The National Rugby League (NRL) play-off contenders have been locked in following a thrilling final round of regular season fixtures.
The Canberra Raiders will head into the play-offs as the bookmakers’ favourites, but it would be foolish to write off the other teams who also have their eye on the title.
NRL Play-Offs 2025 – Format & Fixtures
he NRL finals series is one of the most intense play-off systems in Australian sport, with the top eight teams battling for the title across four weeks. Here’s how the fixtures stack up in week one:
- Friday, September 12 – Qualifying Final: Melbourne Storm (2) vs Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs (3) at AAMI Park
- Saturday, September 13 – Elimination Final: New Zealand Warriors (6) vs Penrith Panthers (7) at Go Media Stadium, Auckland
- Saturday, September 13 – Elimination Final: Cronulla Sharks (5) vs Sydney Roosters (8) at Sharks Stadium
- Sunday, September 14 – Qualifying Final: Canberra Raiders (1) vs Brisbane Broncos (4) at GIO Stadium
NRL Play-Offs – Week One Preview
The Storm and Bulldogs will get week one underway with a mouth-watering contest. Melbourne are the favourites on paper, but injuries and suspension could scupper their hopes.
Attacking lynchpin Jahrome Hughes is out of the game with a fractured forearm. Ryan Papenhuyzen is yet to return due to concussion concerns, while Nelson Asofa-Solomona is suspended.
The Storm will still fancy their chances. The Bulldogs are not the most threatening team in attack, but they have a notoriously stingy defence, which could come in handy.
After the curtain-raiser, the Warriors will be hoping to thwart the Panthers in Auckland, but the odds are stacked against them. Without Luke Metcalf, the Warriors have been unconvincing.
The Panthers are looking to make history. No team has won the title after finishing outside of the top four in three decades. But if any team can buck that trend, it’s the Panthers.
The Sharks will need to come up with a new winning formula after losing talisman Nicho Hynes to suspension. The Roosters will be hoping to take advantage of their poor play-off record.
The Roosters are unfancied, but Trent Robinson has moulded a youthful side into one of the most dangerous attacking outfits in the competition and they could spring a surprise.
The Raiders will be hoping to round off week one in style when they face the Broncos. They have been the surprise package of the season, and there is no reason why they can’t go all the way.
Their defence might be their undoing. But if they can get that sorted, they are in an excellent position to end the Panthers’ reign of terror and their 31-year title drought.
Top Two Seeds Will be Tough to Beat
The Storm and Raiders are the top two seeds in the play-offs and should mount a strong bid to be crowned as the NRL champions for 2025.
By contrast, the Warriors have been written off by the bookmakers in the build-up to the play-offs. Despite this, Kiwi punters will wager heavily on the team.
The Warriors’ participation will send NRL betting in New Zealand through the roof, and it would be a fairytale story if they won the title for the first time.
They have only come close to winning the championship twice in their history, and the last time they had a shot at the holy grail was back in 2011.
Fourteen years after their humbling defeat against the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, the Warriors are once again carrying the hopes of the nation on their shoulders.
Their elimination clash against the Panthers may be their final stop. But if they find a way to get past the most dominant team of the last half-decade, history could be within their reach.
