @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Blazers vs Nuggets

Wasn’t sure how to play this, as I like all 3 of these bets but all of them are correlated so I don’t want to be overexposed. There are a few angles here. There was some absolutely awful defence played on Dame earlier in the series, as he was just able to call Nurk up to set a screen, and step straight into a wide open 3 whenever he wanted. That coverage changed as the Nuggets were much more aggressive in G4 leading to a series low 20.9% usage rate for Dame after being above 34% in the first 3 games. Obviously that usage has to go somewhere, and both CJ/Nurk saw a nice usage bump with CJ coming in at a team high 29.6% with 5.4 minutes of touch time and Nurk at 22.8% after not seeing above 18.2 for the series. I would love to have a bigger bet on Nurk, as he’s headed for huge minutes again here, likely being matched with Jokic. He’s played 18 and 19 first half minutes over the last 2 games. Could push close to 40 here and he’s been awesome with a 16.5/13.7/4.0 per 36 line in the series but the foul trouble scares me too much as he needs the minutes to produce.

• Damian Lillard UNDER 31.5 Points @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• CJ McCollum over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with Topsport – 0.5 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 0.5 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lillard UNDER 30.5 Pts / CJ over 31.5 PRA / Nurkic over 29.5 PRA @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.4 units

Staking Plan – 4 units out

• Bruce Brown over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• Brooklyn Nets -12.5 @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Damian Lillard UNDER 31.5 Points @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• CJ McCollum over 31.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with Topsport – 0.5 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 0.5 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lillard UNDER 30.5 Pts / CJ over 31.5 PRA / Nurkic over 29.5 PRA @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.4 units

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