Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/4

Results:

• 72.47 Units Profit
• 14.38% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Hawks vs Bucks 9:40am AEST

He’s been awesome lately but this is a pretty rough matchup for him against a Bucks team with Giannis back. This number has been creeping up and deservedly so, but his last 3 games have been 3 of the better matchups against the Bulls, Hornets and Raptors. Going back a week or so he played 2 games against the Pelicans, who although have an awful defence as a whole, protect the paint in a similar fashion to the Bucks (just no where near as well) and he struggled with games of 12 and 12. It’s not a huge number, but 22.7% of Capela’s plays are in PNR, where Bucks are awesome at defending giving up the 5th fewest PPP in the league. Capela is also right up there in the top 10 in put-backs, at 26.7% but that’s another area Bucks are awesome giving up the 4th fewest in the league. Overall they give up the 6th fewest points to centres and we are getting a number well above Capela’s season average of 15.4. He’s a little worse off with Trae in the line-up, at 16.8 per 36 with Trae (no Collins), and 17.7 per 36 without Trae (or Collins) so Trae coming back makes this a little nicer.

• Clint Capela UNDER 17.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit

Warriors vs Cavs 10:10am AEST

Back to this player performance double here.

“It has been 17 games since Kerr adjusted the offences and put Dray into this new role (started with the back to back 15 assist games against the Mavs) and in that time he’s averaging 10.3 dimes covering this line 12/17 times. In that span however there has been some shockers so have dug further in and the splits are awesome. Warriors have gone 8-9 in those 17 games, and in the 8 wins Dray has covered this all 8 times with at least 11 dimes in all of them averaging a ridiculous 13.38 assists in that span. Dray has versed 6 bottom 10 defences in the 17 game stretch and has a ridiculous assist percentage of 40.2% as his assist number is a clear barometer for how the Warriors are going.”

I wrote this about a month ago before their matchup with the Rockets, which was just before Wiseman came back into the line-up but with him out again for the rest of the season I don’t expect we’ll see this kind of price against one of the worst teams in the league for too much longer. The numbers with Wiseman are an absolute disaster across the board for the Warriors, so expect them to go through a nice stretch here to finish off the season.

• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 3.40 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Just such a good spot for Dray here adding a little bit more. He averages 11.9 dimes per 36 in a 392 minute sample with Bazemore and Curry on the court.

• Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Suns vs Kings 12:10pm AEST

It’s an awful spot for all the Kings today, and feel pretty good about the unders on most of them but singling out Barnes here who has seen a huge production dip on b2bs this season. He’s put together a really nice campaign averaging 15.6/6.8/3.5 (25.9 PRA), but has seen that significantly drop on the second night of b2bs averaging just 10.0/6.2/2.8 (19 PRA). This is largely due to an efficiency drop from 55.7% eFG down to 44.4% on the second night. It’s a large enough 10 game sample to be concerned. He played a huge 39 minutes last night, and 42 minutes the game before (just 1 day break in between). Comes up against a really strong Phoenix unit here with the 6th best defensive rating since the break. We’re probably going to see a lot more Whiteside today also, who’s 22.8% usage rate is far higher than Holmes’ 16.6%.

• Harrison Barnes UNDER 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 0.75 units

Staking Plan – 3.15 units out

• Clint Capela UNDER 17.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 3.40 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Harrison Barnes UNDER 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 0.75 units
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