Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 12/8

Less said about today the better. Lots of action tomorrow but unfortunately with the time zones, it’s unlikely we get any further team news tonight which means it’s unlikely to get any lines. I’ll be up half an hour before the first game and will be posting any bets I like on twitter for everything prior to Dallas vs Portland where bets will be back on here for the remainder of the day. Will aim to have some up around 8:00am.

Season Results:

• 303 Wins / 192 Losses
• +102.17 Units Of Profit
• 19.89% ROI

Nets vs Magic 3:00am AEST

I was keeping my eye on him after Clifford mentioned he wants to try get him some more minutes. This was the morning of the Raptors game where Gordon got hurt, so naturally he was a beneficiary and had his minutes bumped to 25 against Philly & then played 33 minutes in the OT game vs Celtics. Looks like they will be missing guys again so I’d expect him to play 26-30 minutes in this one which should be more than enough to clear this line as he’s at 9.1 rebounds and 0.9 dimes per 36 in Orlando. It’s obviously mis-priced but am more than happy to take advantage of it. He’s cleared this in the last 4 games he’s played in Orlando, including a game he only played 9 minutes in. Nets are the 20th ranked rebounding team in the bubble so should be plenty to go around. May see Vooch limited too which helps.

• Clark over 4.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1.5 units

Another beneficiary of Gordon’s absence is Ennis. He’s surprisingly looked quite good over his last couple sans Gordon, being extremely active averaging 12/9.5 in 27.5 minutes. I’m not as certain with his minutes here, but in such a good matchup around 25 could be enough for him. No line for it right now but I wouldn’t mind having a dabble at his double-double odds if they were right. Might add it later if I see something

• Ennis over 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 with Beteasy – 1 unit

Suns vs 76ers 6:30am AEST

He’s the real bubble MVP. Just in beast mode right now. Has put this Phoenix team on his back and led them to a 6-0 averaging 30.3 points. He’s had the 3^rd highest usage in the bubble at 34.1 but has really stepped it up in his last couple when he’s gone full alpha scoring 35 in both and is up at 36.6% usage. He only needed 3 quarters to hit that mark today and now that they are one step closer and he’s as hot as he is, I don’t expect him to defer much as he’ll want full responsibility on the outcome. Philly will probably have Thybulle guarding him pretty tight but he’s completely matchup proof when he’s on these hot streaks. I don’t think they will but it would be ideal if Tobias and Horford played to help keep it close which is the only concern.

• Booker over 27.5 Points @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.25 units

Grizzlies vs Celtics 7:00am AEST

Wasn’t much of a surprise but he really struggled against Toronto, along with every other centre they’ve come up against with a scoreless effort. Clear forgive and gets a nice bounce back opportunity here in what’s looking like it could be a must win for the Grizz. Boston have allowed the 6^th most FP to centres in the bubble, giving up some big lines. Vooch had 26/11, Bam 21/12, Nurk 30/9. In the 2 games prior to Raptors (first 2 games without JJJ) he averaged 20 points, including a 19 point effort against OKC in just 24 minutes. He had a 27.1% usage in those games which was second only to Dillon Brooks.

• Valanciunas over 15.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.25 units

Blazers vs Mavericks 8:30am AEST

This is an interesting one. I would usually never recommend a multi, but this sets up as a rare opportunity. Luka and KP both have their lines heavily suppressed, which would make you think the bookies know something we don’t.. and while they usually get these right, I think they’ve got this one wrong. Carlisle had an interesting quote before the Jazz game yesterday – “you’re not supposed to rest your guys on national TV games, so that’s another factor that played into resting them.” Today, they are on national TV in a big game against the Blazers. On top of that, Mavs still actually have a chance to move up to the 6th seed so I think we could see them out there for their full sets of minutes in this one. If I’m right here these lines all of a sudden look extremely low and I’d want to back all 3 separately, but to limit the risk I’m putting them in a multi as I think it’ll be one or all of them to get up.

• Doncic over 23.5 Points, Doncic over 6.5 Assists, Porzingis over 18.5 Points @ 5.25 with B365 Betbuilder – 1.25 units

*Dame had 5 straight games under 30 usage rate before last game where he had a 41.1 usage. Have to assume he’s 30+ again today which makes me hesitate to bet on Nurk in an absolute smash spot here. Centre’s have been destroying the Mavs. Lopez had 34 and Zubac had 21/15. I think both Dame and Nurk are fine bets here to have big games.

Staking Plan

• Clark over 4.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Topsport – 1.5 units
• Ennis over 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Booker over 27.5 Points @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.25 units
• Valanciunas over 15.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Doncic over 23.5 Points, Doncic over 6.5 Assists, Porzingis over 18.5 Points @ 5.25 with B365 Betbuilder – 1.25 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport