NFL Season Preview: Josh Allen to lead Bills to the Super Bowl

The NFL season is finally upon and us and it looks like it may be one of the hardest to call in years.

The AFC side is absolutely stacked with teams like the Chargers, Broncos, Raiders and Ravens making the offseason additions to really challenge teams like the Chiefs and the Bills.

In the NFC it looks like the same contenders in the Buccaneers, Rams and Packers but the 49ers may be the best of them if quarterback Trey Lance can come in and be as good as expected.

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2020/21 Season results

• Profit/Loss: +22.57 units
• ROI: 10%
• Strike rate: 50%

2021/22 Season results

• Profit/Loss: +16.25 units
• ROI: 5%
• Strike rate: 47%

Bills have the easiest path to the Super Bowl in the AFC 

The Bills start the season as 7/2 favourites to win the conference and it is easy to see why. Josh Allen is MVP favourite – more on that later – and they look to have the easiest path to the top seed and home field advantage of all the contenders for the conference. The division is much weaker than the Chiefs’ AFC West to start with, but they also have the 14th toughest schedule – the Chiefs are number one. They have made some additions but it is Von Miller that headlines the group and he can make this already good defence even better. I believe that they can not only win the AFC, but they can go on and win the Super Bowl.  

Kansas City lost Tyreek Hill in the offseason, but they still have one of the best rosters in the league and of course, Patrick Mahomes. But with every other team in the division making big leaps – at least on paper – coming out on top there may be the biggest battle. I love the Chiefs and it is hard to back against them, but at just 5/1 for the conference, it looks a little short when there are lots of things in the negative column.  

Of the outsiders in the conference, last season’s runner up the Bengals looks the tastiest. They have improved since last season in that team that had a fairytale run to the Super Bowl and the likes of Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase are another year older and more experienced. Burrow looks like a player for the big games already and 9/1 could look pretty generous in a month or two.  

Picks: Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Conference 4.30 with TopSport  

Buffalo Bills 6.50 to win the Super Bowl with TopSport.  

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Can Brady go on one last run? 

The Buccaneers start as favourites to win the NFC in what looks likely to be Tom Brady’s final season. The team once again looks so strong. With big pieces on offence, they have improved on the other side of the ball and have every chance of a second Lombardi Trophy in three years. Brady is 45 now, but there is a very strong case that he was MVP last season so he still has it in him. Where the AFC realistically has 8 or 9 teams that you could make a case for, the NFC just does not have that depth this year and it is likely to come down to them or one of the teams out of the West.  

The 49ers are the team that is hardest to predict of the contenders, but that also means at 9.0 that they may be the best value. The roster is absolutely stacked from top to bottom. The only real question mark is in Lance who will take over as starter in his second season. The sky is the limit for him. He is an athletic freak, but he does lack experience, not just at the NFL level but in general. But the reports from camp have been good and I have faith that he can get it done.  

The Rams are defending champions and have every chance of repeating, but I just prefer the value of their divisional rivals. They have not lost too many important pieces from the Super Bowl winning team and where they have they have perhaps improved. Allen Robinson for Odell Beckham for example. They did have a lot of things go their way at the end though last season, even if they were excellent. It is hard to see Cooper Kupp repeating the heights of his record breaking season for example.  

The Packers will always be a contender while they have Aaron Rodgers, but the loss of Davante Adams in what was already a receiving group that was lacking in talent is a big issue. Who the reigning MVP will throw to is a big worry. It is going to need Allen Lazard or one of the rookies like Christian Watson to step up and fill the huge role that Adams has left behind. 

Pick: San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Conference 9.0 with TopSport 

Josh Allen can win MVP 

Lets face it, MVP is a quarterback award. It has now been a decade since Adrian Peterson was named MVP – the last non-QB to do so. I have already said that I think the Bills have the easiest route to the AFC Championship and number one seed in that conference, and Josh Allen has every chance of being named MVP if that happens. They could well have the best record in the whole of the NFL and Allen, the favourite for the award will put up big numbers as we have seen before.  

A good season for Tom Brady in his final season would certainly have the sort of narrative that it takes to win the award and he is the big threat from the NFC side. But I like Allen to lead the Bills to 13 or 14 wins and that should be enough for him to win the award for the first time.  

Coach of the year is often a most improved team award and the Jaguars are a team I think we see drastically improve. Urban Meyer had an awful time in Jacksonville but there is some talent there – most notably second year quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Doug Pederson is a good coach and certainly one that can make this team a lot better. 18.0 could be a steal.  

Offensive player of the year is an award where we can see some other positions come into play and Ja’Marr Chase is a player we could see step up another level. He is an electric playmaker and in a great offence he could put up huge numbers. 31.0 is a great price for a player so talented.  

Micah Parsons is the next in line for greatness on the defensive side of the ball and that can start this season. Back him to be Defensive Player of the Year.  

Picks: Josh Allen to win MVP 7.5 with TopSport 

Tom Brady to win MVP 9.0 with TopSport 

Doug Pederson to win coach of the year 18.0 with TopSport 

Ja’Marr Chase to win offensive player of the year 31.0 with TopSport 

Micah Parson to win defensive player of the year 9.0 with TopSport 

Don’t miss out on our expert tips each and every week of the season by subscribing here: https://thesportingbase.com/product-category/subscriptions/nfl-subscriptions/

Expert Tips

• Buffalo Bills to win the AFC Conference 4.30 with TopSport
• Buffalo Bills 6.50 to win the Super Bowl with TopSport
• San Francisco 49ers to win the NFC Conference 9.0 with TopSport

Awards

• Josh Allen to win MVP 7.5 with TopSport 
• Tom Brady to win MVP 9.0 with TopSport 
• Doug Pederson to win coach of the year 18.0 with TopSport 
• Ja’Marr Chase to win offensive player of the year 31.0 with TopSport 
• Micah Parson to win defensive player of the year 9.0 with TopSport 

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