Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 1.38 Units Loss
• -5.30% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Jazz vs Wizards 10:10am AEST

Awesome setup for Ingles here. Probably wouldn’t want this line any higher, but he should really be covering this in the premium matchup against the Wizards. Conley is out which means Ingles will move into the starting line-up and we have a really nice 7 game sample of him as a starter without Conley, and he was awesome with a 19.4/4.3/6.1 line. 6 of the missed games were in a row and in those 6 games, he saw increases right across the board with 4.7 minutes of touch time (up from 3.1), 69 touches (up from 54.1), 11.5 potential assists (up from 9.0), 18.4% usage (up from 15.2%), 10.7 drives (up from 7.6), 6.2 rebounding chances (up from 5.4) and most importantly 31 minutes (up from 26.5). Will be running the point a ton which is great as the Wizards allow the the most points in the league to PGs.

Wrote this up last night hoping someone would open with a better number than the 22.5 PRA as during that stretch without Conley he only covered this 4/7 times, but he had 3 games scoring 20+ points with 24,27,20 so it’s worth a little nibble at the good price.

• Joe Ingles over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Donny is also a huge beneficiary and we rode his assist line pretty heavily during the stretch Conley went down. His touch time went from 6.0 to 7.7 minutes and his potentials went from 10.3 to 12.7 averaging 7.0 dimes over the stretch. Hard to take the 6.5 line in a game thats projected to be a blowout, but think we’re getting a decent price on the little multi. Has a stack of upside IF this game does stay close so getting a little bit of exposure in the gun matchup.

• Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 Assists / Jazz win @ 1.95 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.6 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 9.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pelicans vs Blazers 1:10pm AEST

Just a little same gamer here as we’re probably going to get a very similar game to the last one with a shootout but not much edge on these higher lines.

• Zion over 31.5 Points + Assists / Lonzo over 6.5 Assists / Dame over 39.5 Points + Assists @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.3 units

Knicks vs Magic 10:40am AEST

Wasn’t sure whether he’d be starting or not but he’s got the nod and the line has only gone up from 15.5 to 16.5 so happy to get involved here as we know Thibs loves to run with the guys he trusts to Burks could be headed for big minutes. Knicks are without Payton (22.5% USG), Quickley (26.8% USG), and Rose (24.0% USG) and they’ll be replaced in the starting lineup by Frank who has a very low 14.3% usage so there is obviously some shots to go around. With Frank on the floor this season, Burks has a wild per 36 line of 26.1/4.9/4.0 in a large 118 minute sample. Not the greatest matchup, but he’s shot the ball far better at home this season at 45% vs 37.4% on the road.

• Alec Burks over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Also, just a quick note – some personal stuff has come up and I may have to fly over the Perth in the morning which means I’d likely miss tomorrow’s slate. Will try get some bets out tonight if it’s looking like that but either way will definitely be good for Sunday.

Staking Plan – 2.2 units out

• Joe Ingles over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 5.5 Assists / Jazz win @ 1.95 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.6 units
• Donovan Mitchell over 9.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Zion over 31.5 Points + Assists / Lonzo over 6.5 Assists / Dame over 39.5 Points + Assists @ 6.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Alec Burks over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
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