Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 10/8

SALT LAKE CITY, UT - NOVEMBER 23: Lonzo Ball #2 of the New Orleans Pelicans in action during a game against the Utah Jazz at Vivint Smart Home Arena on November 23, 2019 in Salt Lake City, Utah. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Goodlett/Getty Images)

Up and down day today. Big launch on Bam paid dividends but gave some of it back in that game with Cam playing a surprisingly low 27 minutes taking just 6 shots. Hard to predict that. Lucky with a couple of OT wins which is always welcome. Early start in the morning for a big 7 game day. Have bets in the first 3 games, nothing I like in Celtics/Magic and should have plays for the rest of the day up around 8:00am when more lines are released.

Season Results:

• 298 Wins / 188 Losses
• +101.49 Units Of Profit
• 20.14% ROI

Wizards vs Thunder 2:30am AEST

Very flat the last couple of games and didn’t look himself at all, but he gets the perfect opportunity to bounce back here. This sets up nicely against the Wizards who rank 28^th on the season in opponent accuracy around the rim allowing 66.3%. Shai takes 38% of his shots within 4 ft of the basket and is a very crafty finisher. He’s dealt with a few big bodies in the last couple of games against AD & JV (Gobert 4 back) so should find this much easier against Bryant. CP has looked much better, but I am too concerned about a cap on his minutes to play him. Have to assume Donovan spoke to him about taking over 50% of his attempts last game from 3, so I think he’ll be aggressive early. He has a team high 27.4% usage in 338 minutes without Adams & Schroder this season. Still think there is a big night in him soon.

• Shai over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

He’s been good over his last couple and am ready to bet here after we’ve seen him getting minutes in the 30’s in back to back games. Brooks is giving him and Napier a bit of overlap which is where the extra minutes have come from. He leads the team with a 25.7% usage at Disney and has been great for them, averaging 14.6/4.2/6.4 in just 27.8 minutes. His last couple however he’s at 15/5.5/8 in 30.5 minutes which makes this line look a little low. He’s only shooting around 40% so its certainly sustainable as he’s been pretty high volume, with 12+ shots in all games and averaging 15 in his last 2.

• Ish Smith over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Raptors vs Grizzlies 4:00am AEST

Raptors were unable to clinch the 2^nd second with a win over Boston so have to expect they give everyone their full minutes again here. There is such a big drop off from 6^th (Philly) to 7^th (Nets) they won’t be taking any chances, especially with tough games against Bucks, Philly & Denver remaining. He had a poor game against the Celtics, along with the rest of the team, but looked great in the 3 previous, which were all sub-par matchups as well. Easily gets his best matchup here against Memphis who have allowed the 7^th most points to PGs in the bubble. CP had 17/5 in just 27 mins, Conley 23/7 and Dame 29/9. He covered this line in all 3 previous games, averaging 23.3/8.3. He had 10,11 dimes either side of the game we were on. Upside is there.

• Van Vleet over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit

Spurs vs Pelicans 5:00am AEST

On the Pelicans broadcast against the Kings, their reporter mentioned Zion could play up to 30 minutes in that one which is what I’m banking on here. They are still somehow only 1 game back from 9^th and with him taking a rest day there’s no reason he shouldn’t see extended run here. Kings had no answer for him, and it was quite baffling they didn’t go to him more often, so expect him to go back to a high usage role here. Giannis has taken over top usage in the bubble, but Zion is still 2^nd at 35.2 and is averaging 31.6 points per 36. Gets a cupcake matchup here as if the Spurs don’t make a line-up change, they will have Demar guarding him. That will not end will for Demar. Unfortunately, as we have no clarity around his minutes so far out from the game, it’s hard to launch at him but this is seriously as good as a match-up as it gets.

• Zion over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1.25 units

He is an ELITE passer and in a fast pace matchup like this against a below average defence, should be able to pick them apart with ease. He looks a far better player when Zion is on the floor with him and averages 9.3 assists per 36 up from 7.2 without. Over his last 3games he’s averaging 7.3 assists on 15.0 potentials including an 11-dime game against the Kings which was a high scoring affair, similar to how I’m projecting this one. After playing below 27 In the first 2 games, he’s played 31 or more in the last 3 which is good to see.

• Lonzo over 7.5 Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.25 units

As I wrote last time, he is good at basketball. Crushed it again against Utah with 24/6/4 and is now averaging 21.4/5/5.2 in the bubble and gets another cracking matchup here. The Pelicans defence has been pretty non-existent at times throughout their time at Disney, and it was highlighted when the Kings who aren’t a good offensive team put 140 on them. As the focal point of the offence, Derrick should be able to keep it rolling here against the Pels who give have given up the 3^rd most FP to PGs in the bubble. His points and PRA lines are getting a bit high, so I’m happy to take the nice price about 3+ 3’s. He has hit 3 or more in every bubble game so far, knocking down 4 of them in all but 1. Pop came out and said he want’s him to shoot 10 or more a game and he has done that over his last couple, taking 9&10 respectively. Pelicans are allowing the 4^th highest 3pt % in the bubble at 38.6. Have to have a little something on his PRA line as he is threatening it every game and as mentioned has a great matchup.

• Derrick White over 2.5 3 pointers @ 2.50 with B365 – 1 unit
• Derrick White over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.20 – 0.2 units

76ers vs Blazers 8:30am AEST

I don’t rate Burks as a player very highly, which is something I try to avoid when betting but the opportunity looks like it will be there for him. With Horford in the starting lineup he should have another high usage game running with the second unit. Brown mentioned that he will stick with the 9 man rotation, and that he believes Burks can co-exist with Shake so even if Shake gets hot, Burks minutes should be safe. He played 28 minutes against Orlando and did look quite good. He was aggressive taking 15 shots and was surprisingly efficient with 22 points. He had the 2nd highest usage on the 76ers at 26.1% and to the eye it looked like he was involved most possessions he was out there.

• Burks over 12.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Kings vs Rockets 10:00am AEST

Line is a bit higher than I would’ve liked but this is too good a matchup to pass. Similar to Shai earlier, he’s coming off a game where he was settling for outside shots, shooting 7 of his 15 shots from 3. Expect him to be more aggressive here after Walton saying his guards have to attack. He also said they are still playing to win until they are eliminated so should see his minutes. He’s 4th in the bubble in points off drives so will enjoy an uptempo game with no rim protection. Still leads the Kings usage comfortably at 29.0% – On the flip side I also

• Fox over 25.5 Points @ 1.94 with Topsport – 1 unit

On the flip side, Harden is in an amazing spot here too. He averages a ridiculous 44 points per 36 in 258 minutes this season without Westbrook or a centre. He comes up against the worst defence in the bubble who have an atrocious 118.8 rating. Can always feel safe about Harden’s minutes and we just saw him play 36 minutes in a blowout win. Has now had a couple days rest and should be a full go.

• Harden over 35.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan

• Shai over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Ish Smith over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Van Vleet over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit
• Zion over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1.25 units
• Lonzo over 7.5 Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Derrick White over 2.5 3 pointers @ 2.50 with B365 – 1 unit
• Derrick White over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.20 – 0.2 units
• Burks over 12.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Fox over 25.5 Points @ 1.94 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Harden over 35.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
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