Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 18/2

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hawks vs Celtics 11:40am AEST

Theis is out again and with the Celtics on a b2b I think we might see a little more Time Lord today. Tristan was ok yesterday but was being worked by Jokic from start to finish so we might even see the 28/20 split turn into 24/24 in this one. Williams length and athleticism makes a ton of sense against the Hawks front-court. He is super super productive with a crazy 15.2/13.2/1.5/2.3/3.0 per 36 line so with a floor of 20 minutes (puts him at 16.2 PRA) and some definite minute upside in a decent matchup he should be covering this. He looked awesome against the Nuggets yesterday finishing with 8/8/2 and 5 steals in his 20 minutes.

• Robert Williams over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Robert Williams over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.75 with TAB – 0.2 units

His line is slowly creeping down but the role has remained the same with Rondo out and he’s playing huge minutes. Just hasn’t been able to get his shot to fall as he’s 4-20 from deep over his last 3. Has upside with his dimes as I mentioned yesterday, and if the shot can fall it brings this line well into play as he’s playing big minutes. There were games earlier in the season where his PRA was set at 24.5 so he is more than capable and we are getting a nice price here as he’s covered 24.5 in 4 of his last 7 and 29.5 twice. Been wildly inconsistent not even covering the base in those other 3 so leaving the base out.

• Kevin Huerter over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Kevin Huerter over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Pistons vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

The Pistons essentially shut Blake Griffin down so there aren’t any obstacles in the way of Bey and the early returns on that are extremely promising as Casey played him a team high 38:17 against the Pelicans. They’ve been trying to find him minutes all season as they’ve even used him at the 2 in some lineups so it doesn’t really come as a surprise. Now that they’ve done this it doesn’t really make much sense for him to just be used as a spot up shooter like they were doing earlier in the season, so expect the usage to come right up so the front office can get a gauge on what they have with him. He gets a really nice matchup here against the Bulls who have the 21st ranked defence and play at the 3rd fastest pace. A lot of his production has come on some hot shooting but he has a stunning 24.5/7.6/2.8 per 36 line over the last 4 games and is at 16.5/6.4/1.6 per 36 for the season. Anyone that is in line to play 36+ minutes against the Bulls has to have some upside.

• Saddiq Bey over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Saddiq Bey over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Timberwolves vs Pacers 12:10pm AEST

It’s not an ideal matchup for him, but his role right now sans Russell is ridiculous and I don’t think the lines have fully adjusted. He has been so so aggressive over his last 3 games with 14.3 drives per, up from 7.9 for the season. He leads the team in usage over the last 3 at 26.7% (KAT 2nd, 22.5%) and the production has really followed averaging 22.3/6.7/3.7. Having KAT and Beasley out there spacing the floor really helps him as his eFG% goes up from 42.2% without them to 70.2% with them (Both over 120 minute samples. Crazy). Nice to see the supporting stats starting to come along as well.

• Anthony Edwards over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units

Blazers vs Pelicans 1:10pm AEST

Wouldn’t usually advise jumping into Zion on a b2b but he only played 28 minutes yesterday and this is too good a spot to pass up on for him. It was interesting to note that SVG talked about how Ingram was getting tired yesterday but didn’t mention Zion, so I probably feel a bit better about Zion getting his usual burn here as opposed to Ingram. He’s in absolute beast mode right now averaging 30.5/5.3/3.8 over his last 4 and although Covington has a good reputation as a defender, he actually struggled in 1 on 1 situations and is far far better as a help guy. He’s too small to guard Zion who should have his way with him. SVG also said he wanted to use Zion more as the primary ball handler, which could be part of the reason for the uptick in production as over this 4 game span he’s had 3.5 minutes of touch time which is way up from the 2.3 he averages on the season. He’s coming off a 6 dime game in just 28 minutes where he created 11 potentials.

• Zion Williamson over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Zion Williamson over 4.5 Assists @ 2.95 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Zion Williamson over 5.5 Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

OKC vs Grizzlies 1:10pm AEST

Gets to return into a dream scenario here against a Grizzlies team on a b2b who’s new starting line-up is playing at a wild 110.1 pace. OKC’s defence has been awesome (1st over the last 2 weeks) so I’d expect Grizzlies really try and run here so they can’t get set. Grizzlies defence was in the top 5 during their stretch of wins, but a combination of missing some guys and the return of Ja and JV (both negative defenders compared to who they were replacing) has seen their defence fall off a cliff down to 27th over the last 2 weeks. No Horford today means Ja is going to be busy, and he has a really nice 25.4/7.2 per 36 sans Horford this season. I like him to shoulder a bit extra load today as well as the rest of the team is on a b2b and he should be pretty fresh after missing a week. Before he got hurt he was really picking up the volume across the board with usage, drives, potential assists, touch time all seeing big spikes.

• Shai Gilgeous Alexander over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 7.4 units out

• Robert Williams over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Robert Williams over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.75 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kevin Huerter over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Kevin Huerter over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Saddiq Bey over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Saddiq Bey over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Anthony Edwards over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.81 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Zion Williamson over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Zion Williamson over 4.5 Assists @ 2.95 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Zion Williamson over 5.5 Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Shai Gilgeous Alexander over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1 unit
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