Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 15/4

Rockets vs Pacers 11:10am AEST

Results:

• 71.38 Units Profit
• 14.28% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Bulls vs Magic 10:10am AEST

This number is right on his season average of 5.0, but there’s been a little role shift for Lavine since Vooch has come into the mix as they are running a ton of PNR together. It makes so much sense and has been pretty lethal so would definitely expect it to be a heavy feature of this offence moving forward. Lavine has covered this in 6 straight games, with 44 dimes in that stretch averaging 7.3 per game. He leads the team in potentials in that span up at 12.2 which is nicely up from the 10.0 on the season and he’s been playing much more on ball as well with 6.5 minutes of touch time in that span up from 5.5 on the season. I mentioned so many times earlier in the season how much more efficient Vooch is as a catch and shoot guy, and that’s how they’ve been using him in Chicago as he’s been assisted for 74.2% of his buckets. It was Sato who was running the most PNR with Vooch when he first arrived, as Zach only connected with Vooch for just 1 dime in his first 4 games, but over the last 6 games he has 15. Expect Vooch to be heavily involved tomorrow in a game against the Magic and it’s a nice setup for both of them with Magic’s defence falling off a cliff of late with the 25th rank since the ASB, and they’ve given up the 3rd most assists too.

• Zach Lavine over 4.5 Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Zach Lavine over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Nets vs 76ers 9:10am AEST

Probably a silly price here despite the awful matchup against the 76ers. Nets are just missing so many guys across the board that he should see north of 30 minutes, and when he gets playing time he can be productive as he showed just a couple of weeks ago with 3 straight 20 points games. Just having a little bit on due to the matchup, but he should really be clearing the 11.5 line set too.

• Jeff Green over 19.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Another smaller bet here but really like this price for Shamet who’s moved into the starting lineup here so should be set for 30ish minutes. There’s just so many shots and minutes to go around and he could get some burn in garbage time if that pans out. Coming off an awesome 19 points and he’s up at 22.9 per 36 without Harden, KD, Levert and Aldridge with a 6.2% usage bump.

• Landry Shamet over 14.5 Points @ 3.45 with Ladbrokes – 0.4 units

Knicks vs Pelicans 10:10am AEST

Needed to see it first, as his minutes had been trending down quickly but it was great to see that Thibs is still happy to reward him with more minutes if he plays well. He’s an upside only guy at this points with so many guards behind him, but against the Pels he should really get a chance to start hot here as they’ve given up the most points to PGs over the last month.

• Elfrid Payton over 14.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Rockets vs Pacers 11:10am AEST

No DJ is huge news for KPJ. Over the last 10 games, DJ has had 3.7 minutes of touch time but without him here that is going to be split between KPJ and Wall, who are both in great spots here. There are no other ball handlers on the roster so he’s likely going to be forced into big minutes again and the opportunities will remain for him with. Porter got lucky with 14 dimes from 21 potentials, but 21 potentials is a ridiculous number for someone who’s line is set at 5.5. I mentioned yesterday in the Morris write up how bad this Pacers defence is without Turner and they give up a stack of assists, with the 4th most since the ASB.

• Kevin Porter Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 7.5 Assists @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

John Wall is just driving the ball a ton right now, with 14.3 per over his last 7 and he really shouldn’t have any trouble finishing around the rim on his drives here. Settling for his jumpers which is been way too inconsistent and he can have some absolute stinkers but happy to have a bet on his upside here in the amazing matchup for him. Has had 2 30 point games in his last 3.

• John Wall over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Heat vs Nuggets 12:10pm AEST

Jokic’s role is just so good right now without Murray and over the last 3 games is up to 20.3 potentials (up from 13.8), 5.0 minutes of touch time (up from 4.6), 67 front-court touches (up from 58.2) and 107.3 touches (up from 101.6) – 2 of the 3 game sample have been blowouts so all this uptick has come in just 33.4 minutes. Got unlucky again last game sans Murray with guys missing shots as he had just 11 assists from 22 potentials (50%) which is well down from the 63.7% conversion rate he has over the season. Although the Miami defence is good, they give up the 9th most assists and the 2nd most 3 pointers so Jokic shouldn’t have any trouble finding shooters on the perimeter.

• Nikola Jokic over 9.5 Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 4.6 units out

• Zach Lavine over 4.5 Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Zach Lavine over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jeff Green over 19.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Landry Shamet over 14.5 Points @ 3.45 with Ladbrokes – 0.4 units
• Elfrid Payton over 14.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 7.5 Assists @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• John Wall over 29.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Nikola Jokic over 9.5 Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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