Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 13/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 11.88 Units Loss
• -11.66% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Knicks vs Lakers 10:10am AEST

Barrett has made significant strides this season across the board this season but this is a tough spot for him and this number is just way too high. The Knicks have a plethora of both guards and wings available now with Quickley, Rose, Payton, Bullock and Burks and it’s really taken the minutes ceiling off RJ topping out at 35 over his last 6 games (was scorching against the Celtics with 29 points on 10-14), averaging just 32.3 in that span. That was the only game in the last 6 he’s gone over this line, and he needed crazy efficiency to do it as his usage rate have plummeted as well, topping out at 22.2% in the last 6 with 3 games sub 20% (2 sub 16%). This number is above his season average of 26.4 PRA, but he’s seen a substantial production dip this season on b2bs where he averages just 24.3 PRA in 32.2 minutes. See’s a big efficiency drop on b2bs down to 44.6% eFG from 50.5% and that drops even further down to 38.8% on b2b games vs top 10 defences. Losing AD hasn’t effected the Lakers defence much (props to Vogel) as they have the 2nd ranked defence both since the ASB and over the last 2 weeks. This game is probably going to be a slug-fest with the total set at 205.

• RJ Barrett UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units

Jazz vs Wizards 11:10am AEST

He’s been good to us in the games Conley has sat and there’s definitely no reason to jump off now in an awesome setup at home against the Wizards. Since Conley’s big absence earlier in the season, he’s missed 4 games for injury management and Ingles has covered this in all of them with 17 vs Magic (bad matchup),  15 vs Grizzlies (bad matchup), 34 vs Wizards (++++) and 17 vs Magic (bad matchup). He’s averaging 18.3 points per game without Conley playing and couldn’t get a better matchup than this one against the Wiz plus we get the added benefit of Utah potentially missing Clarkson, who’s currently doubtful (I assume they’ll sit him on the front end here, if not may be limited). The earlier stretch of 7 games Conley missed, he saw increases right across the board with 4.7 minutes of touch time (up from 3.1), 69 touches (up from 54.1), 18.4% usage (up from 15.2%) and 10.7 drives (up from 7.6) but his scoring was a little inconsistent and he failed to cover this in some tough matchups against Miami and the Clippers x2 but showed the upside with games of 20,27,24 in that stretch. I’m skewing a little more alts here as he can get seriously hot and these prices are too good to pass up.

• Joe Ingles over 14.5 Points @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• Joe Ingles over 19.5 Points @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Joe Ingles over 24.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Mavericks vs 76ers 9:40am AEST

Could be a rough game for the Mavs team here in what I’m expecting to be a defensive oriented game. All season the Mavs have shown no interest in running, but they’ve slowed down even further with the dead last ranked pace since the ASB at 95.44. This has resulted in 84.2% of their possessions coming in the half-court which is the highest in the league by a fairly considerable amount. They come up against the 2nd best half-court defence in the league here with the 76ers having an awesome 92.1 D rating in half court. Mavs have slowed down even more on b2b’s since the break down to 94.75 pace and their scoring has dipped over the season averaging just 108.1 points down from 111.6. Luka is going to see a ton of Simmons today and he kept him in check last time they met with just 19/3/4 with the Mavs scoring just 97 points. This was a while ago and Mavs are playing even slower now, and also on the b2b. KP was out there and he’s out again here. The Mavs are 3.8 PP100P worse offensively with him off the court. It’s been a while but Curry can get hot, and Doc keeps saying he has trust in him so many today they try to feature him against the old team.

• Dallas Mavericks UNDER 107.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1 unit
• Seth Curry over 19.5 Points @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Bulls vs Grizzlies 11:10am AEST

Insanely brutal spot for all the Bulls today with their 4th game in 5 nights, all on the road, going from Miami to Atlanta to Minnesota and now to Memphis. Thad has been a revelation this season for the Bulls, but with Theis now there and Lauri fully healthy it’s creating a massive log-jam at the forward spots and there just aren’t enough minutes for all of them. Donovan has been going with a bit of a hot hand approach, but it seems like Theis is gaining the upper hand as it was him in the closing line-up yesterday and Young hasn’t got above 23 minutes in any of the last 4 games Theis has played. He’s had a big production dip across the board on b2bs averaging just 19.0 PRA down from 23.0 on the season. He’s averaging just 12.4 PRA across 4 road b2b games this season, still playing around his normal minutes at 23.2.

• Thaddeus Young UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 @ 1.94 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Memphis Grizzlies 16+ (Winning Margin 4 Bands) @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 5.3 units out

• Joe Ingles over 14.5 Points @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• Joe Ingles over 19.5 Points @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Joe Ingles over 24.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• RJ Barrett UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Dallas Mavericks UNDER 107.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1 unit
• Seth Curry over 19.5 Points @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Thaddeus Young UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 @ 1.94 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Memphis Grizzlies 16+ (Winning Margin 4 Bands) @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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