Soward tips State of Origin Game II: “Embarrassed” Maroons will make big game of it at Suncorp

Former rugby league star Jamie Soward joins The Sporting Base to talk all things State of Origin 2021: ahead of Game 2 in Brisbane, the NRL champ tips the Blues to “get the job done,” if Queensland can’t overcome the shock of their Townsville capitulation.

State of Origin time — there’s nothing quite like it.

This Sunday, the game’s greatest rivalry heads to Suncorp with the 2021 series on the line. A Trbojevic-led Blues blew the Maroons off the park in Townsville, and the Maroons must overcome massive odds to keep their chances alive.

Ahead of game two, The Sporting Base sat down with Jamie Soward.

The former Blues star has run the ruler over Queensland’s “slim” hopes, and lined up the key battles where New South Wales can potentially turn the screws to go up to 2-0 in their campaign ⁠— and win the series ⁠— on June 27.

From “embarrassed” Queensland lifting in the series, to Freddy’s lopsided 0-3 record at Suncorp, and Reece Walsh’s debut, here’s all the biggest elements that will define Origin II.

Don’t expect “shell-shocked” QLD again

Queensland has reshuffled ahead of their must-win Game 2 decider at Suncorp Stadium, including bringing back veteran forward Josh Papalii to partner Christian Welch, and picking young bolter Reece Walsh to take the number one jersey. It’s a young team, yes, but Soward says don’t expect the same as their Game 1 collapse.

Soward: I think the Queensland side for Game 2 is far stronger than Game 1. You look at Papalii, Welch ⁠— hopefully, for Queensland fans, he plays the whole game ⁠— having them there will settle the team a lot. Valentine Holmes is a fantastic Origin winger, and Dane  Gagai is always class, I can’t see him playing two bad games in a row. There’s those young players, yes, but they have experience now too. Papalii, Andrew McCullough has been playing for 14 years, Ben Hunt has been there and done it all before, he’s outstanding at Origin level.

It’s a much more balanced side, and they have these guys now where if there is something going wrong ⁠— like Game 1 ⁠— they have guys that can steady the ship. Last time out he had AJ Brimson, now he has a veteran playmaker in Ben Hunt. I don’t think we’ll see a big scoreline either. Queensland would be embarrassing, hurting. They’ve got a point to prove, so I think it will be a very tight game this time.

Can Suncorp be Maroons’ 18th man?

The “Townsville element” was talked up ahead of Game 1, but as the Blues ran in try after try, the Maroons faithful fell very, very silent. This time around, the game’s greatest rivalry returns to an old stomping ground ⁠— “the cauldron” that is Suncorp ⁠— and Soward believes it may be a lift for both teams in the contest.

Soward: Queensland will be looking for a lift from the fans, yes, but if they come out and play like they did in Townsville again, we’ll see the same silence fall over the place. The Maroons’ life in this series is very dependent on how well Suncorp can play for them, and if the Blues can do the same as they did two weeks ago, I think that element just disappears.

Maybe it spurs the Blues on heavily as well, it’s been a long, long time since New South Wales has won two games in Queensland to win a series, so Freddy’s fellas I think might even be motivated to tick Townsville off, tick Brisbane off, and really stick it to Queensland.

“20 minutes will decide the game”

There are 80 minutes to play on Sunday night, but only 1/4th of that will be “vital” for both the desperate home side, and the travelling Blues, says Soward ⁠— whoever can gain ascendancy in the opening stanza, whether it be through points, rock-solid defending, or simple field position, should go on to win the game.

Soward: I think whoever wins that first 20 minutes wins the game. That’s the kind of feeling that I’m getting. When I played in 2011 we played a series decider in Queensland, game three, we focused on that first twenty minutes because we knew if we could be even in that hostile environment, with calls going against us, we knew that we could outlast them for the entire match.

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If New South Wales can weather that storm early, turn them away, turn them away, it will dishearten the Queenslanders ⁠— the players and the fans alike ⁠— and that may well be the end of the game. We saw the Blues do something similar in Game 1 with the outside backs smashing down the door early, and that set the tone to get that massive, massive score. There’s a big chance NSW can do that again: if we see them win the first twenty again, I can see them racking up a score.

Freddy’s unwanted 0-3 record

New South Wales may have racked up a 50-8 scoreline, but there’s another number coach Brad Fittler has been touting in the media ahead of Game 2: 0-3. That’s his record at Suncorp Stadium since taking the Origin reins in 2018, and it’s dire reading for the Blues fans that are hoping they can polish off the series this Sunday.

Soward: Oh yeah [Freddy] has a terrible record there. I think he’s lost every game up there, hasn’t he? Yeah… he’ll be looking for the boys to lift for him, I believe. The trick there, and I think Freddy will have them doing this already, is just playing it like it’s any other game. It’s just one element of this massive game, and if the boys get that 0-3 record out of their minds that’ll be big for them. Freddy bringing it up is interesting, but he’s been there before and I’d say he has a plan for getting the job done in take four.

“Dynamite” Walsh: Origin wildcard

“If you’re good enough, you’re old enough” — That’s the age-old adage we’ve heard repeated again and again since Paul Green named Warriors dynamo Reece Walsh in his no.1 jumper. While he’s hoping the Blues give him a warm Origin welcome, Soward is expecting Walsh to slot right in.

Soward: I kinda didn’t want him to play! He’s been dynamite. From both sides of the coin, it’s an interesting one. He could be in for a long night if the Blues do come out again like Game 1, but I think he can do something special for Queensland if he’s given the chance. He’s a super, super talent, he’s one of those guys that I sit down to watch every week at the moment just to see what he’s going to do.

I think he’ll handle it okay… I think New South Wales will target him, but I think he can learn on the run. The way the game is being played and refereed at the moment suits Walsh a lot, so I’m interested to see how he goes. That being said, as a Blues fan, I hope he has a rough night!

So who scores first?

Knowing everything that’s been laid out on the table ahead of State of Origin Game 2, we can now put together three of the best first try-scorer bets for The Sporting Base readers:

Tom Trbojevic — $9.50 on TopSport

• Who else but the hat-trick hero? Jamie Soward may not have squared up Turbo specifically — he included Latrell too  — but he’s expecting big things from the Blues centre, and so we’re backing the Manly fullback to get his name on the scoresheet early.

Valentine Holmes — $14 on TopSport

• The Sporting Base tipped him to crack the Blues early in Game 1 and he failed to deliver; this time around though, he’s back on the wing for the Maroons, where he’s a proven scorer. Add the Suncorp element, and he seems destined to cross the line.

Reece Walsh — $20 on TopSport

• Can you imagine? Queensland is tipped to have all the possession early — it’s their “cauldron,” after all — and Walsh has already shown he’s got magic at his fingertips. If he’s to pop up, that first 20 minutes is a top shout.

Hear more of Jamie Soward’s thoughts in his weekly “Sweet & Soward” podcast.

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