Everything revolves around Todd Payten for the North Queensland Cowboys in 2026 (which usually checks out, considering he’s the head coach), but with the 47-year-old helmsman having achieved nothing in five years, it’s beyond crunch time.
Considering the Cowboys have superstars in their squad like Tom Dearden, Scott Drinkwater, and Reuben Cotter, as well as veteran forwards like Jason Taumalolo and Coen Hess, paired with exciting young guns in Jaxon Purdue, Heilum Luki, and Zac Laybutt, it’s near-mindboggling the Cowboys have been languishing outside finals for so long.
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This Sporting Base writer has written about it in the past, but it comes down to one thing: Payten.
And this year, with other teams improving, it could see the Cowboys run last.
Let’s get it out of the way — this squad could very easily be playing finals, and a better coach would be getting the team humming well. Should it be Wayne Bennett or Trent Robinson at the helm, I’d be leaning between 7th-10th.
But reality is, it’s not Robinson, Bennett, Ivan Cleary, or Craig Bellamy here, and so since Payten’s Rooke of the Year season in 2022, when the Cowboys finished third and made the preliminary finals, they’ve averaged a whole lot worse: Ninth, or worse, is how the three years afterwards come out, with the on-paper finishes as 11th, fifth (gone in semis), and 12th.
Everything got even worse in 2025, too, with that twelfth-place finish patching over the fact that Payten’s players conceded 684 as the second-worst defence in the league. Only the Gold Coast, 719, did any worse at the back.
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This Base writer thinks there are two major avenues for the Cowboys. Should the North Queensland bosses stick to their (now incorrect) guns and keep Payten around for the season, there’s every chance the defence keeps failing.
Should that happen, there’s every chance the club earns its first wooden spoon since 2000.
Or, should the team start 1–3, 0–4, or so, and the club bosses swing the axe, things could very well improve.
Either way, it seems like Payten has lost the identity that made his side so great in 2022, with defence and a northern iron both right at the heart of that standout campaign. Four years later, it’s beyond time for a divorce.
Predicted side: 1. Scott Drinkwater 2. Murray Taulagi 3. Zac Laybutt 4. Tom Chester 5. Braidon Burns 6. Jaxon Purdue 7. Tom Dearden 8. Jason Taumalolo 9. Reed Mahoney 10. Coen Hess 11. Heilum Luki 12. John Bateman 13. Reuben Cotter Bench: 14. Soni Luke 15. Matt Lodge 16. Sam McIntyre 17. Kai O’Donnell 18. Thomas Mikaele 19. Liam Sutton
Coach: Todd Payten (sixth season)
Biggest loss: Reece Robson Biggest gain: Reed Mahoney
First five: Knights (Vegas), Tigers (A), Titans (H), Storm (H), Dragons (A)
Last year’s finish: 12th
Predicted ’26 finish: Spoon battle (14–17th)
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Unibet odds: Premiers: $36, Top 4: $8.50, Final 8: $3.40, Most Losses: $10
