Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/8

Bit thin on the player props on this slate but really like Heat & OKC so more than happy to bet them.

Season Results:

• 309 Wins / 194 Losses
• +100.56 Units Of Profit
• 19.05% ROI

Heat vs Pacers 6:00am AEST

Not exactly the easiest series to attack off the bat as on the Heat side I’m not quite sure of their rotations and I’m not keen to bet the Indiana guys against this Heat defence. Jimmy is one guy we can be sure we’ll be seeing a lot of. He’s looked good in the bubble, with a per 36 line of 21.4/9.0/6.3 covering this in 2 of the 4 games (11 in 29 min, 7 in 15 min). Indiana have been the second worst rebounding team in the bubble and Jimmy took full advantage in their recent matchup with 11 boards in just 28 minutes. It looks like Heat are going to be sticking with Bam at C and Crowder at the 4 opening up a few more opportunities for him. He’s averaging 12.67 potentials per 36 in the bubble so the dimes should be there. I really really like this matchup for Miami and think the Pacers are going to struggle. Wouldn’t at all be surprised if it was a sweep.

• Butler over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Butler 9+ Rebounds / Miami to Win @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Heat -4.5 @ 1.90 – 1 unit

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Thunder vs Rockets 8:30am AEST

Just wanted to lock this line in for OKC now. I had them marked as slight favourites for the series and you can still get 2.30ish which I think is a great bet. I’ve got my eyes on a couple of plays for this game I’m looking at but waiting to see if any further news comes out impacting rotations. Expect bets up around 8:00am for this game and Portland/Lakers.

• Thunder -2 @ 1.90 – 1 unit

Although he has his flaws on the defensive end, Gallo is an elite offensive player in the league and gets a really nice matchup here. His minutes have been way down in the bubble (20.5 per game) but I’m just putting that down to Donovan being careful with him due to his injury history. I’ve struggled to project his minutes for the opener, but I’m expecting at least his season average of 29.6, likely in the 30-34 range. He’s looked sharp in at Disney, with a 25.8/5.0/1.5 per 36 line. With Rockets switching defence he’ll be getting a ton of mismatch’s and he has the perfect game to take advantage. At 6’10 he’s taller than everyone in the Rockets rotation who are dead last in rebounding, so he should be able to grab some easy ones. There is also the possibility Adams/Noel aren’t able to stay on the court and Donovan runs with Gallo at the 5 for a stretch which would only be helpful to his rebounding numbers.

• Gallinari over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Asssists @ 1.77 with Beteasy – 1.5 units

I was a bit hesitant here as I wasn’t sure how House may impact his minutes, but it seems like D’antoni is quite happy with Green so they should be there. He spoke highly of the Harden/Green PNR chemistry which has been at a very strong 1.46 points per possession. He’s had 12+ points in each of his last 6 games, averaging 16.1 in that span. He’s only shot 10-33 from 3 in that span and this line looks great if he’s able to knock one or two down.

• Green over 10.5 Points @ 2.00 with Beteasy – 1 unit

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Staking Plan

• Butler over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Butler 9+ Rebounds / Miami to Win @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Heat -4.5 @ 1.90 – 1 unit
• Thunder -2 @ 1.90 – 1 unit
• Gallinari over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Asssists @ 1.77 with Beteasy – 1.5 units
• Green over 10.5 Points @ 2.00 with Beteasy – 1 unit
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