Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 2/4

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Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 2.95 Units Loss
• -6.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

76ers vs Cavs 10:10am AEST

Assist numbers haven’t really been there for him with 4,4,12,2,3 over his last 5, but he has nightly upside and the recent lack of dimes has given us a good price here. We have a 50 minute sample of the Sixers line-up with Scott at centre and Simmons has 14 dimes, which works out to 9.9 per 36.

• Ben Simmons over 9.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Wizards vs Pistons 10:10am AEST

Set for huge minutes again here after playing 36,40 his last two without Bertans and Beal. He has been awesome with 26+ Pts in both games but it’s the shot distribution that makes me interested here as he’s taken 24+ FGA in both games so the scoring is certainly sustainable. The stats are right up across the board over the last 2 games with a 28.1% usage (up from 18.1%), 10 drives (up from 3.9), 2.8 minutes of touch time (up from 1.6), 41 front court touches (up from 23.3). Has 37 PRA in both of his previous 2 games.

• Rui Hachimura over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Rui Hachimura over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Nets vs Hornets 10:40am AEST

He hasn’t exactly been lighting it up recently but his numbers without Levert/Harden/KD this season point to us having a massive edge here so it’s hard to pass up on. We have a really nice 167 minute sample and he’s been awesome getting a 5.1% usage bump posting a 24.9/4.1/3.6 per 36 line. He’s going to be their second option a lot of the time he’s out there today so there should be some extra ball handling responsibilities and expect him to be aggressive. They may stagger him with Kyrie today so he could get some power-play minutes without any of the big 3 (4 including Levert) where he has seen his usage jump 9.3% all the way up to 25.4%.

• Joe Harris over 15.5 Points @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit
• Joe Harris over 24.5 Points @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Was awesome against the Wizards on Wednesday and gets another really good matchup here to keep it rolling. Since LaMelo got hurt, he has said multiple time’s that he needs to be more aggressive and the 27.4% usage he posted last game is hopefully a sign of things moving forward. He goes long stretches in game of taking a back seat but this is a very winnable game for them and we saw earlier in the season he can stay hot for multiple games. Nets look completely different now, but he did go off for 28/6/7 earlier in the season against them and they have the 25th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks. Nets are on the b2b here and they have a woeful 115.5 D rating on 0 days rest this season. Wrote this up before Monk was ruled in, so pivoting off the PRA to his RA line. Might be best to wait until he can string a couple of good scoring games together before jumping back in there as he hasn’t had back to back 20 point games since the ASB. RA has come back down to 10.5 and he’s averaging 8.3 boards and 5.4 dimes per 36 over his last 10 games. Played a huge 39 minutes last game and had 11 potentials.

• Gordon Hayward over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Gordon Hayward double double / Hornets win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 3.8 units out

• Ben Simmons over 9.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Rui Hachimura over 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Rui Hachimura over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Joe Harris over 15.5 Points @ 2.00 with TAB – 1 unit
• Joe Harris over 24.5 Points @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Gordon Hayward over 10.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Gordon Hayward double double / Hornets win @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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