The official team lists are in for Warriors vs Knights, with Te Maire Martin returning at halfback for the Warriors while Newcastle regain Dane Gagai but lose Dominic Young, Tyson Frizell and Phoenix Crossland. Those changes open up several interesting anytime try scorer, try assist and player-prop markets for punters.
Biggest Winners – Warriors
Alofiana Khan-Pereira
Khan-Pereira has scored six tries in his past seven games and remains on the wing for a Warriors side that has piled on 155 points across its past four matches.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
Te Maire Martin
Martin returns at halfback after missing three matches with a hamstring injury, reuniting with Chanel Harris-Tavita in the halves.
Our Tip: Te Maire Martin – 1+ Try Assist
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Luke Laulilii
With Dallin Watene-Zelezniak out with a broken collarbone, Laulilii comes onto the right wing for his Warriors club debut. He scored 10 tries in 17 NRL appearances for the Tigers before joining the Warriors.
Our Tip: Luke Laulilii – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Losers – Warriors
Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
DWZ’s collarbone injury removes one of the Warriors’ established finishers and gives Laulilii his opportunity on the wing.
Betting Impact: Laulilii becomes a potentially attractive anytime option if Sportsbet or TAB offer a bigger price because of his limited Warriors experience.
Adam Pompey
Ali Leiataua returns at centre after missing last week’s win through illness, pushing Pompey back to the interchange.
Betting Impact: Pompey’s reduced role makes his individual markets far less appealing.
Warriors Edge Defence
Newcastle regain Gagai and still have Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew together on their dangerous left edge.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Biggest Winners – Knights
Greg Marzhew
Marzhew has scored seven tries in his past six games, making him easily the most attractive Newcastle player in the anytime market.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
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Dane Gagai
Gagai returns from a hamstring injury and goes straight back into the centres. His return strengthens a Newcastle backline that still contains Ponga, Best and Marzhew.
Our Tip: Dane Gagai – Anytime Try Scorer
Harrison Graham
Phoenix Crossland’s knee surgery promotes Graham into the starting hooking role. That should give him a significant increase in minutes and defensive involvement.
Our Tip: Harrison Graham – Over Tackles
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Biggest Losers – Knights
Dominic Young
Young is suspended, forcing Fletcher Hunt from centre onto the wing.
Betting Impact: Newcastle lose one of their premier finishers, making Marzhew an even clearer target in their try-scoring markets.
Phoenix Crossland
Crossland underwent knee surgery to address a meniscus issue and will miss this game, although Newcastle expect him back for the opening week of the finals.
Betting Impact: Graham’s starting role makes his tackle market one of the clearest team-list-driven props in this game.
Tyson Frizell
Frizell is suspended for one match, with Francis Manuleleua returning from concussion to take his place in the back row.
Betting Impact: Newcastle lose an experienced edge forward against a Warriors pack that has been unchanged in the starting 13 for seven consecutive games.
Early Betting Verdict
The Warriors’ try-scoring markets are where I’d start. They have scored 155 points across their past four games, regain Martin at halfback and face a Newcastle side missing three regular starters. The Warriors have also won five of their past six against the Knights, while Newcastle haven’t won in New Zealand since 2019.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
Six tries from his past seven matches makes AKP the Warriors finisher I want to target first.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
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Luke Laulilii – Anytime Try Scorer
Laulilii is the more speculative play. He’s replacing DWZ on the wing and already has a strong NRL scoring record, having crossed 10 times in 17 games for the Tigers.
Our Tip: Luke Laulilii – Anytime Try Scorer
Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
If we’re taking a Knights scorer, Marzhew is clearly my preference. He’s crossed seven times in his past six matchesand has Best inside him.
Our Tip: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
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Te Maire Martin – Try Assists
Martin’s return to No.7 puts him straight back into the centre of a Warriors attack that has been scoring freely.
Our Tip: Te Maire Martin – 1+ Try Assist
Kalyn Ponga – Try Assists
Newcastle’s forward pack is depleted, but Ponga still has Best, Marzhew and the returning Gagai as attacking options.
Our Tip: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Harrison Graham – Tackles
Crossland’s absence gives Graham the starting No.9 jersey and should substantially increase his defensive workload.
Our Tip: Harrison Graham – Over Tackles
Best Bet From The Team Lists
Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
Khan-Pereira has six tries from his past seven games, while the Warriors have scored 155 points across their past four matches.
With Martin returning at halfback and Newcastle missing Young, Frizell and Crossland, AKP is the Warriors player I’d target first.
Our Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
I’d also check Khan-Pereira’s 2+ Tries market with Sportsbet and TAB given the Warriors’ recent scoring form.
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Value Bet
Luke Laulilii – Anytime Try Scorer
This is the team-list-driven value play.
Laulilii gets the right-wing spot because of DWZ’s injury and scored 10 tries in 17 NRL games for the Tigers before joining the Warriors. He’s also averaged 180 metres and produced 22 tackle breaks across his six NSW Cup appearances for the Warriors.
If the bookmakers offer a noticeably bigger price than Khan-Pereira, he’s worth considering.
Our Tip: Luke Laulilii – Anytime Try Scorer
Team List Betting Summary
Best Bet: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – Anytime Try Scorer
Value Bet: Luke Laulilii – Anytime Try Scorer
Knights Try Scorer: Greg Marzhew – Anytime Try Scorer
Other Knights Try Scorer: Dane Gagai – Anytime Try Scorer
Warriors Playmaker Prop: Te Maire Martin – 1+ Try Assist
Knights Playmaker Prop: Kalyn Ponga – 1+ Try Assist
Tackle Prop: Harrison Graham – Over Tackles
Higher-Odds Play: Alofiana Khan-Pereira – 2+ Tries
