Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/8

Season Results:

• 303 Wins / 192 Losses
• +102.17 Units Of Profit
• 19.89% ROI

Grizzlies vs Blazers 4:30am AEST

Although I love Ja, it is pretty clear that the undermanned Grizzlies aren’t a serious threat so it would have been nice to see a Portland vs Suns matchup (not that either of these are a threat either). Nonetheless this one sets up to be a fairly interesting contest. Portland’s weakness is their defence, as they have the 3^rd worst defensive rating in the bubble allowing a horrific 120.4 points per 100 possessions. Their starting line-up is even worse with a 127.7 defensive rating. Replace Collins with Trent Jr and that is brought down to 117.4, and down to a much better 105.6 replacing Melo.

It’s opposing wings who have been doing damage, allowing the 2^nd most points to SF’s and the most points to PF’s through the 8 seeding games. Memphis however don’t really have the personnel to exploit this with Kyle Anderson, Anthony Tolliver and Brandon Clarke taking up the bulk of these minutes. Out of these, Clarke is the only real offensive threat and his activity and athleticism are ideal in this kind of matchup against a discombobulated defence. It’s good to see his minutes at 26+ in 3 straight, all with varying game scripysso we can feel safe he’ll get at least that. He’s covered this line in 3 of his last 4 games (10 in other – missed a couple of easy ones so probably should have covered here too).

• Clarke over 11.5 Points @ 1.94 with Topsport

They’ve given up the 3^rd fewest points to PG’s (largely thanks to Gary Trent’s pesky on ball defence) as well as the 3^rd fewest points to Centre’s. In the 8 games they’ve come up against: JV, Theis, Tucker, Jokic, Zubac, Horford, Porzingis, Allen. Majority of these are low usage centres so the numbers might be a little off here. KP went off, but mainly from the outside (7-9 3PFG), Jokic was quiet with just 8 shots but was in distribution mode with 13 dimes & JV ripped them in the first game 16 points in the 14 minutes he was out there (foul trouble). He’s coming off a huge game where he had a team high 25.9% usage in his 33 minutes. Has always been a great point-per-minute guy but has had issues staying on the floor as he can be a massive liability on defence, especially against smaller centres. I think you can lock him for 30+ again in this one against the Bosnian Beast. He’s a bit of a barometer for the Grizzlies averaging 22.5/15 in their 2 wins and just 12.8/10.3 in their 6 losses in the bubble. They just don’t have the offence elsewhere to keep up with this Blazers team so look for them to get him going early.

• Valanciunas over 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365

Brooks might be the other beneficiary of this poor Blazers defence. He is obviously not shy and will have a sub-par defender on him throughout the game with Trent Jr covering Ja. Although I thoroughly dislike his game and has some seriously questionable shot selection, he’s been getting it done scoring the ball with games of 23,22,25,14 and most recently 31 since JJJ went down. He has a team high 29.2% usage in this period. I do think Blazers will ultimately win this one as the Grizz are pretty bad, but they’ve been allowing 123 points per game which is keeping teams in it until late (6 of their 8 games decided by 5 points or less) so Grizzlies should be able to hang around.

• Brooks over 19.5 Points @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes

Staking Plan

• Clarke over 11.5 Points @ 1.94 with Topsport – 0.5 units
• Valanciunas over 16.5 Points @ 1.90 with B365 – 0.75 units
• Brooks over 19.5 Points @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 0.5 units
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