The official team lists are in for Raiders vs Broncos, with Reece Walsh ruled out for the season and Hayze Perham taking over at fullback for Brisbane. Canberra regain Simi Sasagi and Corey Horsburgh, while Josh Papalii starts in his final home appearance, creating several interesting try scorer and player-prop angles.
Xavier Savage
Savage remains on Canberra’s wing and gets a Brisbane side that has conceded 40, 40 and 30 points in its past three matches. That makes Canberra’s outside backs particularly appealing.
Our Tip: Xavier Savage – Anytime Try Scorer
Kaeo Weekes
Weekes stays at fullback against a Broncos side missing Walsh and coming off a 40-6 loss to the Warriors. His support play makes him dangerous if Canberra breaks Brisbane through the middle.
Our Tip: Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Simi Sasagi
Sasagi returns directly to the centres, pushing Savelio Tamale back to the extended bench. His return gives Canberra another powerful runner on the edge.
Our Tip: Simi Sasagi – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Raiders
Morgan Smithies
Smithies is ruled out with concussion, forcing Ata Mariota from prop to lock and changing Canberra’s middle rotation.
Betting impact: Mariota’s positional switch makes his involvement markets worth watching, although I’d prefer Canberra’s established attacking players.
Raiders Middle
Papalii starts alongside Joseph Tapine, with Mariota at lock, but they’ll face Payne Haas, Xavier Willison and Patrick Carrigan.
Our Tip: Payne Haas – Over Run Metres
Canberra’s Edge Defence
Even without Walsh, Brisbane retain genuine strike through Kotoni Staggs, Deine Mariner and Ezra Mam.
Our Tip: Kotoni Staggs – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Winners – Broncos
Hayze Perham
Walsh’s syndesmosis injury gives Perham the No.1 jersey. The move to fullback should dramatically increase his carries and kick-return involvement.
Our Tip: Hayze Perham – Over Run Metres
Ben Hunt
Hunt moves into halfback alongside Ezra Mam, giving Brisbane an experienced organiser following another reshuffle of their spine.
Our Tip: Ben Hunt – 1+ Try Assist
Xavier Willison
Willison scored Brisbane’s only try against the Warriors while also producing 98 run metres and 43 tackles. He retains his starting prop role this week.
Our Tip: Xavier Willison – Over Tackles
Biggest Losers – Broncos
Reece Walsh
This is comfortably the biggest team-list blow. Walsh has undergone surgery on a syndesmosis injury suffered against the Warriors and is out for the remainder of Brisbane’s regular season.
Our Tip: Raiders – Over Team Total Points
Broncos Edge Defence
Brisbane have conceded 110 points across their past three games, and now face a Canberra side averaging 35 points across its past four home matches.
Our Tip: Xavier Savage – Anytime Try Scorer
Brisbane’s Spine
Perham, Mam, Hunt and Billy Walters form Brisbane’s starting spine, with Walsh unavailable. That’s another significant change for a side that has lost four consecutive games.
Our Tip: Raiders – Over Team Total Points
Early Betting Verdict
Brisbane’s defensive form combined with Walsh’s absence makes Canberra’s attacking markets the obvious place to start. The Raiders scored 24 points in last week’s win over Cronulla and have averaged 35 points across their past four games at home.
Xavier Savage – Anytime Try Scorer
Savage is the Canberra outside back I want to target. Brisbane’s recent defensive record creates a favourable setup for a winger with his speed and finishing ability.
Our Tip: Xavier Savage – Anytime Try Scorer
Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Weekes gives us another way to attack Brisbane’s defence. His support play through the middle could be particularly dangerous if Tapine and Papalii establish momentum.
Our Tip: Kaeo Weekes – Anytime Try Scorer
Kotoni Staggs – Anytime Try Scorer
If we’re looking for a Brisbane scorer, Staggs is my preferred option. Hunt and Mam still give the Broncos enough creativity to manufacture opportunities despite Walsh’s absence.
Our Tip: Kotoni Staggs – Anytime Try Scorer
Ben Hunt – Try Assists
Hunt’s move to halfback puts him directly in charge of Brisbane’s attack and should increase his involvement around the line.
Our Tip: Ben Hunt – 1+ Try Assist
Payne Haas – Run Metres
Canberra’s reshuffled middle and Smithies’ absence provide a good setup for Haas, who remains Brisbane’s premier metre-maker.
Our Tip: Payne Haas – Over Run Metres
Raiders – Team Total Points
This is the team market I like most. Brisbane have conceded 40 points to the Warriors, 40 to the Dolphins and 30 to Newcastle in their past three games, while Canberra have been scoring freely at home.
Our Tip: Raiders – Over Team Total Points
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Xavier Savage – Anytime Try Scorer
The combination of Brisbane’s defensive form and Walsh’s absence makes Raiders try scorers the area I want to attack. Savage gives us a genuine finishing threat on the edge against a Broncos side that has conceded 110 points across its past three matches.
Our Tip: Xavier Savage – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet
Simi Sasagi – Anytime Try Scorer
Sasagi returns directly into Canberra’s centres and could offer a better price than Savage or Weekes. Against a Brisbane defence struggling badly for points conceded, he’s the team-list-driven value selection.
Our Tip: Simi Sasagi – Anytime Try Scorer
