Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/2

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hawks vs Knicks 11:40am AEST

The role changes on a nightly basis depending on the flow of the game but he got a ton of reps as the secondary ball handler against Indiana and looked awesome with 10 dimes and he wasn’t overly lucky either, as he created a huge 17 potentials. As mentioned some nights he just doesn’t get the on ball reps necessary to get dimes so it’s hard to back with confidence and this is a tough matchup, but the upside is definitely there as he has 2 10 dime games over his last 6.

• Kevin Huerter over 5.5 Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Kevin Huerter over 7.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Having another go here as it was awesome to see him get up to 32 minutes which was probably as good as we could have hoped for. This game is likely going to be pretty slow so I’m not too keen to have much on it on either side of the ball.

• Nerlens Noel Double Double @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Warriors vs Cavs 2:10pm AEST

Garland is a huge winner of the Drummond news as I’ve mentioned a few times now and will likely keep riding this line until it gets up a bit higher. He came through for us yesterday but it was a super frustrating watch as he got himself into foul trouble and ended up only playing 28 minutes. He managed 6 dimes in that time and although he only had 12 potentials, it felt like there could’ve been a ton more with some errand passes. The role was as good as we could’ve asked for as they were running so much through him. They could get absolutely belted here but he should still have plenty of time to cover this and I quite like the spot for Allen to be able to get some easy lobs over Dray.

• Darius Garland over 5.5 Assists @ 2.10 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

“The Warriors finally got another body back in the front-court but it didn’t have any impact on Dray’s role or playing time. He’s been awesome since moving to centre having 10+ dimes in each of his last 4 games, averaging 12.75 in that span. They run absolutely everything through him when he’s out there and he’s now playing 100% of his minutes next to Steph which is a great wrinkle for his assist rate as he averages 10.0 dimes per 36 in his minutes with Steph. This Magic defence is awful, ranked 26th over the last 2 weeks and Dray should have a field day picking them apart. It’s a rare occurrence that I’m not too worried of a blowout effecting the bet here, because if Warriors are to blow them out it’ll mean they are knocking down shots and since Dray has such a large hand in creating these shots he can still rack them up. We saw this eventuate in the first game against the Mavs where he had 15 dimes through 3 quarters in the blowout win. It’s a complete mis-match here and I was shocked the Dubs were -5 last night (didn’t notice it until quite late so didn’t post, still like them a lot at -8).”

^Write up from the last time we bet his against the Magic and am pretty keen again here at the good odds. Very similar scenario as this Cavs team has been even worse defensively than the Magic and with so many new line-ups they are going to really struggle communicating. When Dray has the ball in his hands the opposition only needs to make a small error defensively and more often than not it’ll lead to an open shot or someone cutting to the basket. Once the Warriors got down a little we saw Steph have the ball in his hands a bit more trying to take over, but the Warriors should be playing from in front here.

• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 2.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Heat vs Clippers 2:10pm AEST

“Smaller bet here as he’s been a bit inconsistent but I’m starting to feel a bit more comfortable about the minutes, and I’m not sure how correlated it is but he’s averaging 30.6 minutes in games Goran has sat, up from 26.4 on the season. He hasn’t really been able to put it all together in the same line, but over his last 5 he’s had 3 15+ point games and 2 11+ rebound games. Not really any reason for that so happy to take a stab he can have a big game here as he’s had 20+ in 3 of his last 4 (19 in other).”

^Really missed a chance to cash in on this one as he stuffed the stat sheet finishing with 10 boards and 2 dimes. The scoring just wasn’t there as the Jazz demolished them and he snapped a 9 game streak of hitting multiple 3 pointers as he went 0-4. Dragic is out again here so I like him to get 30 minutes again and this Clippers team on a b2b are missing their 3 best defenders so I expect this game to be played a lot differently to the game against the Jazz.

• Kelly Olynyk over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 4.7 units out

• Kevin Huerter over 5.5 Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Kevin Huerter over 7.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Nerlens Noel Double Double @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 5.5 Assists @ 2.10 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 9.5 Assists @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Draymond Green 10+ Assists / Warriors win @ 2.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kelly Olynyk over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
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