Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 18/8

Excited is an understatement. Nothing beats playoff basketball!

Season Results:

• 309 Wins / 194 Losses
• +100.56 Units Of Profit
• 19.05% ROI

Jazz vs Nuggets 3:30am AEST

I think it was quite clear coming into the bubble they were going to try get Rudy more involved on the offensive end to counter some of the Bojan loss, and the numbers back that up. He’s been at 17.4 points per 36 through his 6 games at Disney, which is up from 15.8 for the season. In his 231 minutes without just Bojan he’s been at 15.1 points per 36 but gets a nice bump to 16.5 taking Conley out of mix too. They are really thin without Conley and Gobert is coming into this series fresh, so I think they’ll be playing him big minutes off the bat in a favourable matchup. He’s fared well against the Nuggets this season, covering this line in all 3 games averaging 19.7 points. He has a clear athleticism edge over Jokic, so lobs should be in play all series. His rebounding is generally pretty safe with 7.6 uncontested rebounds per game (2^nd in league), and always has some upside. Ingles should rack up some easy dimes in the PNR with Gobert and don’t mind his assist line either.

• Gobert over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1.25 units

On the other side of the matchup, Jokic gets a matchup he’s thoroughly enjoyed this season too averaging 29.3/14/7 across their 3 games. Like Gobert, he’s coming into this one fresh and should be in line for big minutes. It’ll be an interesting chess match between the 2 big men, but I think early on we’ll see Jokic look to shoot from outside in hopes of dragging Gobert away from the rim. He was great in the playoffs last season, and saw a bump from 31.3 minutes in the regular season up to 39.7 minutes in the post, which translated into a 25.1/13/8.4 line and a 5/2.2/1.1 boost to his production.

• Jokic over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

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Nets vs Raptors 6:00am AEST

I think this might be a pretty rough series for Levert. He’s looked great at times in Orlando, especially now he’s making shots around the rim, but this is a pretty terrible matchup for him. Nick Nurse is an elite coach and this Raptors unit is an elite defence (2^nd in the league). Raptors have the personnel to make things difficult for him with OG likely to take the match-up, but possibly Lowry. Expect their game plan will be to get the ball out of Levert’s hands and make the other guys hit shots or create for themselves. I fully expect the Raptors to sweep the Nets in this series and there will likely be a few blowouts along the way, so even if Levert does find ways to score early on there’s always the possibility of him sitting the 4th. Raptors give up the most corner 3’s so another way to play this might be Temple 3+ 3’s as I expect him to be getting a lot of looks.

• Levert under 24.5 Points @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

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76ers vs Celtics 8:30am AEST

He’s been really solid so far at Disney averaging 26.9 points per 40 minutes, which is just about where I have him marked for the opener. He reached 39 in a fairly meaningless game against the Magic and is coming into this really fresh so Brown should have no problems running him out there for an extended period. He’s had a 24.7% usage since Simmons went down, which is slightly up from the 23.6% he’s been at over the season. Embiid has a great matchup here so expect Stevens to run some double teams at him opening up things for Tobias. Celtics are a good defensive team so it might not be an efficient series for him, but the volume will be there, and he’s been quite vocal about trying to get to the line more (12 attempts in the last 2 games in just 23.5 minutes) which will help. Even if Embiid does go off, Tobi can still get his like we saw against Indiana, when Embiid had 41 and Tobias managed to score 30. Simmons was in the team then too.

• Tobias over 20.5 Points @ 1.89 with Topsport

Mavericks vs Clippers 11:00am AEST

Gets a tailor made matchup here. Clippers are going to make things extremely difficult for Doncic which will result in a bunch of open looks for the big man. When Zubac is out there, he’ll likely hang back off screens which leaves KP free to pop out to the 3 point line. The only game in the bubble he didn’t cover this line was against the Kings where he fouled out on 22. Minutes will certainly be there for him and we saw him top out at 40 minutes against the Bucks so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit that mark again. Missed the 23.5 which would have been nice but this shouldn’t be a problem for him assuming Mavs keep it close.

• Porzingis over 24.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB or Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Porzingis over 4.5 3’s @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.1 unit

Might be the last time we get to back him with confidence as Harrell comes back into the fold, but it’s hard to imagine he plays much today after being away for so long. Mavs have been awful against centres in the bubble giving up the 5th most FP including a monster 21/15 game to Zubac on 10-10 shooting. He’s averaging 0.98 PR per minute in the bubble so if he can get his 20 minutes in a good matchup should be able to cover this.

• Zubac over 16.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Gobert over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1.25 units
• Jokic over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Levert under 24.5 Points @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Tobias over 20.5 Points @ 1.89 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Porzingis over 24.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB or Ladbrokes – 1.2 units
• Porzingis over 4.5 3’s @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.1 unit
• Zubac over 16.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
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