Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 12/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 11.7 Units Loss
• -13.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Hawks 3:10am AEST

Volumeeeeeeee. He’s taken 16! 3 pointers over his last 2 games after taking 17 in his previous 5 combined. It’s definitely sustainable moving forward, as this uptick in volume has coincided with his move to centre. I’ve had a tough time catching him this season and he’s been pretty costly, but he’s just so much more productive at the 5 as he gets involved in almost every offensive possession as the screen man. He’s a comfortable outside shooter, and against Capela here who likes to just sit in the paint and play conventional PNR defence, I’d expect him to pop more than roll and he should be pretty wide open when he does. Over the last 2 games, he’s been wide open for 12 of his 16 3 pointers, open for 3 and tight for 1 so the quality of looks he’s getting are great which is a good sign he has timing the chemistry/timing down with his guards. Similarly to when we bet Smart, any time you get such good prices about a guy with such high volume you have to take them. Been a touch better at home on the season knocking down 37.5% of his triples. Quite like his o12.5 points line too.

• P.J Washington over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• P.J Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• P.J Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

It’s been a bit of a ‘by committee’ approach to the Hornets offence since their top 3 usage guys went down, with 8 of their 9 rotation pieces are sitting between 16.1% and 20.5% usage rate over the last 3 games, with Rozier the exception up at 25.4%. Jalen has been the clear biggest beneficiary averaging 20/6/4 since moving into the starting line-up (quite like his o20.5 PRA too), but with such a clear directive on sharing the ball (they have made 320 passes per game across the last 3, which is third in the league with a big gap down to 4th with the Cavs at 309) Bridges has found himself with some seriously good looks at the rim and he’s 14/21 over the last 2 games. He’s also shot over 50% from 3 in 4 games straight but he isn’t that good a shooter so am a little worried thats unsustainable, but getting pretty nice prices on him here as he’s had 23+ in 2 of his last 4 including 26 last game. It’s not the greatest matchup for him but he’s locked into a 36+ minute role so it’s worth having a bit on hoping he can stay hot. Plenty of upside with so many shots up for grabs and he’s playing such big minutes.

• Miles Bridges over 19.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Miles Bridges over 24.5 Points @ 19.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Bucks vs Magic 9:10am AEST

A couple of awful shooting performances have kept Middleton’s line down here but the usage is still great and I quite like this matchup for him. In this 3 games Middleton has played since Giannis got hurt, he’s had a 3o.3% usage rate (up from 24.4%), which is about in line with his season long on/off splits where he’s seen a 6.8% usage bump up to 32% posting an awesome 27.3/6.0 per 36 line. Obviously a little different now that Jrue is here, but going back to last season Middleton was 31/8 per 36 without Giannis averaging 29/5.9 in the 7 games he sat. This season, in the 5 games Giannis has missed Middleton is averaging 22/5.4 which is still enough to cover this line, despite shooting just 40% from the field across the sample. As a perennial 50/40/90 guy would expect him to bounce back here after a few days off.

• Khris Middleton over 25.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton over 29.5 Points @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Mavs vs Spurs 10:10am AEST

Another guy I’ve had a tough time with this season but he’s been awesome the last couple of games and he gets a perfect matchup here. Almost all his game is based around his jumper so he’s had a bit of trouble this season with switching defences, as it means he doesn’t have much space to get the shot off (although he can still shoot over most people) and he has a fairly limited post game so isn’t great at capitalising when smaller defenders switch onto him. The two game set against the Blazers earlier this season was a prime example of then when Melo locked him up just by not giving him any room down in the post. Poeltl is a very good rim protector, but has his mobility limitations which means Spurs are forced to play drop coverage and leave him down low so KP shouldn’t have any trouble getting his shots after setting screens here. They first time they met Aldridge was playing so a bit different but KP still had a nice game with 21/8 but their most recent encounter it was Jakob playing 32 minutes and KP lit him up with 28/14. Spurs have given up the 9th most points and 6th most rebounds to centres over the last month. After the debacle in the 4th quarter against the Rockets it’s hard to imagine KP goes any long stretches here without getting his shots.

• Kristaps Porzingis over 30.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Bulls vs Wolves 10:10am AEST

This could end up turning into a really nice game environment but nothing coming through too strongly as a play, just want some exposure.

• Anthony Edwards over 2.5 Assists / D’Angelo Russell over 19.5 Points / Zach Lavine over 30.5 Points + Assists @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 4.2 units out

• P.J Washington over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• P.J Washington over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• P.J Washington over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Miles Bridges over 19.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Miles Bridges over 24.5 Points @ 19.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Khris Middleton over 25.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton over 29.5 Points @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 30.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Anthony Edwards over 2.5 Assists / D’Angelo Russell over 19.5 Points / Zach Lavine over 30.5 Points + Assists @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport