Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 13/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 10.91 Units Loss
• -10.19% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Clippers vs Pacers 9:40am AEST

He won’t be going 6-8 from 3 again or scoring 33 points, but this line is just too low if he’s going to be playing 36 minutes like he did last game which I’m expecting. He’s averaging 18.0 points per 36 on the season which by itself would be enough of an edge to take this bet, but with no Kawhi the numbers get even better as he gets a 3.7% usage bump with him off the floor putting up 21.0 points per 36. Pacers are without Turner here and their defence just falls apart without him as they are 7.2 PP100P worse when he isn’t on the court, and their defensive rating plummets to 114.7 in lineups with Sabonis at C which would rank 27th in the league equal with the Timberwolves. They’ve also been one of the fastest teams in the league since the ASB with the 4th ranked pace, so this just sets up really well for Morris to have another strong game. Justin Holiday will likely guard PG, which barring any line-up changes would put Levert or Sumner on Morris (potential line-up change would be McDermott coming in for more size, but he’s not a good defender) and both of them are too small. Earlier in the season when Kawhi missed games, Lou was called upon to do the heavy lifting on offence which meant Morris still came off the bench for majority of the games and was only playing mid 20 minutes. Really think he’ll push into the mid 30s again here without Lou, and the sample for Morris without Lou and Kawhi is just awesome at 27.7 points per 36 with a 6.0% usage bump. Fairly heavy on the alts here as he’s been a bit feast or famine at times, but the extra usage and minutes should bring up his floor dramatically.

• Marcus Morris over 14.5 Points @ 2.00 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Morris over 24.5 Points @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Lakers vs Hornets 10:10am AEST

It’s going to be a slog here for the Hornets missing Hayward, LaMelo, Monk, Rozier and Washington. That is their top 4 highest usage guys, which means we’re likely going to see Devonte step up into a much higher usage role similar to last season where he was at 27.8% (22.9% this season) but he just is so inefficient with just a 51.1% eFG this season and comes up against the leagues best defence here. He’s obviously going to be the main driver of offence but with his inefficiency it’s hard to see them putting up enough points and if he has an off night it could get ugly. Been super impressed with the night to night fight we’ve seen from these Lakers while missing guys and it’s nice betting on teams you can expect to bring it every night. They are the #1 ranked defence on the season (#3 over the last 2 weeks) and am happy to trust their defence to get them through here. Would think a big Devonte explosion which he’s capable of would be the only way Hornets win this one.

• LA Lakers ML @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Devonte Graham over 29.5 Points @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 2.6 units out

• Marcus Morris over 14.5 Points @ 2.00 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Marcus Morris over 19.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Marcus Morris over 24.5 Points @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• LA Lakers ML @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Devonte Graham over 29.5 Points @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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