Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 1/4

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 2.95 Units Loss
• -6.35% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Heat 10:10am AEST

Easy cash for us against the Heat last time and still can’t quite work out why this number is so high. He’s averaging 15.0/4.4/3.9 since joining the Pacers and comes up against Miami tomorrow where he averaged just 10.5/3.5/5.0 across their 2 game set. Miami has been crawling since the break with the second slowest pace and are giving up the 4th fewest points. He has only covered this line twice in nine games since getting to Indiana so just happy to take the under against one of the leagues premier defences.

• Caris Levert UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit

Knicks vs Wolves 11:10am AEST

He will heat up again, but he’s coming off 2 of the best matchups in the league and he only managed a combined 22 points so I’m happy to fade him until he does. This Knicks defence is legit with the 4th best defence since the ASB playing at the 6th slowest pace which is resulting in the 3rd fewest points allowed. They are stopping teams in a variety of ways but one of them is from behind the arc, where they are allowing the 7th fewest attempts and holding teams to just 35.9% since the break (33.6% on the season). Beasley takes 53% of his shots from 3 so this should be a difficult matchup for him. Knicks hold opposing SGs to just 41.1% from the field which is the best in the league. Before he got suspended, he was playing huge minutes but we are yet to see that with just 29,31 (little bit of foul trouble in latest) in his two since returning and the emergence of Nowell gives Finch some options at the 2 spot. While he was out, Edwards usage really spiked and it really doesn’t seem like he’s going to be giving any of that up so it means Beasley is third fiddle behind him and Kat. Over the 2 game sample Edwards has a team high 30.1% usage (30.4% over last 14), Kat is at 25.6% (29.3% over last 14) and Beasley at 22.3% which is down a touch from the 23.8% on the season. His touch time since coming back is down somewhat significantly too, with 1.4 minutes of touch time down from 1.9 minutes which has resulted in his drives coming way down from 5.7 per game to having just 5 total over the last 2.

• Malik Beasley UNDER 18.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit

Spurs vs Kings 11:40am AEST

“Has had an interesting stretch over his last 8 games. Crushed against Detroit with 14, crushed against Bulls with 20 then got into a ton of foul trouble playing less than 10 first half mins against the Cavs finishing with 8, then had 4 straight tough matchups against the Bucks, Hornets and Clippers x2 before going off against last game against the Bulls with 20. Gets an awesome spot here against the Kings who comfortably give up the most PITP on the season which is where Jakob does his damage with a crazy 88.5% of his points coming from the paint. Like this line at 9.5 (much prefer than 10.5 at plus money) as it’s just 5 buckets for the big man. Kings also give up a staggering 1.28 PPP against the roll man which is the worst in the league.”

Cashed in the first quarter last game and more than happy to come back to him here. He was so involved with the offence setting screens just about every possession which just creates a ton of opportunities for his guys to find him (not if it’s Dejounte who just goes up with a jumper every time). With Holmes chasing blocks so often there’s going to be plenty more put-back opportunities (he had 7 o boards) and missed this last time but Sacramento give up the most points per miss on put-backs in the league. As mentioned above, I really like the over 9.5 as it’s just 5 buckets so taking the lower price, but including the 15+ as he should be busy again and had 17 yesterday. He didn’t close yesterday as the Spurs were trailing and needed some extra offence, but if they are playing from in front could push into the mid 30s.

• Jakob Poeltl over 9.5 Points @ 1.72 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 14.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

*** Laptop ran out of charge and lost my word document with the write ups sorry everyone. Got lucky with Theo last game as he only played limited minutes and was playing off ball a lot, but with no Poku or Jerome should be set for huge minutes here in a much more ball dominant roll. Tatum has cleared this 9 of his last 11 and gets a good matchup. No Wall sets up KPJ for a big game in a good matchup – blowout an obvious concern but it’s hard to pass up on and could play garbage time.

Staking Plan – 6.9 units out

• Caris Levert UNDER 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
• Malik Beasley UNDER 18.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jakob Poeltl over 9.5 Points @ 1.72 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 14.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Theo Maledon over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Theo Maledon over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jayson Tatum over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.10 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 6.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Andre Drummond over 13.5 Rebounds @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
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